After the sudden escalation of the situation in Ukraine in recent days, global commodity prices, especially oil and gas prices, have fluctuated sharply, making European countries highly dependent on Russia face the risk of insufficient supply or even interruption. At the same time, a large number of Ukrainian refugees have arrived at the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania and other countries, putting pressure on European governments. Analysts pointed out that Europe is at the forefront of the game between the United States and Russia in Ukraine, and the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine first has an impact on Europe. European diplomatic efforts to cool the situation failed to achieve results, and Europe's "Strategic Autonomy" suffered a major setback. Energy supply risks European oil and gas market prices fluctuated sharply after Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine on the 24th. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery broke through $100 a barrel on the 24th, the first time since September 2014. The wholesale prices of natural gas in the UK and the Netherlands rose 30% to 40%. Many industry experts predict that oil and gas prices will remain high this year because geopolitical risks will exacerbate global supply shortages. Europe is highly dependent on Russia for energy supply. Data show that about 30% and 40% of the oil and natural gas imported by EU countries come from Russia respectively. Among them, the natural gas imported from Russia by Austria, Italy and Slovakia is mainly transported through Ukraine, and some natural gas from Germany and Poland is also transported through Ukraine. After the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the German government announced the suspension of the "beixi-2" project, which could have increased Russia's natural gas supply. The EU has also imposed sanctions on Russia in recent days, including excluding some Russian banks from the global banking financial Telecommunications Association (Swift) payment system, further increasing the uncertainty of Russia's energy supply to Europe. According to the report of the European and global economic research institute in Brussels, if Russia stops sending natural gas, the EU's natural gas reserves will be cleared in March this year in the event of severe cold weather in Europe. European countries in the energy transition are unlikely to find alternative supplies in the short term. Wu Huiping, deputy director of the German Research Center of Tongji University, pointed out that Europe has close trade ties with Russia. Russia is the fifth largest trading partner of the EU, and the EU is more dependent on Russian energy. Among the many rounds of sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia, many measures have caused great losses to European countries. Refugee crisis or recurrence In recent days, fighting in Ukraine has continued in many places, and a large number of Ukrainian refugees are pouring into neighboring countries. Poland, Germany and other countries are making corresponding preparations for the reception of Ukrainian refugees, and the media are also discussing how to avoid the recurrence of the refugee crisis caused by the war in Syria in 2015. The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for refugees said on the 26th that as of the same day, at least 120000 people had entered neighbouring countries from Ukraine, most of them to Poland and Moldova, and some to Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. Xinhua News Agency reporters saw at the shegini border station in Poland on the 26th that the road was full of buses and cars from Ukraine, and many Ukrainian women and children were waiting to go through the formalities to enter Poland. Polish media reported that the Polish government had previously set up eight reception points in Lublin and Carpathian provinces bordering Ukraine to prepare for the resettlement of these refugees. Some Polish media predict that the number of refugees in Ukraine will be as high as 1 million. At the end of last year, thousands of refugees arrived at the Polish border through Belarus, which has put a lot of pressure on Poland's border control. Many Polish people said they were afraid of the impact of the recurrence of the refugee crisis on society. "Strategic Autonomy" suffered a setback Since the tense situation in Ukraine, the EU, which has always advocated "Strategic Autonomy", hopes to make achievements in diplomatic mediation, but the reality disappoints it. At the end of last year, Russia issued a negotiation proposal to the United States and NATO, which made the EU feel "ignored". Borrell, the EU's high representative for foreign and security policy, complained that there should be no lack of the EU in the discussion of European security. With the increasing tension, dignitaries from the European Union, Germany, France and other countries have frequently contacted and communicated with relevant parties to try to cool the tension. The "Normandy model" of dialogue held by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine was launched again, and the atmosphere of negotiation once gave people hope. However, the United States and NATO refused to consider Russia's security demands and insisted on supporting Ukraine's accession to NATO. At the same time, they repeatedly played up the threat of war, which finally made Russia completely disappointed in the negotiations and turned to military options. Facts have proved that the diplomatic efforts of the European Union can not have a significant impact on the strategic choice of the United States and Russia. On the contrary, the European side can only follow the United States to continuously increase sanctions against Russia in the escalation of tensions. Wu Huiping pointed out that in the game between the United States and Russia around Ukraine, Europe has undoubtedly become a loser. French President macron and German Chancellor Scholtz previously conducted intensive shuttle diplomacy, hoping to play a leading role on issues involving Europe's own interests. But judging from the results, Europe will rely more on the United States for security, and the efforts of "Strategic Autonomy" have suffered a major setback. (Xinhua News Agency)