In recent days, the European Union has stepped up consultations on how to implement the Russian oil import ban. CNN reported on the 9th that if the EU stops importing oil from Russia, it seems that only Middle Eastern countries can fill the gap, but whether the other party is willing to fill the gap is another matter. According to the estimation of the International Energy Agency, if the EU stops importing Russian oil, the market gap will be 2.2 million barrels of crude oil and 1.2 million barrels of refined oil per day. The Middle East has about half of the world's proven crude oil reserves and considerable surplus production capacity. However, do Middle East countries have the technical ability and willingness to increase oil supply and "save" Europe? Some oil analysts say don't expect too much. Amina Becker, chief reporter of the US energy information publishing group in the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said that among OPEC member states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the most surplus, with a total of about 2.5 million barrels per day. In order to stabilize oil prices, the United States recently repeatedly asked Saudi Arabia to increase production separately beyond the agreed production quota between OPEC and non OPEC major oil producing countries. Saudi Arabia ignored it, so it is unlikely to listen to the EU's call for increasing production. Robin mills, the founder and CEO of Kamal energy company in the United Arab Emirates, and others believe that the EU may require Gulf countries to evenly distribute part of the oil supplied to Asian customers to Europe at this stage, but the premise is that "there is flexibility in long-term contracts, or negotiate with Asian buyers". Otherwise, the move may damage the relationship between Saudi Arabia and other countries and big buyers in Asia. In the Middle East, besides the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Iran is most likely to increase oil supply. Some analysts said that if the United States lifted sanctions against Iran, the latter's average daily supply could increase by 1.2 million barrels. According to the data of French Kepler company, as of mid February this year, Iran had stored 100 million barrels of oil on oil tankers, which means that it can increase the supply of 1 million barrels a day in more than three months, equivalent to 1% of global production. However, the negotiations on the resumption of the implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue between the United States and Iran have not been successful. Becker believes that the United States will not sign a "bad agreement" against the United States just to enable Iran to supply more oil. Yusuf arshamari, chief executive and head of oil research at cmarkits, a British energy market consultancy, said Iraq theoretically had spare capacity to increase 660000 barrels a day. However, sectarian differences and the current political impasse mean that Iraq may not be a stable source of supply. Analysts also pointed out that Iraq still lacks the infrastructure needed to increase production. Becker said: "we must remember that oil does not exist when the tap is turned on. It needs investment, and it takes time for investment to produce benefits." Libya's oil production is also often interrupted by political tensions. In late April, the Libyan national oil company said that some major oil fields and export terminals were blocked by armed groups, a refinery was damaged by armed conflict, and the national daily oil production was reduced by more than 550000 barrels. The situation eased slightly in early May. Arshamari said that due to the unstable security situation and the repeated shutdown of Libya's main oil fields due to "force majeure", the EU "can hardly count on" Libya. Outside the Middle East, although major oil producing countries such as Nigeria and Venezuela have surplus production capacity, they are unable to fill the vacancy for the EU for various reasons. All this means that the EU may have to turn to the United States for help. However, mills and others believe that even if the United States increases production, it may not be able to meet or suitable for European demand. The reason is that most of the exportable products of the United States are ultra light crude oil, which is not an ideal product for the European market and is not conducive to transforming it into diesel oil with greater demand from the European Union. Therefore, in arsamari's view, if the EU imposes a ban on Russian oil, "it may be harmful to the global economy". (Xinhua News Agency)