China's economic data for the first five months of this year were released on the 15th. As the effects of a series of policies for effectively coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development continued to show, in May, the marginal improvement of major indicators of the national economy and the recovery of economic operation showed momentum. As the middle of the year approaches, it is currently at a key node that determines the economic trend of the whole year. What is the trend of China's economy in the face of multiple pressures such as the increasingly complex and severe international environment and the impact of domestic epidemics? Positive changes have taken place in economic operation, and the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated In May, the added value of industries above Designated Size nationwide decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in April to a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; The total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The total import and export volume of goods increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 9.5 percentage points faster than that of the previous month; The unemployment rate in the national urban survey fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with last month The latest statistics show that with the overall improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effects of policies and measures to stabilize growth have gradually emerged, and positive changes have taken place in the operation of the national economy. In March, especially since April, due to the impact of the crisis in Ukraine and the domestic epidemic, the downward pressure on China's economy has further increased. After the overall stable start of the first quarter, the main economic indicators in April dropped significantly, and the recovery of development has encountered a "cold spring". Under multiple risks and challenges, the recovery of China's economy has not come easily. "All regions and departments have effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and made efforts to stabilize the macro-economy. The situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control is generally good, production demand is gradually restored, employment prices are generally stable, and the margin of main indicators is improved." Fulinghui, director of the national economic comprehensive statistics department of the National Bureau of statistics, said. According to the cumulative data of the previous five months, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.3% year-on-year; The total import and export volume of goods increased by 8.3% year-on-year; The national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.2% year-on-year; Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 24.9% year on year; 5.29 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country. Major economic indicators maintained growth and continued to show resilience and vitality. It is noteworthy that the economies of some regions greatly affected by the epidemic have accelerated their recovery. For example, in May, the added value of industries above Designated Size in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China decreased by 3.2% and 1.1% respectively year-on-year, more than 10 percentage points narrower than that in the previous month; The import and export of goods trade in the Yangtze River Delta increased by nearly 20% month on month, and import and export recovered significantly. "China's economy releases recovery signals." Reuters commented on China's economic performance in May. However, the data also showed that in the first five months, the growth rate of main indicators was still low, and some indicators fell year-on-year. "The domestic economic recovery is still preliminary, and the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated." Fulinghui said. Precise policies and efforts to stabilize the overall economic market It is a clear demand of the Party Central Committee that the epidemic situation should be prevented, the economy should be stabilized and development should be safe. Unswervingly adhere to the general strategy of "external defense input and internal defense rebound" and the general policy of "dynamic reset"; According to the new characteristics of virus variation and transmission, we have continuously adjusted and optimized epidemic prevention and control measures... With the joint efforts of all parties, although there are still small fluctuations in some areas, the overall epidemic situation in the country remains stable. Hundreds of millions of market players are the key force to ensure employment, people's livelihood and stabilize the economic fundamentals. Recently, a package of policies has been introduced continuously and accurately to help market players solve difficulties. We will further strengthen the VAT rebate policy, and it is estimated that the annual tax rebate and tax reduction will be 2.64 trillion yuan; We will increase support for job stability and government procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises, and expand the implementation of the policy of deferred payment of social insurance premiums; We will increase support for inclusive small and micro loans and continue to promote a steady decline in real loan interest rates "The human resources and Social Security Bureau returned the unemployment insurance we paid last year to the accounts of six stores in proportion, with a total return of more than 200000 yuan." Wei Xing, assistant president of Liaoning Dashang Jinfu regional group, said that under the situation that the epidemic has seriously affected the passenger flow of the retail industry, this job stabilization fund has given the company a "timely rain". Market players' expectation of weakening has eased. In May, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry rose to 49.6%, and the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rose to 53.9%; The expected index of business activities in the service industry increased by 2.2 percentage points over the previous month. Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people, especially when economic development encounters difficulties, we should stabilize employment. Strive to expand employment channels for college graduates; Strengthen labor cooperation and information connection for migrant workers, broaden channels for migrant workers and local and nearby employment... The employment stabilization policy continued to work accurately. In May, the overall employment situation improved. Among them, the unemployment rate of the main group of workers aged 25 to 59 fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. We worked together to overcome difficulties. At present, a series of "symptomatic drugs" and "combination boxing" have been rapidly implemented to promote the sustained recovery of the national economy 6. 33 policies and measures! The State Council recently issued a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy in a down-to-earth manner, covering six major aspects: fiscal policy, monetary and financial policy, and policy to ensure the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, sending a clear signal to further release the policy synergy and strive to promote the economy to return to the normal track. "China's inflation rate and fiscal deficit rate are both at a relatively low level, with sufficient foreign exchange reserves. There is still room for macro policies, and there are conditions to effectively respond to risks and challenges and smooth economic fluctuations." Said longhaibo, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council. Maintain strategic focus and strive to achieve reasonable economic growth in the second quarter Looking ahead to the whole year, what lies ahead of China's economy is a "test paper" with great difficulty. Looking at the world, the international environment is still complex and grim. The crisis in Ukraine has intensified the impact of the COVID-19 on the global economy, and external uncertainty has increased; Throughout China, the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still grim and complex, and the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation is still prominent. The more critical the moment is, the more necessary it is to maintain strategic concentration, further strengthen policy regulation and release policy effects. "The current period is a window period for stabilizing the economy. It is very important to do a good job in the economic work in the second quarter. The key is to implement a package of policies to fine tune and stabilize growth." Said liuyuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and economics. Recently, the State Council sent a supervision team to carry out special supervision on 12 provinces to ensure steady growth, stabilize market entities and ensure employment. From the perspective of supervision and inspection, most localities have introduced supporting measures to increase the number of positive factors in economic operation and enhance market confidence. At the same time, it is also found that some places have problems such as inadequate and inaccurate implementation of policies, simplified "one size fits all" work, and arbitrary charges and fines. Gaopeiyong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in the face of difficulties and challenges, we should focus on the market players, focus on "watering and fertilizing" from the root of the market players, and implement policies accurately. The financial department has made it clear that it will work from eight aspects to speed up the progress of financial expenditure, speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds and expand the scope of support; Accelerate the implementation of a package of monetary and financial policies to accurately benefit the disadvantaged groups and key areas; The business system further coordinated the epidemic prevention and control and consumption promotion Seizing the time window, the macro policy has been continuously strengthened, the incremental policy tools are being planned, and the steady growth policy is expected to be further effective. The more complex the situation is, the more we need to be motivated by reform and opening up. The current difficulties and challenges facing China include both short-term factors and structural and institutional contradictions. The key is to practice our internal skills and persist in running our own affairs well. The opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market was issued, focusing on expanding domestic demand and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern; The "road map" for the reform of the fiscal system at and below the provincial level is clear, further straighten out the fiscal relations between governments at and below the provincial level, and promote the equalization of basic public services; The opinions on promoting the stability and quality improvement of foreign trade was printed and distributed, proposing four measures to promote foreign trade to achieve the goal of stability and quality improvement The door of China's opening-up will be bigger and bigger, and the market potential will be continuously released to attract global attention. Zhu Ji, senior vice president of Cabot and President of Asia Pacific region, said that Cabot has an investment plan of nearly US $80million in China from 2022 to 2023. Although the epidemic has some impact, the project will not stop. "With the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, the economic operation is expected to be further improved." Fulinghui said that if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth are effective, the economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter. (Xinhua News Agency)