In May, the issuance of special bonds was accelerated again, and the monthly issuance amount is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan. The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago decided to implement the full retention and tax rebate of stock and increment in more industries. Experts believe that the early issuance and quick issuance of special bonds, the "accelerated refund" and "more refund" of tax rebates reflect the forward force and timely reinforcement of the positive fiscal policy. In the next stage, fiscal policy may use more reserve policy tools, including issuing special treasury bonds. Early and fast issuance of special bonds From the perspective of fiscal expenditure, the early issuance and accelerated issuance of special bonds are an important embodiment of the implementation of the active fiscal policy this year. The Ministry of Finance previously announced that a total of 1401.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued in the first four months of this year; As of May 15, all localities have issued 1.5 trillion yuan of new special bonds, and the issuance of the remaining amount is accelerating. By the end of April, more than 11000 projects had been arranged with special bonds issued, and 120 billion yuan of special bonds had been used as capital for major projects, providing strong support for expanding effective investment and stabilizing the macro economy. Recently, the issuance of new special bonds has been accelerated again, and the new special bonds issued nationwide in May may may exceed 530 billion yuan. Wind data show that as of May 23, 278.1 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued since May. Meanwhile, the disclosed new special bonds planned to be issued from May 24 to 30 are 260.3 billion yuan. Zhou Guannan, chief fixed income analyst of Huachuang securities, said that according to the calculation that the new special bonds will be basically issued by the end of June this year, the issuance peak may be ushered in in May and June, and the average issuance scale in a single month may exceed 1 trillion yuan. In addition, in terms of the use of bond funds, the second batch of special bond funds may be allocated or further accelerated when relevant departments require to speed up the allocation and use of special bond funds. In addition to accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds, the strength of active fiscal policy on the expenditure side is also reflected in the speed-up of funds. Recently, the Ministry of finance has intensively issued a number of central financial funds, covering food production, scientific and technological innovation, public services, education security and other fields. Since May alone, the scale of central financial funds released on the official website of the Ministry of finance has exceeded 290 billion yuan. "Back faster" "back more" From the perspective of fiscal revenue, the implementation of active fiscal policy this year is mainly reflected in a new round of combined tax support policies such as large-scale tax rebate. In the first month of the implementation of the retention tax rebate policy in April, the policy effect was released intensively. Xu Hongcai, Vice Minister of finance, introduced that in April, the national value-added tax rebate was about 800 billion yuan, equivalent to 37.5% of the national general public budget revenue in April last year. Shortly after the implementation time of the stock tax rebate for medium-sized enterprises was advanced, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation recently issued the announcement on further accelerating the implementation progress of the policy of value-added tax at the end of the period, which made it clear that the time for the centralized refund of the stock tax rebate for large enterprises would be advanced from October to June. The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago decided to implement the full retention tax rebate for stock and increment in more industries, increase the tax rebate by more than 140 billion yuan, and refund and reduce tax by 2.64 trillion yuan for the whole year. In the context of the implementation of large-scale retention tax rebate in April, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 41.3% year-on-year. Experts believe that the recent decline in fiscal revenue is mainly due to the treatment of tax rebate accounts, which is the initiative of active fiscal policy to deal with the downward pressure on the economy. This phenomenon should be viewed objectively and rationally. "The large-scale tax rebate policy is an important part of this year's combined tax reduction and fee reduction policy, which can help enterprises solve difficulties, increase cash flow and improve their ability to resist risks." Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of YueKai securities and President of the Research Institute, said. Incremental policy triggered discussion Recently, relevant departments have stressed on several occasions that they should pay close attention to planning incremental policy tools. The market's discussion on the issuance of special treasury bonds in the second half of the year is close to white hot. Zhou Guannan believes that coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development cannot be separated from the support of financial funds. Under the background of early and rapid issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year, the finance may face certain financial pressure in the second half of the year. If we want to maintain a certain intensity of fiscal expenditure in the second half of the year, we may need to raise the deficit ratio or issue special treasury bonds. According to Dong Qi, chief Macro Analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, under the condition of carrying out normalized epidemic prevention, the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap this year is between 700 billion yuan and 1.8 trillion yuan. Coupled with the need to support infrastructure, the gap may be between 1.1 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan. Therefore, the necessity of issuing special treasury bonds to make up the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure is increasing. "The implementation of a proactive fiscal policy is not limited to the issuance of special treasury bonds." Sunbinbin, chief fixed income analyst of Tianfeng securities, believes that in the next step, in addition to the possible issuance of additional special treasury bonds of 500billion to 800billion yuan, it is also possible to transfer 300billion yuan of funds from the central budget stability adjustment fund, use the carry over balance of 400billion yuan, and issue additional special bonds of 300billion to 500billion yuan to make up for the financial capital gap. He predicted that the total scale of funds used to make up the gap will be between 1.5 trillion yuan and 2 trillion yuan, and the time window for policy announcement may be in late June. In order to balance the relationship between risk prevention and investment promotion, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, suggested that it could be considered to allow appropriate adjustment between different government fund subjects, so that projects with certain income but unable to provide market-oriented return can be collectively financed with projects with relatively high return, so as to support the investment and construction of public welfare projects. Some experts believe that the focus of steady growth in the fourth quarter may shift from steady investment to steady consumption, and finance can also make a difference in this regard. The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago decided to reduce the purchase tax of some passenger vehicles by 60 billion yuan. "Historically, when the downward pressure on the economy was great, China has repeatedly reduced the vehicle purchase tax to boost automobile consumption." Political Commissar Lu said. (Xinhua News Agency)