By the 15th of this month, the global population will reach 8 billion

2022-11-08

According to the United Nations World Population Outlook 2022 report, the global population will reach 8 billion by the 15th of this month. This number will continue to grow in the coming decades, but the growth rate will slow down and there are regional differences. [Sustained growth] AFP reported on the 7th, citing data from the United Nations Population Division, that the global population in 1950 was 2.5 billion, reaching 8 billion means more than doubling. Due to the increase of life expectancy and childbearing age population, the United Nations predicts that the global population will grow to about 8.5 billion by 2030, reach 9.7 billion by 2050, and reach a peak of about 10.4 billion in the 1980s, and maintain this level until 2100. However, a study conducted by the Institute of Health Indicators and Assessment of the University of Washington in 2020 estimated that the global population would reach its peak in 2064, but would not reach 10 billion, and would decrease to 8.8 billion by 2100. Stan Emil Walsett, the main author of the study, believes that his team used a "completely different fertility model" from the United Nations to estimate a low global population peak, between 9 billion and 10 billion. [Slowing down] Rachel Snow of the United Nations Population Fund told AFP that the annual growth rate of world population reached a peak of 2.1% between 1962 and 1965, and then dropped sharply, to less than 1% in 2020. The United Nations predicts that the annual growth rate of the global population may drop to about 0.5% by 2050 due to the continuous decline of the fertility rate. According to United Nations data, in 2021, the average fertility rate of the global population will be 2.3, that is, 2.3 children per woman in her lifetime, while the fertility rate in 1950 will be 5, which is expected to decline to 2.1 by 2050. Snow said that at present, most people in the world live in countries or regions where the fertility rate is lower than the "fertility replacement level". The fertility turnover level refers to the average of 2.1 children per woman, which means that the number of births and deaths tends to balance, and the population stops growing and remains stable. On the other hand, if the global average life expectancy continues to increase and the fertility rate decreases, the aging of the population will intensify, the demand for elderly care will increase, and the labor market and the national pension system will be affected. According to United Nations data, the global average life expectancy in 2019 will be 72.8 years, 9 years more than in 1990; By 2050, the average life expectancy is expected to reach 77.2 years. The proportion of people over 65 years old in the total population will be 10% in 2022 and will rise to 16% by 2050. [Distinct regional differences] The United Nations estimates that by 2050, more than half of the world's new population will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. According to Snow, the average age gap between different regions has never been as big as it is today. The current average age in Europe is 41.7 years, compared with 17.6 years in sub Saharan Africa. Snow believes that the average age may gradually tend to be balanced in the future, but unlike the past, where the average age of countries was mostly in the youth, the average age of countries in the future may be mostly in the elderly. According to the World

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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