Hold the bottom line of food and energy security and build a solid foundation for development and development
2022-04-13
Food and energy are the most basic means of production and living to support the healthy and orderly operation of the national economy. Food and energy security is one of the largest in China, and ensuring food and energy security is a major strategic and fundamental issue. We should firmly hold the bottom line of food and energy security, consolidate the foundation for stable production of agriculture and oil and gas, comprehensively improve the supply guarantee capacity, firmly implement the strategy of giving priority to conservation, take the initiative of development in our own hands, and deal with the uncertainty of the external environment with the certainty of our own development. In the face of the century epidemic and extreme weather, ensure the supply and stable price of grain and energy, and hand in qualified answers Food and energy are important primary products, and their supply is vulnerable to epidemic and extreme weather. Over the past three years, the epidemic in the 21st century has led to the disorder of global supply chains, abundant liquidity, contributed to the sharp rise in international food and energy prices, and some commodity prices were once divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand. Under the background of global energy supply shortage, China has compacted the responsibility of all departments, localities and enterprises to ensure the safety and warmth of the people through the winter, highlighting the advantages of China's system and the advantages of a complete, independent and complete industrial system. Last winter and this spring, in view of the core factors causing the sharp fluctuation of coal and power market prices, the relevant government departments treated the situation according to the type, applied the remedy to the case, accurately grasped the time point and intensity of regulation, and comprehensively adopted a series of measures such as two-way regulation of supply and demand, strengthening market supervision and expectation management. From the policy effect of ensuring supply and price stability, the current daily coal output is stable at more than 12 million tons, and the domestic coal price has fallen sharply. China's coal supply and price stability has also contributed to stabilizing international coal and other energy prices. China has become an important "stabilizer" of global prices. China's coal and other basic energy supply and stable prices have achieved a better combination of an effective market and a promising government. On the basis of insisting that the coal price is formed by the market, we have defined the reasonable range of price and strengthened the range regulation, guided the coal price (i.e. the 5500kcal medium and long-term transaction tax price of underground coal in Qinhuangdao Port) to operate within a reasonable range of 570-770 yuan per ton, and the coal and electricity prices can be effectively transmitted within a reasonable range. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in the th century, the production, transportation, supply and consumption of global grain and other agricultural and sideline products have encountered a series of thorny problems. Some countries and regions have encountered a food crisis and food supply shortage rarely seen in decades, resulting in serious high inflation in their countries. In sharp contrast with foreign countries, China has taken many measures to stabilize and maintain production, resist the adverse weather effects of drought and flood, and ensure that the annual output of major grain has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion kg, and the per capita grain share has reached 474 kg. We have exceeded the 400 kg "safety line" proposed by the FAO for four consecutive years. Food security can be fully guaranteed, and we can stabilize our jobs. The stability of domestic grain production has created basic conditions for the stability of grain market prices. Grain prices are the basis of 100 prices, and "grain price stability" means "100 price stability". In 2021, China's consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.9% year-on-year, achieved the effect of low inflation operation, and became a model of global price stability. The great changes in the past century have accelerated the evolution, and we should not be careless about the risk of food and energy security From the perspective of the supply and demand pattern of global important primary products, the distribution is uneven and has obvious structural characteristics. In particular, the supply of basic energy such as oil and natural gas is relatively concentrated, which needs to be traded and settled through the global bulk commodity trade network and guaranteed through transcontinental ocean transportation or pipeline transportation, Therefore, it is prone to supply interruption risk due to geopolitical conflict between major oil and gas producing countries and port fortresses. Since the end of February this year, geopolitical events have led to tensions. As the event involves major oil and gas producing countries in the world, the fear of oil and gas supply interruption in the country has spread all over the world. The international crude oil price once soared by more than 130 US dollars / barrel, and China's import pressure on supply guarantee and price stability has further increased. In terms of demand, China is still in the middle and late stage of industrialization and the rapid development of urbanization, and still needs a considerable number and scale of energy primary products to support industrial development and stable economic and social operation. China's consumption of some energy accounts for a relatively large proportion of international trade, and the overseas supply source is relatively single. Objectively speaking, there are certain pressures and risks in stabilizing and safe supply, Ensuring energy security risks must not be careless. In terms of food security, we should be fully prepared to deal with the impact of extreme weather or emergencies. In recent years, the large circulation mode of "centralized production and national sales" of agricultural and sideline products in China has developed into the norm. For example, the output of vegetables in the top 12 provinces exceeds 74% of the country, and only Shandong and Henan provinces account for 20% of the country. The relative dispersion of production and sales areas leads to the expansion of transportation radius, which not only increases the circulation cost, but also objectively increases the links of amplifying the price signal, which is easy to lead to the increase of price fluctuation. Especially in case of extreme weather and natural disasters, the overall balance of supply and demand may be broken, and the structural regional imbalance in the short term will be revealed in stages. In addition, in recent years, the transmission pressure from international energy prices to the cost of food and agriculture products has also increased. The rise in energy prices has pushed up the cost of agricultural materials and transportation costs to varying degrees, thus driving up the price of agricultural products. This problem is more obvious abroad. Due to the continuous fermentation of geopolitical events, involving the world's largest fertilizer exporter and major energy producing areas in Europe, European natural gas is facing the possibility of supply interruption, resulting in the continuous rise of natural gas prices, and some fertilizer plants have to stop production or reduce production, resulting in the continuous sharp rise of fertilizer prices. China has stabilized the supply of agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizer from multiple links such as production, supply, storage and marketing, so as to alleviate the input pressure of foreign price rise on relevant domestic industries. In short, after the impact of the epidemic in the 21st century, the supply chain of the global industrial chain related to major primary products is in the process of reconstruction, and the international liquidity is still in a relatively abundant stage, it is relatively easy to see a significant increase in the volatility of international food and energy prices. Some "two ends out" industrial enterprises are vulnerable to external shocks such as insufficient supply and abnormal price fluctuations. Therefore, the central government clearly proposed to correctly understand and grasp the supply guarantee of primary products, and closely prevent the supply gap of some primary products such as grain and energy from evolving into a "grey rhinoceros" event, which may have an adverse impact on the economic and social operation. Comprehensively strengthen the supply guarantee capacity and implement the comprehensive economy strategy To calmly cope with the changes in the century and the epidemic situation in the century and promote the steady and healthy development of economy and society, we must focus on the major strategic needs of the country and stabilize the basic market of agriculture and energy. This year's government work report focuses on "ensuring the supply of grain and other important agricultural products, continuing to ensure the supply and stable price of energy and important raw materials, and ensuring the people's livelihood and the normal production and operation of enterprises", and subdivides the relevant work into departments and localities, strengthening the main responsibility for ensuring safety. For the supply guarantee of primary products, we should "grasp both" and "hard" both in terms of open source and expenditure reduction. The first is to implement a comprehensive economy strategy. The "comprehensiveness" of the comprehensive saving strategy is reflected in several aspects. First, implement saving in the whole chain and whole process on both sides of supply and demand, promote the accelerated release of high-quality and compliant production capacity, curb unreasonable raw material demand and industrial and agricultural waste, especially open up the blocking points and bottlenecks of resource recycling, speed up the construction of waste (such as recycled raw materials) recycling system, and better strengthen the two-way regulation of supply and demand. Second, comprehensively strengthen the awareness and action of saving energy of various subjects. In the field of production, it is necessary to enhance the sense of responsibility of grain and energy production enterprises to actively save, intensively and recycle resources, take multiple measures to reduce the loss of grain machine harvest, improve the quality of agricultural machinery operation, and ensure the increase of production and income. In the field of consumption, we should enhance the people's awareness of saving, advocate a simple, moderate, green and low-carbon lifestyle, especially save food and energy, strictly practice diligence and thrift, save water and electricity, and oppose extravagance and waste in catering. In the medium and long term, China's food and energy supply and demand will remain in a tight balance, and ensuring the safe supply of food and energy will be a protracted war. Therefore, we should effectively hedge the uncertainty of the external environment with the maximum certainty of enhancing our own production guarantee capacity, firmly put the "rice bowl" of grain and energy in our own hands, and focus on strengthening the safe and stable supply of grain, energy and raw materials. The key is to practice hard, enhance the production guarantee capacity of domestic resources, accelerate the exploration and development of oil, gas, minerals and other resources, improve the national strategic material reserve system and ensure the supply of primary products, which is an important task assigned in the 2022 government work report. At the same time, we should crack down on unfair competition in the market, such as driving up prices and hoarding strange things, and strive to maintain the basic stability of price levels. From the perspective of energy security, the recently released "14th five year plan for modern energy system" points out that China has entered a new stage of building a modern energy system, which is reflected in the superposition of "four phases", that is, energy security has entered a critical period, low-carbon transformation of energy has entered an important window period, modern energy industry has entered a period of innovation and upgrading, and universal energy services have entered a period of consolidation and upgrading. Therefore, we should enhance the stability and security of the energy supply chain, accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, optimize the layout of energy development, and improve the modernization level of the energy industry chain. From the perspective of risk prevention, we should enhance the ability to prevent the risk of abnormal market fluctuations from the whole chain of production, supply, reserve, sales and processing, and firmly grasp the bottom line of ensuring the safe supply of basic energy. In particular, we will enhance the reserve and regulation capacity of materials in key energy categories, optimize the coordinated guarantee of production capacity and regional layout, and form a guarantee force with orderly connection and echelon support with physical reserves. From the perspective of food security, we should implement the hard measures of "long teeth" for cultivated land protection, strictly abide by the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, and put improving the comprehensive agricultural production capacity in a more prominent position. The first is to classify and clarify the use of cultivated land, strictly implement the priority order of cultivated land use, clarify that permanent basic farmland is mainly used for grain production, and all high-standard farmland is used for grain production in principle. In 2022, 100 million mu of high standard farmland will be built, and 400 million mu of efficient and water-saving irrigation area will be built in total. On this basis, we should stabilize and improve the self-sufficiency rate of grain in the main sales areas, ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grain in the production and marketing balance areas, promote the construction of the national food security industrial belt, deeply implement the high-quality grain project, improve the unit yield and quality of grain, and strive to ensure the goal of stabilizing the sown area of grain and maintaining the output above 1.3 trillion kg. At the same time, we should improve the monitoring and early warning system for the whole industrial chain of agricultural products, promote the establishment of a unified information release system for the supply and demand of agricultural products, and strengthen regulation and emergency support by classification and variety. The most important thing is to make it profitable for farmers to grow grain and encourage the main producing areas to grasp grain. In 2022, we should appropriately raise the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat, stabilize the subsidy policies for corn and soybean producers and rice subsidies, realize the full cost insurance and planting income insurance for the three major grain crops, and fully cover the major grain producing provinces and counties, and improve the long-term mechanism for ensuring the income of grain planting. (Xinhua News Agency)