Top level design for expanding domestic demand: potential consumption in four fields

2022-12-16

Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the Outline), which proposed to "comprehensively promote consumption and accelerate the upgrading of consumption quality", and made deployment to promote consumption from four aspects: continuously improving traditional consumption, actively developing service consumption, accelerating the cultivation of new consumption, and vigorously advocating green and low-carbon consumption. In this regard, Yang Delong, the chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said that consumption has become the most important engine to promote economic growth. In 2021, consumption will contribute more than 60% to economic growth. Expanding domestic demand through stimulating consumption is conducive to promoting China's economic transformation. The respondents generally believed that with the strong support of policies, traditional consumption, service consumption, new consumption and green low-carbon consumption became new highlights of consumption upgrading. After the optimization and improvement of epidemic prevention and control policies, consumption recovery is inevitable, and the consumption track is expected to go out of a new growth opportunity period. "In the context of the global economic downturn, stimulating domestic demand is the general direction of stabilizing the economy and growth in 2023. With the strong support of consumption promotion policies, China's consumption is expected to further recover, so traditional consumption, service consumption, new consumption, green low-carbon consumption and other fields related to large consumption are expected to usher in demand growth." Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund under Paipai.com, told reporters. Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Wealth Creation Investment, told the reporter that the consumption promotion policies have emerged frequently recently, and the consumer market is expected to recover next year. Traditional consumption and service consumption will show more growth driven by the repair of consumption scenarios; As it conforms to the development direction of China's consumption upgrading, the growth rate of new consumption will be higher; Green and low carbon is the global development direction. China has formed a certain industrial scale and competitiveness. In addition, product penetration is increasing, and policy support is still increasing. It may be the most prominent industrial direction of growth in the future. What are the investment opportunities of the four major tracks? For the upcoming 2023, where are the investment opportunities in the consumption field? In terms of specific configuration, the institutions interviewed suggest that investors focus on following four major areas. First, traditional consumption. Chen Li, the chief economist of Sichuan Finance Securities and the director of the research institute, told reporters that in terms of subdividing the track in the traditional consumption field, the overall domestic consumption will be under pressure in 2022 due to the impact of the epidemic. In 2023, with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and macroeconomic repair, the purchasing power of residents is expected to increase, and the food and beverage industry is expected to recover; The household appliances and building materials industries belong to the downstream of the real estate industry, and their landscape is closely related to the real estate industry. Since October, the domestic support policies for the real estate industry have been released, the financing pressure of the real estate industry has been eased, and the risks have been gradually released. The industry is expected to usher in restoration in 2023, while the downstream household appliances and building materials industries are also expected to recover. Second, service consumption. Chen Li believes that since the outbreak of the epidemic, countries all over the world have increased their investment in the field of public health expenditure in terms of subdividing the track in the field of service consumption. At present, with the construction of the domestic medical security system becoming increasingly healthy

Edit:wangwenting    Responsible editor:xiaomai

Source:china.cn

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