After the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and its allies launched extreme sanctions against Russia, politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing the world economy, causing a huge impact on international food and energy prices, making the "obstruction" of the global supply chain more serious and setting more obstacles to the difficult recovery of the world economy. Georgiyeva, President of the International Monetary Fund, said recently that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a great setback to the global economic recovery. Its impact will lead to the reduction of the economic growth forecast of 143 economies this year, which account for 86% of the global economy. Rising risk of food crisis Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of agricultural products. According to the data released by the Secretariat of the world trade organization, in 2019, the export volume of wheat, barley and sunflower seed products of Russia and Ukraine accounted for 25%, 15% and 45% of the world. World Bank President marpas said that the Russian Ukrainian conflict and Western sanctions against Russia led to a shortage of food, energy and chemical fertilizer, which triggered a food security crisis, and the poorest people suffered the most. In the Middle East, Egypt is one of the world's largest wheat importers. 80% of its wheat imports come from Russia and Ukraine. The price of a bag of 40kg flour rose from 430 Egyptian pounds (about US $23) in February to 560 Egyptian pounds (about US $30) in April. Ahmed hutet, a Lebanese wheat importer, said the country's wheat stocks were "only enough to sustain the consumer demand of the people for one and a half months". The problems facing Africa are equally serious. Some international aid and charity organizations have warned that affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, drought, floods and other factors, West Africa is facing the worst food crisis in a decade. At present, more than 27 million people are facing famine, which may increase by 11 million by June. Latin America, which is far from conflict, has also been affected. Take Brazil, one of the world's major soybean producers, as an example. About 85% of its chemical fertilizer depends on imports, about one fifth of which comes from Russia. The Russian Ministry of industry and trade previously proposed a comprehensive suspension of chemical fertilizer exports. If Brazilian farmers have to pay high prices for chemical fertilizers, or crop yields decline due to reduced use of chemical fertilizers, the prices of agricultural products such as soybeans will rise further. "For many countries, such a rise will have an impact on political and social stability," said Victor Sauber, emerging markets portfolio manager at Aberdeen investment in London The energy system has been impacted In addition to food, Russia is also a major energy exporter. About 30% and 40% of the oil and natural gas imported by EU countries come from Russia respectively. Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, affected by Western sanctions and market panic, international oil prices have risen sharply, once approaching $140 a barrel. Recently, due to the rapid rise of the US dollar index and the delay in the introduction of EU oil and gas sanctions against Russia, the market's concerns about supply have been alleviated, and the international oil price has dropped, but it is still hovering at a high of about US $100 per barrel. The impact of the sharp rise in energy prices on European countries is particularly obvious. "We have imposed sanctions on (Russian) energy products, believing that it will damage the Russian economy. However, the sanctions will do more harm to the EU economy." Said Michele gerrarch, former Deputy Minister of economic development of Italy. In France, energy prices rose 29.2% year-on-year in March this year, including 43.5% increase in the price of petroleum products, 41.3% increase in the price of natural gas and 6.0% increase in electricity price. More than half of Germany's natural gas imports come from Russia. According to the estimation of the German price monitoring agency, the sharp rise in natural gas prices has led to an increase of one or two thousand euros in the annual natural gas expenditure of German households. Michael Schutter, director of the Economic Research Institute in Cologne, Germany, warned that the implementation of a comprehensive energy embargo against Russia could lead to the number of unemployed in Germany rising to 4 million. It is noteworthy that the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the global energy market may exist for a long time. European countries may be forced to find alternatives to significantly reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas. Russia also needs to develop a larger energy consumption market in developing economies, which will lead to the adjustment of global energy structure. In addition, in response to western financial sanctions, Russia has taken countermeasures such as settling energy and resource products in rubles, which will also have a long-term impact on the international energy pricing and settlement system. Global supply chain is now "blocked" Russia Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia have led to interference in the global supply chain and seriously affected the normal operation of Global trade. A large number of factories in Ukraine stopped production, and the supply of many parts could not be guaranteed, resulting in production reduction or even shutdown of German automobile manufacturers and other enterprises. On the Russian side, the governor of the Russian central bank, Elvira nabiulina, said in mid April that the impact of Western sanctions on Russia was initially mainly reflected in the financial market, but "now it begins to affect the real economy more and more", because "almost all products" made in Russia depend on imported parts and components. At present, the factory may still have inventory, but due to western export restrictions, Russian companies will be forced to transfer the supply chain or start producing their own parts. The blocked export of Russian raw materials also interferes with the global economy. For example, Russia's nickel production accounts for about 7% of the world. The market is worried that if Russia is subject to further sanctions, the supply of nickel and other metals will also be affected. In the long run, they will suffer from the "obstruction" of the global supply chain caused by Western sanctions against Russia. National statistics show that more than 2100 American companies and about 1200 European companies have business dealings with at least one direct supplier from Russia. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group said that in addition to affecting trade exchanges, Western sanctions against Russia will also increase the concerns of enterprises in various countries about geopolitical risks. Therefore, they have to deal with the possible interruption of the supply chain through diversification of supply channels and increasing inventory, which will greatly increase the operating costs of enterprises. Economic recovery is even more difficult The global economic recovery already faces many uncertainties caused by regional imbalances, uncoordinated policies and repeated epidemics, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine makes the recovery process even more difficult. Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that the world is facing "a crisis in a crisis". The world bank predicts that Ukraine's economy will shrink by 45.1% and Russia's economy will shrink by 11.2% this year; The economies of emerging markets and developing countries in Eurasia will shrink by 4.1%, rather than the previously expected growth of 3%. The World Trade Organization predicts that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to the global trade growth rate of 2.4% to 3% this year, instead of the 4.7% previously predicted; Global economic growth fell by 0.7 to 1.3 percentage points to between 3.1% and 3.7%. Before the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, under the superposition of factors such as the supply chain "obstruction" caused by the epidemic, the fluctuation of commodity prices and the ultra loose monetary policy of some countries, the global inflation level was already at a high level. After the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Western extreme sanctions against Russia changed the supply and demand relationship of energy and other bulk commodities, further pushing up inflation in various countries. The U.S. Department of labor data show that the year-on-year increase of the U.S. consumer price index has been higher than 6% for six consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in March, breaking the peak in more than 40 years. Preliminary statistics released by Eurostat show that the inflation rate in the eurozone reached 7.5% at an annual rate in April, hitting a record high for six consecutive months. Analysts pointed out that under the pressure of high inflation, the Federal Reserve is accelerating the tightening of monetary policy, which will increase the risk of debt default in some countries and expose the world economic recovery to more risks. (Xinhua News Agency)