2021, which has just passed, is a year of crazy "gold absorption" of new coffee species. Its speed of "attacking cities and land" even old coffee giants Starbucks and Nestle have to "shake three times". Statistics show that there were 21 investment cases in the coffee field in 2021, with a total amount of nearly 6 billion yuan, the sum of the previous two years. Search for "coffee" in the third-party enterprise information query software, and there are more than 25000 results for companies established within one year. The offline brand manner received three rounds of financing in the first half of 2021, with a valuation of nearly $20 billion. It is considered to be the brand most likely to surpass Starbucks with a single store valuation of about $12 million. Three and a half tons, m stand, TIMS, nowwa and other brands have also successively obtained 100 million yuan of financing The drama of taking money, opening stores and promoting new products came one after another, and the "war" of coffee was everywhere. What is the origin of the cafe downstairs? Why do entrepreneurs and investors prefer coffee? Is there a bubble in the market? Where is the most difficult part of the coffee business? Is there a corresponding solution at present? Now, how many cups of coffee can the Chinese market "hold" and how many cafes are needed? At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the daily economic news talked with a number of coffee brand heads and investment institutions to resume the "war" of the coffee industry in 2021. Capital fever One day, the brand received nearly 20 investment invitations "It's now. If you don't do it again, it's too late." Cheng Xiaoying, founder of qianxiaohe, a cutting-edge coffee brand, is confident. During the hottest period of coffee investment in 2021, she received invitations from nearly 20 direct investment funds and FA at most in a day. At the end of June 2020, Cheng Xiaoying left Alibaba. Before leaving the company, colleagues held on one after another, trying to persuade them to give up their entrepreneurship because of the bad environment. But Cheng Xiaoying believes that "only the present is the best". She embarked on the road of coffee entrepreneurship. The industrial and commercial registration was completed in June 2020 and put into operation in December of that year. With instant black coffee as the main product, it first made a breakthrough in sales through online e-commerce channels. Two months after the launch, qianxiaohe's orders exceeded 10000 for the first time in early February 2021. In June and September 2021, orders increased significantly, with more than 100000 double 11 users. At present, the repurchase rate is more than 40%. In July 2021, qianxiaohe, who had just been established for one year, announced that it had obtained an angel round financing of several million yuan from mushroom street. In Cheng Xiaoying's view, after the coffee fever in the past year, the whole market is not particularly calm. Not only entrepreneurs cross-border "robbery", but also investors cross-border look at projects. Some investors once said frankly to them that they had not studied the coffee field before, but they must invest in coffee. "What is particularly interesting is that some of the businesses under tmall coffee category were originally engaged in cultural and creative industries, real estate and home furnishings, but now they are all engaged in coffee brands. The hottest time is when several new coffee brands are financed from April to August..." Cheng Xiaoying is also quite surprised that the coffee is so hot. The reporter of the daily economic news found that the investment in the coffee field has also reached a peak in recent three years. The data show that there were 21 investment cases in the coffee field in 2021, with a total amount of 5.921 billion yuan, exceeding the total investment in 2019 and 2020. Search "coffee" in the third-party enterprise information query software, and the company established within one year has more than 25000 results. Behind the unprecedented investment enthusiasm of coffee is China's vast market space. According to AI media consulting data, the market scale of China's coffee industry will be 300 billion yuan in 2020, which is expected to maintain a growth rate of 27.2%. In 2025, the market scale of China's coffee industry will reach 1 trillion yuan, showing a trend of continuous expansion on the whole. However, in terms of penetration rate, the overall penetration rate of coffee in China is still low for the standard overseas mature coffee market. According to Deloitte data, in 2020, the per capita annual coffee consumption in mainland China was 9 cups, which was only 3.21% of the relevant data in Japan, 2.74% of the relevant data in the United States and 2.45% of the relevant data in South Korea. There is much room for improvement. Cheng Xiaoying said: "Chinese consumers are at a stage of 'familiar and unfamiliar' with coffee. Familiarity is that they know that coffee has a refreshing effect, but they have no specific needs and cognition for flavor or culture. They know it is useful, but they don't know enough. So I think it's the best time to do it at this time." Li Yajun, a senior investment manager of Zhongwei capital, was very busy in 2021. She looked at six coffee projects on the market and clearly felt that "Starbucks, as a benchmark, may be so big in China." She believes that from the perspective of the degree of capital intervention and consumer habit education, the time for coffee investment is ripe. "At the capital level, the past year should be regarded as the first year of capital intervention in the coffee industry; at the consumer level, more and more fancy coffee, such as raw coconut latte, are also expanding their consumer boundaries with richer taste." Stefanie, the founding partner of the inward fund, once led the team as the exclusive financial adviser for three and a half rounds of financing and invested in it. Why does the expansion of the coffee industry appear at this time, "From the perspective of capital, the coffee investment boom is the inevitable trend after the tea investment boom and the inevitable move for capital to continuously explore the possibility of offline catering. The intervention of capital has accelerated the innovation of the industry and the rapid improvement of the basic quality of employees, resulting in the rapid expansion of the industry," she said New trends You don't have to sit down and drink coffee In the view of Xu Yingting, vice president of McDonald's China and general manager of McCafe business, China's coffee market has changed very rapidly in the past three or four years. "It has changed not only in products, but also in the whole scene and usage habits. Now maybe we just need coffee." In 1990, McDonald's brought fresh boiled coffee into the Chinese market with McDonald's restaurants; In 2009, Mai coffee officially opened in China. According to Xu Yingting's memory, at that time, Chinese consumers made instant coffee at home, "it was very difficult to find a coffee shop at that time. There were only one or two large brands and not many chain stores." But later, consumers began to go into coffee shops to consume, and their requirements for the environment for drinking coffee became higher. They hoped to have a good atmosphere and space and be able to sit down and chat. Nowadays, fast fetching and takeout have become important scenes in coffee consumption. Source: Daily Economic News In November 2020, maccoffee announced that it would invest 2.5 billion yuan in three years to accelerate the layout of the coffee market in mainland China. Turning to the opportunity behind this decision, Xu Yingting admitted: "I see a great change, that is, coffee doesn't have to sit down and drink." In the past few years, coffee has been consumed more by taking out or taking out. Therefore, maccoffee with its own "fast food" gene began to work. Relying on McDonald's offline mother store and its employees, it set up a "manual coffee bar" in the original McDonald's store. The "store in store" model not only reduced the rental cost and the cost of recruiting and cultivating new people, but also brought its own passenger flow. Coffee consumption under the "fast scene" has also bred new coffee species that are different from Starbucks in providing social and business meeting space. The pick and go shops represented by Ruixing, manner and nowwa, and the online instant coffee brands represented by three and a half tons and yongpu meet the portable needs of coffee consumption. Chen Huilin, vice president of Qingtong capital investment, believes that offline formats can be divided into three types, namely "third space" large stores, pick-up and go small stores, and convenience store coffee models. So which model is more profitable and sustainable? What kind of play do capital prefer? Stefanie said: "online and offline are complementary. On the basis of good products, online provides users with cost performance and convenience of use, while offline provides users with scene extension and added value. Large stores and small stores are also complementary. Large stores are conducive to brand potential and small stores are conducive to company efficiency." "Before talking about the model, we should first look at the market demand. From the current time node, small stores are more suitable for the high-density points of white-collar workers in the first and second tier cities, and there are enough cups to support sales. While the third and fourth tier cities still need medium and large stores to make the brand image and prolong the residence time of consumers, so as to increase the customer orders. The brand in the future must be Various store types are needed to form a matrix layout of large and small stores. " She said. Li Yajun also believes that "one model can not be used to hit the whole country": "I personally prefer the small store model in first tier cities and the 'third space' model in sunken cities. Because their customer groups are different, their demands are also different. White collar workers in first tier cities are more linked to coffee and office scenes, while sunken cities (mostly) think coffee is afternoon tea representing elegant taste." In Xu Yingting's opinion, the answer is: we need a set of combination boxing. "Every coffee brand will cut the scene very carefully. No coffee brand will tell you that I only make takeout or offline experience. If the brand wants to succeed, I think it is because it can accurately meet the needs of consumers in different scenes." Grab lots There are so many points suitable for opening stores in every place Each coffee brand has its own similarities and differences and secretly competes. But what is visible to the naked eye is that the coffee shops downstairs of white-collar workers are opening more and more. According to the white paper on China's freshly ground coffee industry released by Deloitte, by the end of 2020, there were 108000 cafes in China, and 75% of them were located in second tier and above cities. According to the future expansion plans of leading brands such as Starbucks and the comprehensive impact of the epidemic and other changes in the competition pattern, the growth rate of the number of cafes in China will be relatively flat in the future. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 5% in the next three years, reaching 123000 by 2023, and the growth rate of all line cities is relatively average. Compared with the more conservative growth forecast of third-party institutions, the store opening goals shouted by major brands show greater "ambition". Tims coffee has entered the Chinese market since February 2019. By the end of 2021, it has opened more than 390 stores and shouted the slogan of "opening at least 2750 profitable stores by the end of 2026". Source: Daily Economic News Nowwa has opened more than 1500 stores in more than 20 cities across the country. The goal at this stage is to "land hundreds of stores in new first tier cities". The relevant person in charge of nowwa told the reporter of daily economic news: "Nowwa stores have a very diverse location, and they are small and small shops, mainly with the belt. The store and management cost is low. Ultimately, the cost of coffee shopping is reduced. Stores are covered by different shopping malls, office buildings and universities, and the characteristics of landmark stores such as Xintiandi, and beyond the restrictions of space and place, and into city life. Give cities and users more connections. For popular business districts, nowwa will also customize the online red style separately. " Manner plans to open 1000 by the end of 2023. For manner, which has the highest valuation at present, there are even rumors in the coffee circle that if a manner is opened opposite Starbucks, the passenger flow of Starbucks will drop by 30%, and other competitors will be terrified of manner's emergence. There was coffee love on social platforms