Recently, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in the first 11 months of this year, China's total import and export value was 38.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, the export reached 21.84 trillion yuan, up 11.9%; Imports reached 16.5 trillion yuan, up 4.6%; The trade surplus was 5.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.8%. In addition, the import and export of private enterprises grew rapidly. In the first 11 months, the import and export of private enterprises reached 19.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%, accounting for 50.6% of China's total foreign trade value, 2.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In dollar terms, China's total import and export value in the first 11 months was US $5.78 trillion, up 5.9%. Among them, exports reached 3.29 trillion US dollars, up 9.1%; Imports reached US $2.49 trillion, up 2%; The trade surplus was US $802.04 billion, an increase of 39%. From the single month data in November, in dollar terms, China's total import and export value in November was 522.34 billion dollars, down 9.5%. Among them, the export was 296.09 billion US dollars, down 8.7%; Imports reached 226.25 billion US dollars, down 10.6%; The trade surplus was US $69.84 billion. "In November, the export growth rate fell for the second consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, and the decline exceeded the market consensus. The main reason is that the shadow of economic recession in the United States and Europe is getting stronger and the external demand is affected." Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the Securities Daily that recently the US and European central banks have raised interest rates rapidly, and the economic downturn is obvious, which has affected China's exports. The past data also shows that China's export growth is highly correlated with the global PMI index. Wind data shows that JPMorgan Chase's global comprehensive PMI index fell to 48.0% in November, which has been in a contraction range since August. At the same time, in November, the manufacturing PMI index of developed economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan also fell below the boom and bust line. In addition, according to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in dollar terms, China's exports to the United States in November were 40.8056 billion dollars, down 25.4% over the same period last year, and 12.8 percentage points more than that in October. "Considering that the United States is currently China's largest single export market and accounts for a high proportion of China's trade surplus, exports to the United States fell sharply in November, which has a great impact on China's overall export situation. This is the main reason why the export growth in November fell faster than expected and the size of the trade surplus narrowed significantly." Wang Qing said. In terms of imports, the import volume in November fell 10.6% year on year, 9.9 percentage points higher than that in the previous month. Wang Qing believes that the main reason is that the epidemic disturbs domestic demand, and the weak export leads to the corresponding weakening of import demand generated in the export link. However, in December, the disturbance of the epidemic on industrial production and consumption is expected to be significantly alleviated, which will drive the demand for imports to recover. At the same time, in view of the lower base in the same period last year, it is expected that the year-on-year data of imports in December will be improved. (Liu Xinshe)