What about the economic growth target of about 5.5% in 2022? Can it be achieved?

2022-03-09

GDP growth of about 5.5% - the expected target of economic growth in this year's government work report has attracted great attention at home and abroad. "This is a challenging goal." There are foreign media comments. The goal of economic growth guides the direction of development. What do you think of the expected target of about 5.5%? How? It is crucial to clarify these issues of public opinion concern. Why is it set at about 5.5%? At present, the global epidemic continues, commodity prices fluctuate at a high level, and the external environment becomes more complex, severe and uncertain. Domestic economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. Under the complex situation, some foreign media believe that China's economic growth target of about 5.5% is set high, and China's economic prospects are "not optimistic". How to view the expected growth target this year? For the setting of this goal, the government work report pointed out that it mainly considers the needs of stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihood and preventing risks, and is connected with the average economic growth in the past two years and the objectives and requirements of the 14th five year plan. "This is a medium and high-speed growth on a high base, reflecting the initiative.". "Setting the expected target of economic growth this year at about 5.5% is more scientific and reasonable." Xiang Dong, deputy director of the Research Office of the State Council, said that this is in line with China's potential growth level at the present stage and is conducive to guiding expectations, boosting confidence and building consensus on development. In 2020, considering the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the government work report did not mention the specific target of economic growth, and the actual economic growth rate of China was 2.3%. In 2021, the government work report proposed a target of more than 6%, and finally achieved an increase of 8.1%, with an average increase of 5.1% in two years. "It is realistic to appropriately adjust the growth target on the high base this year." The vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee said that he should try his best to set the annual target of sustainable development and avoid setting the target of sustainable development between the previous year and the next year. Yao Yang, President of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, estimates that China's potential economic growth rate is still between 5.5% and 6%. The average economic growth rate in the first two years was mainly due to the fact that the epidemic did not reach 5.5%. This year's target setting is closer to the potential growth level. In 2021, China's total economy will exceed 114 trillion yuan. On this basis, if we achieve a growth rate of 5.5%, the corresponding annual economic increment can rank among the top 20 in the world according to the economy. According to an article in the New York Times, China's economic growth target of about 5.5% is lower than before, but still higher than that of most countries, which can boost confidence in global uncertainty. Can the goal of about 5.5% be achieved? Some foreign media said that when setting this year's economic growth target, China underestimated the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the economy. Such doubts to some extent highlight the challenges facing China's economy. "The recovery of consumption and investment is slow, it is more difficult to stabilize exports, the supply of energy and raw materials is still tight", "we must climb over the ridge", "this year's economic and social development has heavy tasks and many challenges" The government work report fully estimated the problems and challenges faced by development this year, and believed that the target of about 5.5% "needs hard work to be achieved". The pressure and challenge are unprecedented, but it does not mean that the goal is difficult to achieve. "In the face of new downward pressure, we should put steady growth in a more prominent position." According to the government work report. Macro policies should be stable and effective, micro policies should continue to stimulate the vitality of market players, structural policies should strive to smooth the national economic cycle, and science and technology policies should be solidly implemented... A series of policy combinations should form a good environment conducive to steady growth: The scale of fiscal expenditure has expanded by more than 2 trillion yuan over last year. It is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds of local governments. It is estimated that the tax rebate and tax reduction for the whole year will be about 2.5 trillion yuan, and the investment in the central budget will be 640 billion Yuan... A series of hard measures have combined to form a strong force conducive to steady growth. "Although the environment is not optimistic, China still has enough policy space to support stable economic growth." Ruize, director of the China Bureau of the world bank, said. Recently, the international oil price broke through the $110 per barrel mark, and the prices of coal, natural gas and iron ore remained high. Some foreign media worry that the continued high global inflation will bring new challenges to China's supply and price stability. Hu Zucai, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, responded that China's economy has strong resilience, large market space and rich policy toolbox. In particular, China's grain production has had a bumper harvest year after year, the production capacity of pigs is sufficient, and the supply of industrial and agricultural products and services is abundant. It is fully qualified, capable and confident to continue to maintain the stable operation of prices. "China's economy is confident to withstand the downward pressure and achieve the expected goal." Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference, said that China's economy has shown strong resilience and stamina, as well as the vitality and anti risk ability of market players, which is the confidence and foundation for striving to achieve the annual goals and tasks. How to accomplish the annual goals and tasks? We will strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, stabilize market players and ensure employment, unswervingly deepen reform, and deeply implement the innovation driven development strategy Open the government work report and strive to complete the "construction drawings" of the annual objectives and tasks through nine aspects of work deployment. Promote the implementation and effectiveness of major decisions and stabilize the macro-economic market—— Lin Yifu, honorary president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, believes that this year's economic growth rate will probably be "low before high". There is still room for China's active fiscal policy to further release the demand potential by supporting new infrastructure, green development, Rural Revitalization and other fields. Strengthen the overall coordination of various policies and anchor the direction of high-quality development—— Bai chongen, Dean of the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University, said that we should implement the innovation driven development strategy, accelerate the development of modern industrial system, promote the optimization and upgrading of economic system, and give full play to the first driving force of innovation leading development. Focus on effectively addressing risks and challenges, and coordinate development and security—— Some foreign media are worried that increasing policy support may lead to negative effects. Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, responded that instead of doing the "strong flood irrigation" type of strong stimulation, the policies should be precise, effective and sustainable, so that the negative effects such as declining investment efficiency, overcapacity and asset bubbles could be effectively avoided. The more difficult it is, the more we should strengthen our confidence and do solid work. "China is still in a period of strategic development opportunities." Member Li Daokui, President of the China Institute of economic thought and practice at Tsinghua University, believes that China has super large-scale market advantages, great potential for urbanization and economic geographical redistribution, and hundreds of millions of people who look forward to a better life and work hard for it, which is the biggest foundation for the long-term improvement of the economy. In the first two months, the import and export of goods trade increased by 13.3% year-on-year, the power generation increased by about 6.7%, and the railway loading freight volume increased rapidly... This spring, the north and south of the river, the fields and factory parks were busy. Based on the new development stage, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, and speed up the construction of a new development pattern. As long as the whole country works with one heart and one mind to overcome difficulties, China's economy is confident to achieve its annual goals and tasks and move steadily along the path of high-quality development. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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