On March 30, the people's Bank of China continued to carry out reverse repo operation, and implemented 100 billion investment for four consecutive working days to protect the liquidity at the end of the quarter. In the view of insiders, recently, the people's Bank of China timely strengthened open market operation to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. According to the current situation, there may be small fluctuations in some parts, but the capital surface is generally stable and cross quarter. Considering the need to maintain the moderate growth of new credit and hedge the peak of quarterly tax period, some analysts judged that the RRR reduction in the second quarter could be expected. Continuously implement 100 billion level launch On March 30, the people's Bank of China launched a 150 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation. On the same day, 20 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and the central bank realized a net investment of 130 billion yuan. In fact, since March 25, the people's Bank of China has opened a large amount of "water replenishment" mode. On March 25, the people's Bank of China launched a 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and another 150 billion yuan operation on March 28. Since then, it has been maintained at the level of 150 billion yuan per day. On the 25th, 28th, 29th and 30th, four consecutive operations reached the level of 100 billion, with a total investment of 550 billion yuan and a net investment of 450 billion yuan. Thanks to the people's Bank of China's increased efforts to "replenish water", the market capital has generally remained stable recently, and the fluctuation of capital prices has been ironed in time. On the 30th, the typical 7-day bond repo rate dr007 in the inter-bank market rose 5 basis points to 2.23%, and the fluctuation level did not exceed the seasonal variation law of previous years. The overnight repo rate dr001 fell further to 1.50%, down 19 basis points from the previous value. An institutional source said that there is little suspense about a smooth cross quarter. It is expected that the people's Bank of China will maintain a certain scale of investment at the end of the quarter and continue to take care of the capital. "Even some local fluctuations are normal and will not last long." In April, the capital was mainly stable Looking forward to April, the factors affecting capital mainly include tax settlement, payment for government bond issuance and bank payment standards. According to the judgment of many analysts, the probability of sharp fluctuations in capital in April is small, and it is expected to continue to maintain a stable trend. "Considering that the over storage rate is expected to be high at the end of March, even without considering the investment of the people's Bank of China, the over storage rate in April is expected to be in a relatively reasonable range." Chi Guangsheng, chief fixed income analyst at Anxin securities, said. According to Shen Xinfeng, chief Macro Analyst of Northeast Securities, although April is the big month of tax payment, due to the impact of the front of fiscal expenditure this year, the fiscal force will support the excess reserve rate. Therefore, there will be no obvious liquidity gap in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April. In addition, the impact of tax payment factors is expected to be diluted when a number of tax reduction and fee reduction measures are implemented. Yin Ruizhe, chief fixed income analyst of China Merchants Securities, analyzed that a number of tax reduction and fee reduction measures will be implemented in April, including the refund of incremental VAT allowance, which will be implemented from April. On the whole, the risk of sharp fluctuations in capital in April is relatively small. "Considering that the liquidity investment of the people's Bank of China has continued to send a relatively friendly signal to the capital side in recent months, the capital side is expected to remain stable in April." Chi Guangsheng said. The use of tools such as standard reduction is not excluded Many analysts pointed out that the people's Bank of China may reduce the reserve requirement in the future for the purpose of hedging the impact of the peak of the quarterly tax period, stabilizing the medium and long-term capital supply and promoting banks to expand credit supply. Ming Ming, the joint chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the next quarter still needs to face the impact of factors such as the peak tax period, the centralized issuance of government bonds and the large maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit, which may become the trigger factor of RRR reduction. In addition, in order to guide financial institutions to increase credit and reduce loan interest rates, we should make up for the medium and long-term capital gap and reduce the cost of bank liabilities. RRR reduction is still one of the optional operations. "The key in the future is to maintain the stability of credit growth. Monetary policy still needs to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises." Sun Binbin, chief analyst of fixed income of Tianfeng securities, said that from the perspective of providing long-term and stable sources of funds and stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, the RRR reduction in April is still expected. For the impact of overseas monetary policy adjustment, Shen Xinfeng said that referring to the situation in 2018, it can be found that the tightening of overseas monetary policy has less constraint on China's RRR reduction than interest rate reduction. At present, China's RRR reduction is still feasible. In the near future, the RMB exchange rate continues to be relatively high, which also helps to reduce concerns about RRR reduction. (Xinhua News Agency)