On July 18, the website of Spanish Herald published a report entitled "why can't India become the new China?" The author is Javier MAS de Haas. The article believes that India is one of the largest countries in the world and is likely to become the country with the largest population in the future. However, this advantage may also be a major disadvantage. The full text is summarized as follows: India may become the most populous country on earth next year. The country will have a population of 1.429 billion more than China, and there will be enough human capital not only in Asia, but also in the world to become a leading country. Population strength and geographical area have always been the pillars of hegemony. Thanks to this, China is expected to replace the United States as the most powerful country. Similarly, India may surpass China. However, India does not seem to intend to do so. Prime Minister modi is designing a highly technical but relatively closed future. India is not eager to become a world overlord, nor is it willing to become a new world factory. With a large number of young and cheap labor, the number of births in India far exceeds the number of deaths. Its population structure is very young, with an average age of 28.4 years, 10 years younger than both China and the United States. India seems to have all the advantages: not only because its labor force is larger and younger, but also because India has just entered a cycle of infrastructure and housing investment, while China's cycle is nearing the end. Many multinationals that used to produce in China are looking for alternatives elsewhere that are cheaper labor or closer to customers. India will be an ideal replacement. The country has a young and cheap labor force, and has also trained a large number of excellent engineers and managers. They can speak English and are part of the thriving middle class. India is the fastest-growing "democracy" in a world that is going backwards. Today, India has more than 70 Unicorn enterprises, more than any other country except China and the United States. Prime Minister modi has implemented market-friendly reforms, such as privatizing Indian Airlines and reducing taxes on technology companies. Modi also successfully implemented a redistribution development strategy. The investment in welfare society usually focuses on intangible public goods, such as health and education, while modi prefers to invest in tangible goods and services. He is more willing to introduce electricity, gas and drinking water into every family; Pay for the construction of toilets to improve sanitary conditions; Open bank accounts for women, provide them with digital wallets, and deposit subsidies by the state. It is based on these measures that modi has achieved significant political achievements. International investors are still deterred. Modi has been fighting inequality and faces thorny tasks. The financial crisis in 2008 led to the stagnation of India's structural transformation in the past 30 years. Many companies went bankrupt. The economic slowdown has led to a sharp decline in the social development index. The blow of the covid-19 pandemic was also extremely heavy. The country's GDP fell by 7%, more than any other major emerging economy, and the poverty rate rose again after years of decline. At present, 270Million Indians still live in extreme poverty. Modi is an extreme Hindu nationalist, and the measures he takes are actually economic supremacy. It was he who helped to concentrate the country's industry in the hands of a few people. Land reform is another pillar of modi's policy, but it is not successful. States refuse to implement relevant reform measures and do not trust the central government. Farmers also expressed opposition because they believed that the reform would only benefit the domestic oligarchs. Capitalism has a bad reputation in India. Huge wealth is often based on the collusion between officials and businessmen. This is why the market reform proposed by modi can hardly get the support of the people. In addition, India has refused to conclude international trade agreements. For example, India is not a party to the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP). This is the largest free trade agreement in the world. The government's measures "did not address India's basic needs", that is, to provide employment opportunities for young people in labor-intensive enterprises and promote manufacturing exports. India's economy is a flashy "window economy" and an oligopoly economy. Modi arbitrarily changed the rules of the game to benefit his business allies. But this sense of insecurity has deterred international investors, who could have fully exploited the country's economic potential. India's industry lacks strength. In fact, industry is the industry that can make India a new world factory, but modi is determined to remain on the edge of the world. He prefers to confine industry to the domestic market. However, China is doing the opposite. China has been committed to using its human capital to attract external investment and technology, in order to occupy a dominant position in the value chain and make itself an indispensable key link. India is one of the largest countries in the world and is likely to become the most populous country in the future. However, this advantage may also be a major disadvantage. Young people who lack job opportunities, are poor, and are not included in the social welfare network may erupt dissatisfaction at any time. Their food supply cannot be guaranteed, and they are under the pressure of the climate crisis at any time. This dissatisfaction is bound to breed social instability, which is no different from a time bomb in a country prone to political violence. (Xinhua News Agency)