On February 18, meituan's share price fell 14.86%, below HK $200 to HK $188 per share. Earlier in the day, 14 departments including the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. In the relief and support measures for the catering industry, it was mentioned that "Guide Internet platform enterprises such as takeout to further reduce the service fee standard of catering merchants and reduce the operating costs of relevant catering enterprises." The difficulty of catering under the epidemic is well known. Whether it is the demands of catering businesses, external assistance or social discussion, the focus is on takeout. However, what needs to be considered is: is the operation on takeout really the positive solution to the catering problem? 01 truth behind "catering difficulty" On January 25, the village foundation submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; On January 12, qixintian submitted the prospectus; At the end of December 2021, my uncle plans to IPO in a shares; In November 2021, the local chicken is going to be listed on the main board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange... Since 2021, Chinese catering has been listed in a pile. One of the reasons behind the epidemic is the lesson of the epidemic. As Jia Guolong, the founder of Xibei youmian, said, "the disaster is very educational. The epidemic tells me that my hematopoietic ability and anti risk ability are not so strong, and the cash epidemic industry also needs capital support". Over the past two years, Ben's singing offline catering has suffered a heavy blow. According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, catering revenue increased by 18.6% over the previous year, decreased by 1.1% over 2019, and decreased by an average of 0.5% in two years. The scale of catering consumption has not yet returned to the pre epidemic level. As an industry dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises and carrying a large number of labor and employment, capillary catering plays an important role in society and economy. Therefore, the difficulty of catering has become a topic of the whole country and society. So, what's the truth about the difficulty of catering? The first is the difficulty of income. The lessons learned from the epidemic are not only catering enterprises, but also consumers. The reduction of consumption intention is now affecting all walks of life, and catering is also one of them. The second is the high cost. Without a large increase in income, the rising cost has become a straw to crush many catering enterprises. At present, there are "three highs" in China's catering industry, that is, high rent cost, high labor cost and high cost of food materials, resulting in continuous compression of enterprise profits. Catering enterprises undoubtedly account for the highest proportion of raw materials and employee costs, which are basically about 40%. For example, a hot pot head enterprise, the third quarterly report shows that its raw materials account for 42.3% of revenue, 35.6% of employees and 3.4% of hydropower. In 2021, the cost of raw materials and manpower increased, and the operating pressure of catering enterprises increased. For this hotpot head enterprise, the rent is relatively low, because it has a strong brand effect and has a relative voice in commercial real estate. For general catering enterprises, especially small and micro catering enterprises, the proportion of rent can even reach 20% - 30%, that is, for an order of 20 yuan, 4-6 yuan should be used to pay the rent. Of course, for some catering enterprises, they also need to pay commissions to the takeout platform. Once, someone gave the Commission figure of 20%, but this is actually a misreading. Last year, meituan and hungry have successively reformed the transparency of commissions. What people often call "Commission" actually refers to the technical service fee. It can be seen from the research data that this figure is not high. According to the 2021 catering takeout merchant research report released by Aurora big data, more than 90% of merchants pay commissions, that is, the technical service fee is less than 8%, and the proportion of merchants with commissions of 6% - 8% reaches 66.3%. The Commission of "wait for me to deliver to the door" of wanghong seafood stall in Guangzhou accounts for 7%. In the understanding of merchants, this is a channel fee. You can enter the platform, participate in operation activities and services, obtain platform traffic, etc. According to the person in charge of its online operation, the average person of the three stores in the "wait for me to deliver to the door" public comment is about 100 yuan. Their takeout service often chooses self delivery, so the fee paid to the platform is basically 7% of the technical service fee. Previously, yidiancaijing has studied the rate transparency adjustment of doordash, the largest takeout distribution platform in the United States - the charging items are divided into platform basic channel fee (Commission) with a fixed proportion of 6% and distribution Commission with different proportions. Among them, the distribution Commission is divided into three levels: ordinary basic, preferred plus and selected premier. Among them, the ordinary distribution Commission is 15%, the preferred distribution Commission is 25%, and the selected distribution Commission is 30%. The distribution scope is expanding. The more obvious difference is that, unlike raw materials, manpower and rent, takeout Commission is a flexible cost, that is, it is paid only after income is generated, rather than rent and manpower. If there is no income, you have to pay rent and wages. It can be said that this is a cost strongly related to revenue. The opposite of high cost is more revenue. Therefore, for more businesses, the takeout platform is an additional revenue unit, not simply a cost unit. Behind each commission is actually the increase of revenue and profit of each order, and it is also the premise for the normal operation of the whole takeout industry. This is particularly obvious during the epidemic period - if merchants cannot operate normally during the epidemic period, there will be no commission fees if there are no orders online. However, even if they are not operating, the offline rent must be paid. "I think the role of the rate transparency reform is not only to reduce the Commission, but also to make us see more clearly the cost composition of takeout (technical service fee and performance service fee)." Li Ling, the person in charge of one lamp in Wuhan, said that during the rebound of the epidemic in Wuhan in August, when the hall food was greatly affected, the income of takeout can cover the hard costs such as rent, water and electricity, food materials and labor of the store, ensuring the normal operation of the store. However, when solving the problem of "catering difficulty", catering businesses, the outside world and society invariably focus on reducing takeout Commission again. Compared with the income growth brought by the reduction of consumption intention and uncontrollable cost elements such as rent, raw materials and manpower, it is indeed the simplest and direct solution. It can be said that this is a choice between hard and soft issues. 02 is the general reduction of commission in takeout a positive solution? From the proposal of Catering Association and merchants in 2020, to the discussion at the social level in 2021, and then to the provisions at the policy level in February 2022, takeout Commission has been placed at the core of solving the problem of catering difficulty. Takeout platforms such as meituan and hungry have also become the focus of "attention". Both businesses, society and policies are exploring the possibility of further decline in takeout commissions. The corresponding decline in meituan's share price on February 18 seems to indicate the future that this possibility will lead to - a future that no one will benefit from. This future is related to three contradictions in takeout. Contradiction 1: short chain economy vs multi stakeholder Takeout is a short chain economy, which is composed of merchants, platforms and consumers. The role of the platform is to aggregate and distribute to maximize matching. But in fact, there are many stakeholders in this short chain, including distributors in addition to merchants, platforms and consumers. Among them, businesses (mostly small and medium-sized businesses), consumers and distributors are aggregated and carried by the platform, which makes them naturally become the gathering point and outbreak point of multiple contradictions (businesses consumers, distributors consumers, businesses distributors). When dealing with contradictions, they also press the gourd to float, becoming a "spotlight" existence. At the same time, the takeout platform is also the intersection of multiple interests. Whether the takeout brother earns more or less money, whether consumers receive more or less subsidies, and whether the merchant's commission is high or low are closely related and maintained by the takeout platform. The semi annual report shows that in the second quarter of last year, meituan's Commission (technical service fee and performance service fee) income from catering takeout was 20.354 billion yuan, and the cost related to distribution was 15.5 billion yuan, which means that more than 76% of the commission from merchants was used to pay the cost of riders. If we insist on the continuous decline of takeout Commission, the interests of takeout distributors, consumers and platforms will be affected in the interest community of "merchants platform takeout distributors consumers". Contradiction 2: the Internet eliminates physical boundaries vs distribution but limits boundaries The takeout platform has an advertising effect on catering businesses, which is also one of the reasons why the platform charges technical service fees. Mr. Xiong, a businessman in Shaoguan, Guangdong, has a deep understanding of this: "in addition to helping us deliver meals, takeout is also a platform to broaden the popularity of the store. Consumers can taste our meals without going to the store, which is equivalent to an advertising entrance with huge traffic." He operates three brands / categories and nine stores, including twist hands toast, doublemays big wave puff shop and Renmin twenty-four flavor coffee shop. Takeout accounts for about 40%. The newly established coffee shop has ranked first in meituan takeout and public comment. Mr. Xiong is actually a "second generation of diners". His parents run a large stall restaurant. Once "new things" such as the delivery platform have the old view of the previous generation. When the regional manager of the delivery platform invited them to settle in, they were driven away - "vampires" and "if the business of the store can't do it, do delivery?" Unexpectedly, after the epidemic came, my parents took the initiative to find Mr. Xiong and asked him to find the regional manager, hoping to settle in the takeout platform. Originally, they can only do business nearby. Now they can receive further orders, and the big stall has survived. If, like e-commerce, the advertising effect of takeout platform has no boundary, catering businesses will be able to expand infinitely. The technical service fee of several points is not a problem at all - Taobao live broadcast draws 20% commission, and businesses are still flocking to it, because of the boundless advertising effect of the Internet. But in fact, there are physical distance restrictions on takeout due to timeliness and distribution, and the cost increases gradually with the increase of distribution distance. This means that it can give businesses advertising effect and scale effect, that is, incremental value, but it needs to be within a certain geographical range, and the marginal cost caused by scale growth does not change significantly. Furthermore, the construction cost of the platform cannot be amortized indefinitely, and a certain proportion of each order must be used for platform maintenance. Contradiction 3: high frequency vs low price Although takeout is a high-frequency demand and a good traffic entrance, it also has the attributes of low price and high cost (distribution), which determines that it is not a very profitable business. As Mr. Xiong said, "the distribution cost of many orders for riders accounts for almost the majority of the overall cost, and the actual cost charged by the platform is often a few cents per order." Meituan financial report shows that in the third quarter of 2021, the operating profit of catering takeout was 876 million yuan. According to the number of transactions of 4.013 billion yuan, the profit of each order was only 0.22 yuan. According to the interval technical service fee (6% - 8%) of most catering businesses, the order revenue of 20 yuan for the takeout platform is 1.2-1.6 yuan, most of which is used for front-line labor costs, platform maintenance, technical support and other costs. If the commission ratio continues to decrease, in order to maintain its own survival, the takeout platform has no choice but to improve the operation efficiency of the platform, reduce costs and increase efficiency. This is a long-term task, which is not realistic in the short term; Second, share the cost pressure equally. In the interest chain of "merchant platform distribution consumer", the interests of riders and consumers are equal