Cross-border capital flow has generally started well, and the supply and demand of domestic foreign exchange market has maintained a basic balance

2023-03-16

On March 15, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced the data of foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks and foreign exchange collection and payment by banks on behalf of customers in February 2023. According to the data, in US dollars, in February, banks settled foreign exchange of US $182.9 billion and sold foreign exchange of US $184.8 billion. From January to February this year, the banks have settled foreign exchange of 358.2 billion US dollars and sold foreign exchange of 357.5 billion US dollars. In February, the foreign-related income of bank agents was 470.2 billion dollars, and the external payment was 474 billion dollars. In the first two months of this year, the total foreign-related income of bank agents reached US $915.9 billion, and the total external payments reached US $884.6 billion. Referring to the situation of China's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure in February 2023, Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and press spokesman, said that the supply and demand of China's foreign exchange market remained basically balanced in February. In February, the scale of bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange was basically the same, and the non-bank departments such as enterprises and individuals tended to balance their foreign-related income and expenditure. After the start of the Spring Festival, the import of raw materials and replenishment of inventories of enterprises increased, and the relevant foreign-related expenditures increased, reflecting the seasonal characteristics of enterprises' production and operation. According to the situation in the first two months of 2023, the non-bank sector's foreign-related revenue and expenditure surplus was 31.4 billion US dollars, the cross-border capital flow started well on the whole, and the domestic foreign exchange market supply and demand remained basically balanced. At the same time, the foreign exchange trading behavior of market entities remains rational. According to Wang Chunying, in February, the exchange rate (the ratio between the customer's foreign exchange sales to the bank and the customer's foreign-related foreign exchange income) measured the willingness to settle foreign exchange was 70.3%, an increase of 8.9 percentage points month-on-month, indicating that the market entities presented a rational trading mode of "settlement at high exchange rates", and the willingness to settle foreign exchange increased. The foreign exchange sales rate (the ratio of the customer's foreign exchange purchase from the bank to the customer's foreign-related foreign exchange expenditure), which measures the willingness to sell foreign exchange, was 68.6%, basically flat on the month-on-month basis, indicating that the willingness of market entities to purchase foreign exchange was generally stable. In addition, trade in goods continues to play a fundamental role in stabilizing cross-border capital flows. Wang Chunying said that the surplus of foreign revenue and expenditure of goods trade in February was 25.9 billion US dollars, which was basically the same as that of the same period in 2022, and remained relatively large. The service trade deficit was US $4.3 billion, which fell slightly on a month-on-month basis and year-on-year basis. While the cross-border travel expenditure recovered in an orderly manner, the export of some emerging service industries increased steadily. "In the future, China's foreign exchange market has a foundation and conditions to maintain stable operation." Wang Chunying said that the current policy effect of supporting economic growth has been further manifested, the pace of expansion of enterprise production and operation activities has been accelerated, the level of China's economic prosperity has continued to rise, and the foundation for cross-border capital flow to maintain stability has become more solid. At the same time, the opening of China's financial market continues to advance, and the investment and risk aversion attributes of RMB assets are prominent, which will still attract foreign capital to steadily invest in the domestic market. In addition, China's foreign exchange market is more resilient, and the market entities are more mature and rational, which can better adapt to the changes in the external environment. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:Securities Dairy

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