Traceable evidence shows that the resources needed for human life and health and economic and social development have been affected by climate change, and climate risk has become a major challenge facing mankind in the 21st century. Climate risk can be divided into physical risk and transformation risk. Physical risk refers to the risk brought by the change of physical environment caused by climate change to the economic and social system, which may lead to the short-term paralysis of the economic system; Transformation risk refers to the systemic risk induced by climate policy in promoting the transformation of economic and social system. In recent years, with the increase of uncertain factors in the international economic environment, more and more scholars have focused on economic resilience. Economic resilience refers to the ability of the economic system to recover and rebound in the face of external shocks and policy changes. With the prominence of climate change issues in economic development, it is of more and more significance to strengthen the prevention of the impact of climate risks on economic resilience. Physical risks of climate change The WMO report shows that the global average temperature in 2021 is 1.11 ℃ higher than that before industrialization (1850-1900), which is close to the lower limit of the temperature control target of 1.5 ℃ in the Paris Agreement. Climate change characterized by warming intensifies the intensity, frequency and duration of natural disasters, including damage to water resources, oceans and coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture and human health. In terms of water resources, the northward movement and intensity increase of precipitation zone caused by climate warming will increase the runoff of some rivers in Western China, which will help alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and increase the wetland area to a certain extent. However, the continuous high temperature will increase the evapotranspiration and reduce the surface runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, resulting in the reduction of forest area and the increase of grassland vulnerability in climate sensitive areas. At the same time, the increase of extreme rainfall frequency and duration will significantly increase the risk of flood disaster in some areas. From the perspective of ocean and coast, climate warming will lead to frequent marine ecological disasters. The rise of sea level will aggravate coastal erosion, seawater intrusion and soil salinization, and have an impact on the economic system of coastal areas. From the perspective of grain production, climate warming will lead to the aggravation of agricultural diseases and insect pests, the degradation of farmland production environment, the intensification of meteorological disasters, and the sharp contradiction between supply and demand of irrigation water, thus increasing the risk of grain crop yield reduction. In terms of human health, climate warming may indirectly affect the pathogens, hosts and vectors of infectious diseases in the natural environment, so as to change the occurrence and transmission routes of infectious diseases and increase the possibility of infectious disease outbreaks. Transition risks of climate change The implementation of climate policies such as carbon pricing, carbon assessment and carbon environmental impact assessment can effectively promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy system and "two high" industries, but it may also induce systemic risks in this process. First, business risks. In order to mitigate climate change, various countries and regions have successively issued a series of laws and regulations, making enterprises gradually change from voluntary emission reduction to mandatory emission reduction. In the process of adapting to the new rules, enterprises may face the risk of forced rapid transformation and even business interruption. In addition, policies such as carbon pricing will push up the production costs of "two high" industries and reduce the market competitiveness of relevant enterprises in the short term. Second, the risk of technological innovation. Under the "double carbon" goal, enterprises must improve energy efficiency and strengthen investment in low-carbon technology innovation in order to develop. For example, carry out green technological innovation for traditional processes with high energy consumption, actively use clean energy, vigorously develop and support low-carbon or zero carbon industries, and so on. In the process of transformation, enterprises need to invest a lot of human and material resources to develop new technologies and new energy, and the production cost is bound to rise sharply. Without sufficient technical reserves, the high cost of R & D may expose enterprises to the risk of transformation failure. Third, the risk of regional economic slowdown. The economic growth of some regions (mainly resource intensive regions) is highly dependent on the development and processing of fossil energy. When the market reduces the demand for fossil energy due to the "double carbon" goal, it may slow down the economic growth of these regions. Fourth, the risk of energy transformation. The transition from fossil energy to clean energy is the most important means to control carbon emissions. Energy transformation involves many links, such as employment placement, asset revitalization, technology research and development, equipment purchase and renewal. It is a long-term and complex systematic project and must be steadily promoted. Otherwise, the small fluctuation of energy supply may be amplified through the economic system and disrupt the existing economic operation. Impact of climate change on economic resilience The impact of climate change on economic resilience is a complex transmission process, mainly including supply chain, industrial chain, trade mode, energy system, financial system and food security. First, the physical risks of climate change will affect economic resilience. The physical risk of climate change will impact some core links of the supply chain and industrial chain, and expand to the whole economic system through the supply chain and industrial chain, and finally damage the toughness of the economic system. For example, extreme weather events increase the difficulty of mining some climate sensitive raw materials, increase the probability of transportation interruption and delivery delay, increase the transportation cost, increase the cost of the enterprise's supply chain, and even face the risk of suspension or interruption of the supply chain. Extreme high temperature, severe cold and rainstorm will cause damage to production and operation facilities and reduce the service life of buildings, thus increasing the production costs such as maintenance, renewal and replacement of enterprises. In serious cases, it will lead to delayed or cut-off supply of some products. In the case of superposition of two or more extreme physical risks, it will have a great impact on the normal operation of the product market, transmit it to other markets, and finally penetrate the whole industrial chain and supply chain. Some physical risks will disrupt the normal commodity supply and export trade, reduce the commodity delivery capacity of relevant enterprises, increase the multiple default risk of enterprises, and lead to the instability of the financial system. The impact of extreme weather events on the output of major food crops will be amplified step by step through the supply chain, which will have an impact on economic resilience. Secondly, the transition risk of climate change will have an impact on economic resilience. The smoothness of climate policy driven industrial transformation and energy transformation depends on the availability and economy of multiple factors such as cutting-edge technology, material capital, human capital and key resources. In the short term, rapid industrial transformation and premature stripping of some "two high" industries at key nodes will reduce the integrity of the industrial chain, cause some assets to run aground, and even reduce the guarantee level of energy security, which will have an impact on economic resilience. In the long run, the full implementation of climate policy will not only create some new sectors, but also eliminate some traditional sectors, which may profoundly change the global energy trade model. Countries or regions with comparative advantages such as low-carbon technologies and low-carbon products will stand out in the future trade pattern. If a country's policy, technology, capital, resources and other factors are insufficient, the transformation process may be long, and even face the risk of transformation failure, which will eventually affect the country's economic resilience. In addition, as a region with high concentration of population and economic activities, the impact of climate policy will affect all fields and departments of the city, form derivative effects and amplification effects, and form the transmission mechanism of climate change population and economy economy system, thus affecting economic resilience. Climate risk coping strategies Industrial chain, supply chain security, food security and ensuring people's normal life cannot be divorced from reality and eager for success. Therefore, to achieve the goal of "double carbon", we should also pay attention to preventing climate risks. We should not only pay attention to the physical risks of climate change, but also pay high attention to the transformation risks of climate change. We should make overall deployment from a systematic perspective and form an overall response pattern. As far as the physical risks of climate change are concerned, it is necessary to strengthen risk assessment, pay attention to the coordination between departments, and form the overall ability to prevent risks. Scientifically and systematically assess the physical risks of climate change and the resulting systemic risks, establish and improve the emergency system for the physical risks of climate change, strengthen the policy synergy between different departments, and build a cross-border and cross sectoral climate risk response mechanism at the level of cities, industries and enterprises. As for the transition risk of climate change, we should strengthen the simulation and post assessment of climate policy, improve the scientificity of climate policy, and improve the prediction and governance level of transition risk. We can raise funds through the carbon market and other channels to fund the R & D activities of low-carbon technologies urgently needed by the country, and help some regions, industries and enterprises successfully complete the low-carbon transformation. In addition, imported climate risks should be prevented. Climate risk will form risk transmission among countries through industrial chain and supply chain, causing input impact to China's economic system. Therefore, from the dual perspective of physical risk and transformation risk, we must make a scientific and reasonable global layout of key resources and key products, disperse climate risk, ensure the safety of China's industrial chain and supply chain, and improve the resilience of the economic system to cope with the risk impact of climate change. (Xinhua News Agency)