Ten questions about China's current economy
2022-04-19
On April 18, the first quarterly report of China's economy was released. In the first quarter, the economic operation continued to recover, the growth rate of main indicators was basically stable, the quality and efficiency of development were improved, and the beginning was generally stable. However, the world situation is complex and evolving. Domestic epidemics have occurred frequently recently. Some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations, and the new downward pressure has further increased. How to look at the economic situation, how to solve the employment pressure, how to stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain, and how to break the difficulties of small and micro enterprises... Xinhua News Agency reporters sorted out the top ten concerns of China's economy and interviewed authoritative departments and figures to answer them. (1) With more difficulties and challenges, how to view the current economic trend? Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has recovered steadily, with positive changes in the first two months. However, in March, affected by the changes in the situation in Ukraine and the domestic epidemic, the recovery momentum is under pressure. What do you think of the current economic situation? How to ensure that the annual growth target of about 5.5% is achieved? Overall, China's economic operation remained within a reasonable range and started smoothly in the first quarter. The current achievements are not easy. The important indicators supporting the macro economy are generally stable. In the first quarter, the GDP exceeded 27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, higher than the growth rate of 4% in the fourth quarter of last year; The added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year, higher than the two-year average growth rate in 2021; Fiscal revenue grew steadily, and expenditures in key areas were effectively guaranteed; Foreign investment and foreign trade continued to maintain double-digit growth, the overall balance of payments was stable, and foreign exchange reserves remained at about US $3.2 trillion. Transformation and upgrading continued to advance, and a number of indicators showed the trend of "progress". In the first quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.2% and 8.1% respectively year-on-year, significantly faster than all industries above Designated Size; The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.4 times year-on-year; Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.8%; Energy consumption per unit of GDP continued to decline and reform and opening up continued to deepen. At present, the economic operation is facing great downward pressure, and difficulties and challenges have increased significantly. The triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations faced by economic development have not changed. The domestic epidemic has spread in many places. Some cities have pressed the "slow key", some of the sealing and control management areas have stopped production, and the supply chain of the industrial chain has encountered blocking points; The difficulties of enterprises in some industries have increased, and small and micro enterprises are facing operational difficulties; Contact and gathering consumption activities such as tourism and accommodation, transportation, catering and entertainment are restricted; The employment difficulty of key groups has increased, and the number of employees in some industries has decreased Since the central economic work conference was held last year, we have adhered to the principle of "making progress while maintaining stability". From the central to local levels, we have accelerated the implementation of macro policies, micro policies, structural policies, science and technology policies, reform and opening-up policies, regional policies and social policies. In particular, we have made further efforts in the near future to race against the epidemic and difficulties, and constantly release the power of "stability" in helping the economy climb over the ridge. At present, China's development still has many strategic advantages. The economy is large, there is wide room for maneuver, and there is a large-scale market. The fundamentals of long-term improvement will not change, and it has strong toughness and vitality. We not only face up to difficulties, but also strengthen confidence, adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, and strive to complete the objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year. (2) How to balance epidemic prevention and development? Since March, the local epidemic has spread to 30 provinces, including strong cities with trillion GDP such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as large agricultural provinces such as Jilin, with wide radiation areas and long chains, and the downward pressure on the economy has been amplified in stages. Some foreign media and institutions have frequently questioned that China's strict epidemic prevention is "costly and unsustainable", and there are arguments such as "lying flat" and "coexisting with the virus" in the society. Epidemic prevention and control is "the largest country". Adhere to dynamic zeroing, which is a big account and a life account. The prevention and control work always puts "people first and life first", which is the primary standard to judge the effectiveness of epidemic prevention. Omicron is not a "pandemic influenza". It spreads rapidly, infects a large number of people, and poses a high risk to vulnerable groups. Among China's more than 1.4 billion people, 267 million are aged 60 and over. If it is not strictly controlled in time, it is bound to increase the infection risk of vulnerable people. Once a large-scale rebound is formed, it will cause more serious losses of people's lives and property, and it is very easy to lose the hard won prevention and control achievements in the early stage. On the contrary, at the beginning of this year, many countries and regions gradually relaxed epidemic prevention policies, but the result was a surge in the number of cases and deaths. At present, the total number of confirmed cases in the world has exceeded 500 million and more than 6.19 million deaths. The infection level in the UK has risen to an all-time high since March. Some British media pointed out that the coexistence policy with the new crown is "tantamount to a gamble". Then calculate the economic account - adhering to scientific, accurate and dynamic zeroing is to win the initiative for China's development. In 2020, it was precisely because China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and returning to work and production in the world that it finally took the lead in realizing the transformation of economic growth from negative to positive among major economies; In 2021, China's economy grew by 8.1% year-on-year, with an average growth of 5.1% in two years. China's economic development and epidemic prevention and control remained a global leader. The transmission speed of Omicron mutant is fast, and the difficulty of realizing dynamic clearing is further upgraded. Sealing and control measures will inevitably bring short-term economic impact, but China's anti epidemic practice further confirms that the temporary "management" is just for better "release". At present, policies and measures are intensively introduced from the central to local governments to strive to achieve the maximum prevention and control effect at the least cost and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development. On the one hand, do not miss the farming season and ensure spring ploughing. The central government has allocated 20 billion yuan to provide one-time subsidies to farmers who actually grow grain, and the national development and Reform Commission has deployed and invested 1 million tons of national potassium fertilizer reserves... The agricultural situation dispatching shows that 19.4% of the intended area of spring sowing grain has been completed, and the progress is 1.2 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year. On the other hand, we should seize every minute to resume work and production. In Shenzhen, it took less than 10 days from pressing the "slow key" to the orderly restoration of social production and living order; Shandong announced on March 29 that the epidemic situation since the end of February has been dynamically cleared, and the resumption of work and production has entered the "fast lane"; Jilin announced on April 14 that the social aspect was cleared and the social production and living order was gradually restored; In Shanghai, the current round of epidemic transmission index has dropped from 2.27 to 1.23. The guidelines for epidemic prevention and control of industrial enterprises returning to work and production were released on April 16 On the one hand, we will unswervingly adhere to dynamic zeroing to create good conditions for economic and social development; On the other hand, only by adhering to scientific and accurate prevention and control and preventing "one size fits all" from being overweight at all levels, can we ensure that we will resolutely win this crucial battle of epidemic prevention and control. (3) Can employment be stable in response to unprecedented pressure? The downward pressure on the economy bears the brunt and affects employment first. The latest statistics show that affected by multiple factors, the first two months of employment this year, after a moderate start, fluctuated significantly in March. In the first quarter, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.5%, of which 5.8% in March. Recruitment agency data show that this is the traditional peak season in March and April, and the trend of the job market is sluggish. With the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the environment at home and abroad this year, can employment be stable? From the perspective of employment demand, the total pressure is increasing. In recent years, the number of college graduates has reached a new high of 1.076 million, of which nearly 16 million are in need of employment in cities and towns. From the perspective of job supply, many enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are facing significantly increased difficulties, slower recruitment, and even downsizing and layoffs. The real estate, education and training, Internet and contact service industries that originally attracted more jobs have seen a significant decline in recruitment demand. From the perspective of supply-demand matching, the structural contradiction of "difficult employment" and "difficult recruitment" is more prominent. The phenomenon of slow employment and slow employment of young people has increased, and the employment problems of key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers are prominent. In March, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16 to 24 was 16%, the highest in the same period in recent years. Stabilizing employment has become the top priority of current economic work. Since the central economic work conference last year, a distinctive feature is that the priority orientation of employment has been further strengthened. Stabilizing employment has been placed at the macro policy level and fully reflected in various policies. This year, the central government allocated 61.758 billion yuan in employment subsidies, an increase of 5.168 billion yuan over last year. Pay attention to the basic - implement the policy of delaying the payment of pension, unemployment and work-related injury insurance premiums for catering, retail, tourism, civil aviation, highway, waterway and railway transportation and other industries in extreme poverty; Significantly increase the proportion of returning unemployment insurance to small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, up to 90%; Local governments are allowed to use another 4% of the unemployment insurance fund balance for skills training, and provide one-time retention training subsidies to small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in difficulty... Do everything possible to stabilize enterprises and jobs. Focus protection - study and introduce policies and measures to promote the employment and Entrepreneurship of young people such as college graduates, and carry out special actions such as public employment services on campus, the recruitment of millions of internship posts, and the visit of College secretaries and presidents to enterprises and expand posts to promote employment; Organize and implement the "spring breeze action" to provide employment services for migrant workers and people out of poverty... Take multiple measures to ensure the employment of key groups. Expand space - strengthen the promotion of entrepreneurship and employment; Improve the flexible employment policy, carry out the pilot of occupational injury protection for employees in new forms of employment in seven provinces such as Beijing and Hainan and seven Internet platform enterprises, make up for the shortcomings of rights and interests protection, and give better play to the role of "reservoir" of flexible employment. While implementing the preferential employment policy, we should also make policy reserves for stabilizing and expanding employment, and go all out to stabilize the basic employment market. (4) Release the potential of domestic demand and how to boost the "dual engines" of investment and consumption? In the "troika" driving the economy, investment and consumption constitute domestic demand and are the "main engine" of economic growth. Actively expanding effective investment is the focus of current macro policies. Overall, the growth rate of investment picked up rapidly and the scale continued to expand. In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets exceeded 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, better than 4.9% of last year. In terms of structure, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and real estate development investment show "cold and warm differentiation". In the first quarter, infrastructure investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year, faster than the previous two months and 8.1 percentage points faster than last year. It is estimated that the fixed asset investment of Tiegong Shuihang is about 636 billion yuan, and the Sichuan Tibet railway has made steady progress. Since the beginning of the year, it has issued a capital plan of 46.75 billion yuan in the central budget in railway, civil aviation, highway and other fields... The role of infrastructure investment in stabilizing the economy is prominent. In the first quarter, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, 2.1 percentage points higher than that of last year; However, the investment in real estate development increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell. The rising price of raw materials, the decline of enterprise efficiency and the epidemic situation may have an impact on the expansion of effective investment. Consumption plays a fundamental role in stabilizing the economic market. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and household consumption was basically stable. The more active online retail, the rapid growth of new national tide consumption, "one old and one small" consumption demand and the ice and snow economic boom show the great potential of residents' consumption upgrading. Under the epidemic, the recovery of consumption also faces major constraints. Compared with the previous two months, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the index in March was negative growth. Among them, tourism accommodation, catering and entertainment, transportation and other contact aggregation