The people's Bank of China's medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation in March is about to be implemented, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March is about to begin, and the trend of monetary policy of major countries will undoubtedly become the focus of attention in the next week. At present, the mainstream view is that it is almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates in March and start the interest rate increase cycle, and the accelerated policy adjustment of major overseas central banks will be further verified. However, at the same time, the market still has expectations for the people's Bank of China to further relax the currency, and this expectation has increased significantly with the landing of financial data in February. Experts pointed out that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is not enough to change the "me dominated" situation of China's monetary policy. At present, the requirements for steady growth are very certain. Credit easing is still in the promotion stage and still needs the escort of monetary policy. The people's Bank of China may further reduce reserve requirements and interest rates. Steady growth is the primary goal at present Experts believe that at present, the requirements for steady growth are quite certain. Although the Fed is about to start the interest rate hike cycle, China's monetary policy will still "focus on me". Yu Yongding, member of the academic department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an exclusive interview with the reporter of the China Securities Journal: "China's interest rate cut and the Fed's interest rate rise will inevitably lead to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States, but the narrowing of the interest rate gap is not enough to change the direction of China's monetary policy." Yu Yongding explained that, first of all, even if the Federal Reserve raises the federal benchmark interest rate to 2%, considering the inflation in the United States, the real interest rate in the United States is still negative, while China's policy interest rate and market benchmark interest rate are still positive. Secondly, in recent years, China's macro Prudential Management of foreign exchange has been continuously improved and the policy toolbox has been richer, which can ensure that there is no serious capital outflow. Thirdly, the RMB exchange rate has been more flexible, and the flexibility can be further released in the future to offset the impact of cross-border capital flows on the independence of monetary policy. "This year, China has made it clear to stabilize growth, or marks an important adjustment of macroeconomic policy priorities." In Yu Yongding's view, since the general direction of macro policy has been set, the trend of monetary policy will naturally tend to be further relaxed in the future. "At present, the people's Bank of China has taken some measures in this direction, and I believe more measures will be introduced in the future. In the future, the policy interest rate, market benchmark interest rate and market interest rate of the people's Bank of China will further decline." It is worth mentioning that the financial data in February recently announced that the scale of social financing and new RMB loans in that month were lower than market expectations, highlighting the importance of expanding credit and boosting financing demand to stabilize the macro-economic market. Li Qilin, director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute, suggested that at a time when the financial data in February are poor and the recent trend of bill interest rate indicates that credit supply may still be weak, investors need to pay attention to whether the people's Bank of China will further cut interest rates or introduce other regulatory measures. It is possible to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates The policy orientation of steady growth is reflected in monetary policy, which is to broaden credit. Experts pointed out that considering that the sustainability and stability of credit expansion need to be enhanced, the possibility of the people's Bank of China further reducing reserve requirements and interest rates has increased significantly. In order to achieve the goal of wide credit, the joint chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly analyzed that at the supply level, the people's Bank of China may take measures such as increasing the loanable funds of banks, supporting banks to supplement capital, relaxing the management of credit lines, and guiding banks to increase credit support for specific industries; At the demand level, the people's Bank of China may use such means as reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, reducing the cost of bank liabilities, providing targeted liquidity support or price concessions. Experts pointed out that the window of interest rate cut during the year has not been closed and may usher in an important observation point in the near future. Zhang Yu, chief Macro Analyst of Huachuang securities, said that there are three main reasons for further interest rate cuts: first, at the level of credit expansion, it is crucial to stabilize the real estate market; Second, the financial policy has the requirement to continue to promote the downward trend of enterprise financing costs; Third, the current real economy is lack of financing willingness, and the role of interest rate reduction in stimulating financing demand is relatively direct. For the possible time point of interest rate reduction, there are still differences among all parties in the current market. In Zhang Yu's view, cutting interest rates in the window period may make the market feel "comfortable" and highlight the independence of China's monetary policy. For example, March 15 is an important observation time point for interest rate reduction. Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that although the people's Bank of China may reduce the operating interest rate when continuing the MLF on March 15, it does not rule out the possibility of waiting until the Federal Reserve discusses the interest rate in March. The latter approach can reduce the spillover effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase on China's financial market to a certain extent. Some experts believe that interest rates may be cut more than once in the future. Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC international, said that the follow-up interest rate reduction may reach 2 to 3 times, and the quoted interest rate (LPR) of one-year loan market is expected to drop by 20 basis points. In addition, in terms of RRR reduction, Mingming believes that the arrival of the peak of the subsequent quarterly tax period and the consumption of liquidity by government bond issuance may become the trigger factors of RRR reduction. From the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans and reducing financing costs, further RRR reduction is also necessary. Structural policies are expected to intensify The government work report pointed out that we should strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, and provide stronger support for the real economy. In addition to reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, experts believe that structural monetary policy will continue to play an important traction role in the future. Small and micro enterprises, green areas and areas with slow credit growth may become the main focus of wide credit. Zhong Zhengsheng predicted that monetary policy will increase the use of structural policy tools and optimize the direction of loan delivery. First of all, increase the amount of re loans for supporting agriculture and small expenditure, and increase the amount of existing structural policy tools. Secondly, broaden the application scope of current refinancing and rediscount tools, such as extending carbon emission reduction support tools to local banks and increasing their application fields. Thirdly, launch more targeted support tools, such as refinancing and rediscount policies for the financing of service enterprises in manufacturing and non real estate infrastructure. Hu Wenyan, a macro analyst at Caixin Research Institute, expects that the structural monetary policy will continue to be strengthened this year, and the scale of structural instruments such as refinancing is expected to continue to expand. According to Dai Zhifeng, director of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, the scale of inclusive small and micro loan support tools provided by the people's Bank of China is expected to be about 28.7 billion yuan this year, and the annual increment of inclusive small and micro loans of local corporate banks is about 2.87 trillion yuan; The refinancing amount of 400 billion yuan is expected to support the scale of credit loans of 400 billion yuan to 1 trillion yuan. From the perspective of carbon emission reduction support tools, it is estimated that the issuance scale of support tools of the people's Bank of China in the whole year will reach 364.1 billion yuan, and the scale of new green credit will reach 4.77 trillion yuan. (Xinhua News Agency)