Perspective on the evolution of winning mechanism in intelligent war ■ Xie Kai, Zhang Dongrun, Liang Xiaoping introduction Military theorists often say that victory often smiles at those who can foresee the changes in the characteristics of war, rather than those who wait for changes to adapt. In recent years, disruptive technologies represented by artificial intelligence have developed rapidly and are widely used in the military field, accelerating the evolution of war form to intelligence, and the corresponding concept of war is also undergoing evolution. Only by discovering changes in time, actively responding to changes and actively adapting to changes can we remain invincible in the future war. From "beating the weak with the strong" to "controlling the clumsy with wisdom" "Strong victory and weak defeat" is a universal law of war victory. Even in those cases where the weak prevail over the strong, it is often necessary to form a strength advantage against the enemy in local and specific periods of time in order to truly win. In the era of intelligent war, the contribution rate of intellectual advantage to combat effectiveness is much higher than that of other elements. In the intelligent War confrontation, human intelligence is widely penetrated into the combat field and transplanted to the weapon system. The multi-dimensional and various types of intelligent combat platforms in the whole field can quickly couple the combat forces, build the combat system according to the mission requirements, independently implement the cooperative operation, and quickly return to the combat ready state at the end of the mission, showing the trend of intelligent autonomy. The party with higher and stronger intelligence level can better develop and apply the mechanism of "using intelligence to defeat self defeatment", and even design the war and lead the development of the war situation to win the final victory. We should also see that in the era of intelligent war, there are likely to be multiple development stages from low to high. We should put ourselves in the advanced stage as far as possible and attack the opponent to make it in the stage of low dimension. It is also the application of the mechanism of "smart victory" by beating low with high. From "destroying power" to "destroying cognition" With the accelerated evolution of war form to intelligence, the combat space has gradually expanded from physical domain and information domain to cognitive domain, and from tangible battlefield to intangible battlefield. The cognitive space composed of human spiritual and psychological activities has become a new combat space. Different from the traditional war, which aims to destroy the enemy's effective power, intelligent war will pay more attention to weakening the enemy's morale, disintegrating the enemy's will and destroying the enemy's cognition. By intelligently analyzing the opponent's personality preferences, psychological characteristics and decision-making habits, we can "tailor" the deterrence information, make use of the cutting-edge technical advantages such as intelligence, and show the strong strength to the opponent in a vivid way, so as to continuously ferment the emotions such as anxiety, suspicion and panic, and finally lead to its failure. Big data, known as "new oil", not only enriches intelligence sources, but also becomes an important "weapon" for opponents' cognition. By processing big data and deliberately "leaking" it to the opponent, it will create a new "fog of war" and make it fall into a situation of cognitive confusion. In the intelligent war, the struggle and game around attacking the heart and seizing the will will will be more intense, and the party occupying the cognitive advantage will win first than the other party, making it easier to grasp the initiative and opportunity. From "people-oriented" to "man-machine cooperation" In traditional wars, the organization and application of military forces are mainly human. With the wide application of intelligent technology, the proportion of unmanned equipment is increasing. In intelligent war, the combat task will be completed by man-machine cooperation, and the two will achieve organic integration and complementary advantages. The third "counteraction strategy" proposed by foreign forces takes man-machine cooperation as the key technology of key development, and its successively proposed concepts such as "loyal wingman" are also aimed at exploring the realization of manned / unmanned cooperative operation. It can be predicted that man-machine cooperation will play an important role in the future war. Using unmanned reconnaissance force to carry out three-dimensional and multi-dimensional battlefield situation awareness can provide real-time intelligence support for manned combat forces; Using unmanned platform to carry relay load can provide continuous communication relay support for manned combat forces; Using unmanned combat forces to go deep into the front battlefield can attract enemy attacks, force the enemy to expose his position, and provide target guidance and fire support for manned combat forces; The use of unmanned transportation equipment to provide material supplies for the front line can improve the efficiency of logistics support, reduce transportation costs and reduce unnecessary casualties. With the assistance of artificial intelligence, manned combat forces and unmanned combat forces will realize scientific division of labor and reasonable collocation in terms of quantity, scale, function and function, so as to maximize the overall efficiency. From "big eat small" to "fast eat slow" In traditional wars, it is often necessary to increase the number of troops to make up for the shortcomings in equipment performance. The rapid development of military intelligence has greatly improved the speed of information transmission and the precision of weapon strike, greatly reduced the time of reconnaissance and early warning, intelligence processing, command and decision-making, Firepower Strike and damage assessment, accelerated the circulation of OODA killing chain, and made "discovery and destruction" possible. Hypersonic missiles, laser weapons, microwave weapons, electromagnetic pulse weapons and other new rapid killing weapons further push the pace of war to "second kill". In the Gulf War, the loop time of OODA ring took 3 days; In the Iraq war, the loop time has been shortened to less than 10 minutes; In the Syrian war, the loop has almost achieved near real time. In an intelligent war, the use of an unmanned platform integrating observation and combat to quickly clear high-value targets such as the enemy's core command post and high-level commanders will cause the other party to suffer heavy losses and even face the danger of paralysis before it has time to respond. It can be seen that victory does not necessarily favor the party with large military strength. The party with rapid and accurate action is more likely to win the battlefield opportunity. According to statistics, the response time of artificial intelligence to battlefield changes is more than 400 times faster than that of human beings. Facing the rapidly changing battlefield situation, people will be more inclined to realize the adaptive planning and independent decision-making of the command and control system with the help of artificial intelligence technology, so as to change the command and control mode from "people on the loop" to "people outside the loop", so as to reduce the burden of commanders and improve the combat efficiency and the success rate of task execution. From "integration winning" to "cluster winning" The traditional concept of equipment development is to invest a lot of money in the research and development of highly integrated sophisticated weapon platform, in order to reduce the dimension of the enemy by virtue of intergenerational advantages and performance advantages in the war. However, the development and deployment of multi-functional high-end platform not only takes a lot of time and money, but also may be incompatible with each other when multiple software and hardware modules are integrated into a single weapon platform. Once the platform is destroyed, it will cause heavy losses. The rapid development of unmanned military cluster technology. Unmanned clusters have the advantages of large number and scale, low comprehensive cost and decentralization. Unmanned platforms coordinate and cooperate with each other, and can make independent decisions and carry out combat tasks in an organized manner. Even if some unmanned platforms are destroyed, the overall combat effectiveness will not be affected. The operational concepts of "decision-making center warfare" and "mosaic warfare" put forward by foreign forces focus on the use of unmanned clusters to complete operational tasks. In intelligent warfare, by dispersing the functions of reconnaissance and surveillance, information communication, command and control, firepower attack and so on into a large number of unmanned combat units with single functions, we can build a "killing network" with high robustness and high flexibility, and then adjust the combination mode according to the needs of the mission, which will make it emerge strong swarm intelligence, create great uncertainty for the opponent, and then trap the opponent in the judgment link of OODA ring, Unable to make effective decisions. In addition, due to the large number of unmanned clusters, the opponent's detection, tracking and interception capabilities can quickly reach saturation. The opponent has to face the dilemma of defense failure because it is unable to destroy all unmanned platforms in the cluster. From "military dominance" to "pluralistic mixing" Traditional wars mainly rely on violent means to make the enemy yield to their own will. They usually have strong war intensity and have a clear boundary between peacetime and wartime. With the continuous expansion of the field of military struggle to new fields such as space, network and intelligence, and the role of economic, cultural, diplomatic and legal means in war, intelligent war will be carried out in the form of "multi pronged" in many fields represented by the "gray area". The intensity of war may be weakened, and the boundary between peacetime and wartime will be more blurred. Whether the Saudi oil field was attacked by drones in 2019, resulting in half of its oil production, or the large-area oil shortage of the largest oil pipeline in the United States in 2021 due to cyber attacks, the far-reaching impact of various new attack methods can not be underestimated. With the development and maturity of intelligent technology, attacks against opponents' industrial, transportation, finance, communication, energy, medical and other facilities and networks by comprehensive use of various means will become more common. The threshold of intelligent war will show a downward trend. The participants may launch a mixed war integrating economic war, diplomatic war, cyber war, public opinion war, psychological war, legal war and other styles by means of undeclared war, making the opponent tired of coping. From "actual combat test" to "experimental training" Under traditional conditions, due to the lack of scientific simulation and evaluation tools, the real ability of the army can be tested only in actual combat. Under the condition of intelligence, virtual reality technology can be used to create a virtual scene with strong three-dimensional and realistic sense based on the actual battlefield environment and mission background. The scene can not only restore the objective things such as weapons and equipment from multiple dimensions such as sound, appearance and performance, but also simulate all kinds of bad weather such as heavy fog, heavy rain and snowstorm, so as to show the terrain, meteorology, hydrology, electromagnetism, nuclearization and other information of the battlefield in a visual form, which is close to the real situation of the battlefield. According to the characteristics of the enemy in reality, setting the imaginary enemy in the virtual environment and carrying out intelligent simulation on the possible trend of the war situation can enable the officers and soldiers to "experience" the war several times in the virtual reality before the formal war, so as to know the equipment performance, war rhythm and the situation of the enemy and ourselves, and will be more comfortable in performing the real task. Before the outbreak of the Iraq war, the U.S. military secretly developed a computer game to simulate the combat environment in Baghdad. Among the personnel sent to Iraq to perform tasks, the survival rate of those who received game training was as high as 90%. With the continuous enrichment and improvement of the data collected in reality, the construction of the virtual battlefield will be more realistic, the prediction of the trend of the battlefield situation will be more accurate, and the comprehensive evaluation of the exercise will be more credible. Both hostile sides try to know the war results in advance through intelligent deduction, and there may be a situation of "subduing the soldiers" without war or small war. (outlook new era)