The beginning of summer, oil and electricity prices have risen in varying degrees all over the world. According to experts' analysis, the impact of the epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia make the world face the triple crisis of oil, gas and electricity at the same time. How can the world cope with the energy crisis when the seasonal peak of energy demand is superimposed? What will happen to the global energy pattern? What are China's countermeasures? The reporter asked the policy experts about this. Some authoritative experts in the industry pointed out that it is necessary and urgent for China to establish an international oil and gas trading center. On the evening of May 31, mewerathurmuki, a car driver in Soweto, South Africa, waited in line at the gas station to refuel. "It's too difficult to buy food for the children. Eventually, we may have to sell our car to get rid of the increasingly high cost of gasoline." He couldn't help complaining. At midnight that day, a new round of gasoline price hikes in South Africa took effect. After the price increase, the gasoline price in the country exceeded 24 rand (about US $1.50) per liter. Fortunately, the government announced on the same day that it would extend the fuel tax exemption policy of the past two months to July, which gave mewerathurmuki a little comfort. Similar stories have recently been staged in many parts of the world. In Zimbabwe, South Africa's neighbor, the current gasoline price is about $1.70 per liter, much higher than $1.44 three months ago. The government was forced to announce that 20% ethanol would be added to gasoline from June 1 to reduce fuel costs. In Uganda, the price of gasoline per liter also rose to $1.50, a sharp increase from about $1 at the beginning of 2021. In India, the extreme high temperature weather in the past two months has set the country's power demand at an all-time high, and triggered the most serious power crisis in many years - as many as two-thirds of Indian households have been affected by large-scale blackouts. "Now we are facing oil crisis, natural gas crisis and power crisis at the same time." Fatihbirol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned in a recent interview that "this energy crisis is much more serious than the oil crisis of the 1970s and 1980s, and it is likely to last longer." For many people, the most worrying question is, is it near the peak of the crisis or just at the beginning of the crisis? Outbreak and geographical conflict trigger energy crisis On May 31 local time, fatihbirol said in an interview that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia have made the world face the triple crisis of oil, gas and electricity at the same time. In his view, the current energy crisis will be larger and last longer than the two crises in the 1970s and 1980s. He was referring to the first and second oil crises. At that time, the OPEC took measures such as production reduction and oil embargo, which led to the sharp rise of oil prices by two times and nearly three times respectively, and triggered the most serious global economic crisis after World War II. The energy crisis is more due to the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Last week, the International Energy Agency, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the United Nations Department of economic and social affairs, the world bank and the World Health Organization jointly released the 2022 tracking sustainable development goal 7: energy progress report (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), which shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down the progress of universal access to electricity and clean cooking fuels and technologies, and the consequences of the Russia Ukraine conflict may lead to further setbacks. The report shows that 733million people in the world still have no access to electricity, and 2.4 billion people are still cooking with fuels harmful to health and the environment. At the current rate of progress, 670million people will have no access to electricity by 2030, 10million more than last year's estimate. The most vulnerable countries in the world are particularly affected. In Asia and Africa, nearly 90million people who had access to electricity before can no longer afford their basic energy needs. "Despite the encouraging rapid recovery capacity of renewable energy, the impact of the epidemic has hindered the recent progress made in popularizing electricity and clean cooking, and slowed down the significant improvement in energy efficiency. Today, the Russian Uzbek conflict has triggered a global energy crisis, pushing up prices, with a particularly serious impact on developing economies. Many of these economies have been in serious financial difficulties due to the epidemic. Overcoming these difficulties and embarking on the track of sustainable development will depend on the international community to provide a large number of innovative financial solutions. " Birol said. What is more serious is that the traditional peak season of energy demand - summer is coming. In recent days, power grid operators in more and more states in the United States have begun to warn of power shortages, fearing that the power grid will not be able to cope with the supply-demand imbalance that is about to enter the summer. California warned last week that it would need to produce more electricity than it currently does to avoid blackouts. Miso, a non-profit organization that operates the power grids of 15 states in the United States, also issued a summer blackout warning. In the middle of last month, the temperature in Texas soared, followed by the sudden disconnection of six power plants. This incident led to the loss of 2900 megawatts of power in the state, which may be a preview of this summer's power crisis. "At present, the power systems in Europe and the United States rely more on natural gas for power generation. As the problem of tight oil and gas supply has not been alleviated, the power supply will also be tight. Summer is the peak of power consumption in the northern hemisphere. With the advent of summer, there is no sufficient oil and gas supply, the possibility of power supply gap is increasing, and the panic will further increase. From this perspective, the world may indeed face a triple crisis of oil, gas and power supply at the same time." Lijifeng, deputy director and researcher of the Energy Policy Research Office of the resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said in an interview with the Shanghai Securities News. Chenweidong, President of minde Research Institute and former chief energy researcher of CNOOC Energy Economics Research Institute, told reporters that oil, gas and electricity must be considered and analyzed separately, and the impact on different regions is also different. The coming of summer will put pressure on the supply of oil and electricity. Sanctions against Russia may be a crisis for oil consumption in Europe, but not for the United States, just pushing up oil prices. The problem of Qi is more complicated. "Last year, oil and gas prices in Europe were separated, and gas with the same heat was twice as expensive as oil. The problem of gas is now in tight balance, and there are few substitutes. Europe is dominated by pipeline gas, and LNG (liquefied natural gas) infrastructure needs to be invested for a long period of time. Therefore, after next year, there may be a natural gas crisis." Chenweidong believes that there may be a more severe crisis in Europe this winter and next year. "Of course, the current crisis is different from the oil crisis of the 1970s." In chenweidong's view, one of the backgrounds of the current global energy crisis is the reduction of refinery investment caused by the carbon reduction target, which reflects the conflict between fossil energy investment and renewable energy investment; The biggest difference from the 1970s is that there is still a third-party supply to increase production capacity. Dramatic changes in the global energy landscape "The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a huge impact on the security of global energy supply, and in particular triggered a sharp shock in oil, natural gas and electricity prices in Europe and the United States." Lijifeng expressed that Russia is the main channel of energy supply in Europe and one of the major suppliers of oil and gas in the world. With the round after round of sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States, the fear that Russian oil and gas will be excluded from the international market is intensifying. He said that in recent years, the global trend of carbon neutrality has guided capital away from upstream investment in oil and gas, making the global oil and gas supply and demand balance fragile in the next few years. On the one hand, the geopolitical conflict has seriously impacted the global oil and gas supply pattern, and on the other hand, it has further torn the relationship between Russia and European and American countries. Compared with the major economies' joint response to the two oil crises in the last century, the lack of international cooperation may make the process of overcoming this crisis more complex, difficult and take longer. In his view, the current crisis may not be the most serious, so we need to pay close attention to the preparations made by countries in the northern hemisphere for the summer peak. "Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Europe have continuously increased sanctions against Russia. At present, the United States and Europe have reached an agreement on a comprehensive embargo on Russian oil. With the gradual cessation of oil imports from Russia by the European Union, the decline in Russian oil exports may reach 2million-3million barrels / day by the end of the year, exacerbating the tension in global oil supply and supporting the high operation of international oil prices." Said jiangxuefeng, vice president of CNPC Economic Research Institute. He believed that although the "OPEC +" ministerial meeting proposed the production increase plan at the beginning of this month, it only apportioned the production increase plan in September to July and August in advance, and the actual production increase capacity is very limited. In particular, the EU's position to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy is very clear, and the subsequent comprehensive oil and gas embargo against Russia, shipping insurance sanctions and other more stringent measures may be implemented, which will not only bring huge geopolitical risk premium to the international energy market, but also cause supply and demand mismatch, amplify abnormal market fluctuations, and continuously aggravate the risk of the global energy crisis. In his view, the crisis will have a huge impact on the global energy pattern, first reflected in the changes in the flow of oil and gas trade. "Now western countries are trying to restrict Russia's oil and gas exports. As the world's largest energy producer, Russia's future oil and gas exports are bound to move eastward. Although Europe is still difficult to replace Russia in terms of natural gas sources in a short time, it will increase imports from North America and the Middle East in the direction, resulting in tight competition for oil and gas resources in these places." "In addition, the status of the three major energy supply centers in the Middle East, North America and Central Asia Russia will undergo major changes: the Middle East will play a more prominent role in the international energy market; the oil producing countries in the Western Hemisphere such as the United States, Brazil and Canada will increase their oil and gas exports; the instability of energy supply in Central Asia will increase due to the involvement of Russia." Jiangxuefeng said. He also believes that the crisis will also accelerate the development of new energy. For example, the "REpower EU plan" recently formulated by Europe to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy has made great efforts in promoting the development of renewable energy. Chenweidong believes that this crisis may reshape the world energy pattern, involving all aspects of living consumption and industrial production. "Europe's all-round sanctions against Russia will lead to the reconstruction of the energy pattern. However, in the end, the direction of energy transformation will still be towards renewability and emission reduction. In addition to climate warming control, another important purpose of carbon neutrality is to achieve energy independence. Only by realizing the energy structure dominated by renewable energy and completing the transition from an oil-based energy system to an electricity based energy system, can most regions truly achieve energy independence Stand. " Chenweidong said. Firmly grasp the initiative of energy security How should China prepare for the energy crisis? In this regard, jiangxuefeng believes that: first, we should strengthen domestic exploration and production, promote the increase of oil and gas reserves and production, and enhance the basic guarantee capacity; Second, improve the diversified reserve system combining national reserve with commercial reserve and enterprise reserve, and enhance the emergency support capacity. "Over a long period of time, the global energy structure and pattern, from supply and demand to trade, are undergoing major changes under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It is also necessary to optimize the import structure according to the new situation." Jiangxuefeng believes that energy security still depends on diversification, multi-channel and various ways. In addition, he said that it is necessary to prepare for a rainy day and make demand side management plans such as oil demand reduction and natural gas "pressure on non people" under extreme circumstances. "Finally, we should also accelerate the development of renewable energy