Affected by factors such as the spread of domestic epidemic and international geopolitical conflicts, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) released on the 31st fell to 49.5%, but it is still near the critical point of 50%, and some sub indexes and industry PMI are still at a good level, indicating that there are still positive factors in economic operation. "Affected by this round of epidemic, some enterprises in some areas have temporarily reduced production and stopped production, which has affected the normal production and operation of relevant upstream and downstream enterprises. At the same time, the recent international geopolitical conflict has intensified, the export orders of some enterprises have been reduced or cancelled, and the manufacturing production activities and market demand have weakened." Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, made an analysis. Statistics show that in March, the production index and new order index fell to the contraction range; The new export order index decreased by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, ending the two consecutive upward trend; The supplier delivery time index is 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which has a certain impact on the stability of the manufacturing supply chain. In terms of import index, in March, the import index was 46.9%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. Wen Tao, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, analyzed that the equipment manufacturing industry is greatly affected by geopolitical conflicts and rising commodity prices. For example, the conflict leads to fluctuations in the supply of chip and battery raw materials and crude oil, and the price rises, which pushes up the price and cost of new energy vehicles, and inhibits residents' demand for cars to a certain extent. As a leading indicator of economic operation, although the manufacturing PMI fell in March, it still lingered near the "boom and bust line", and there is still good support to maintain the stable operation of the economy. The high-tech manufacturing industry continued to expand. In March, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry was 50.4%, which was lower than that of the previous month, but continued to be in the expansion range. From the perspective of enterprise employment and market expectation, in March, the employee index and business activity expectation index of high-tech manufacturing industry were 52.0% and 57.8% respectively, 3.4 and 2.1 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry. This shows that the high-tech manufacturing industry has strong development toughness, and enterprises continue to be optimistic about the future market development. The relevant person in charge of Sany Heavy Industry said that at present, enterprises are accelerating the global manufacturing layout, promoting overseas digital strategy, building intelligent "lighthouse factory", building localized advanced manufacturing capacity, and are full of confidence in the market prospect of high-tech manufacturing industry. PMI of basic raw materials industry has rebounded. Despite the pressure of rising raw material prices, the production and operation activities of the basic raw material industry remained stable and increased. In March, the PMI of the basic raw material industry was 49.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. "Although the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry are facing the pressure of rising raw material prices, the purchase price indexes of these three industries are more than 10 percentage points lower than those of the basic raw material industry, indicating that the basic raw material industry has digested part of the cost pressure, and the relevant policies for maintaining the supply and price stability of important raw materials and primary products have achieved good results." Wen Tao said. The enterprise mentality is still relatively positive. In March, although the expected index of production and operation activities decreased by 3 percentage points to 55.7% compared with the previous month, compared with the average value of 53.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, the current expected index of production and operation activities is still at a good level, and the overall expectation of enterprises remains relatively optimistic. In addition, the operation of large enterprises is relatively stable. In March, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.3%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but 1.8 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry. It is in the boom range and continues to expand. Mainly affected by the epidemic, in March, the business activity index of non manufacturing industry fell below the critical point. However, with the warming of the climate, the construction progress of the construction industry has accelerated, the prosperity level of the construction industry has increased slightly, the business activity index of information service industry has remained at a high level, and the development trend of new kinetic energy has remained stable. "The survey enterprises reflect that as the epidemic situation in some areas is effectively controlled, the suppressed production and demand will gradually recover, and the market is expected to pick up." Zhao Qinghe said. However, under the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations for economic development, coupled with the continuous impact of the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts, the overall economic prosperity level has dropped, and the operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased, indicating that China's economy still needs to climb over the ridge and overcome difficulties. Zhang Liqun, a researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, suggested that we should pay close attention to improving the accuracy of epidemic prevention and control and effectively reduce the impact of the epidemic on economic and social activities; Pay close attention to the detailed implementation of policies related to expanding domestic demand, especially the work related to major government construction projects, and strive to start construction early and achieve results early; Carefully do the work related to ensuring supply and price stability to ensure the supply safety and price stability of important means of production. (Xinhua News Agency)