The national carbon market will be expanded and upgraded by 100 billion, and the scale can be expected

2022-01-26

As an important policy tool to promote the realization of China's carbon peak and carbon neutralization goals, the national carbon emission trading market (hereinafter referred to as the "national carbon market") is expected to achieve capacity expansion and upgrading and a new round of scale growth. Judging from the current progress, the two industries of building materials and nonferrous metals may become the second batch of industries included in the national carbon market, while the preparation work related to the petrochemical and chemical industries is also accelerating, and about 2300 petrochemical and chemical enterprises meet the inclusion conditions. The industry expects that according to the current carbon price level, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market is expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2030. According to the data of the Ministry of ecology and environment, 2162 key emission units in the power generation industry were included in the first performance cycle of the national carbon market, covering an annual greenhouse gas emission of about 4.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. "On the whole, the basic framework of the national carbon market has been preliminarily established, the role of the price discovery mechanism has initially appeared, the awareness and ability of enterprises to reduce emissions have been effectively improved, and the role of promoting enterprises to reduce greenhouse gases and accelerate green and low-carbon transformation has initially appeared." Liu Youbin, spokesman of the Ministry of ecology and environment, said that in the next step, the Ministry of ecology and environment will revise and improve relevant laws, regulations and technical specifications, earnestly pay attention to the construction of the national carbon market and promote high-quality economic development. A few days ago, the review and Prospect of China's carbon market (2022) released by the energy and environmental policy research center of Beijing University of technology pointed out that according to the current trading volume, the trading turnover rate of the national carbon emission trading market is about 3%. Compared with the EU carbon market, China's national carbon market is still in the early stage of development, and there is still much room to improve the market activity. In order to enhance market activity, it is urgent to further expand the scope of industry coverage and trading subjects. "In 2022, the national carbon market is expected to realize the expansion of trading entities and a new round of scale growth." Sun Chuanwang, Professor of China energy economy research center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with the reporter of economic reference daily that iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and petrochemical are key industries of carbon emission. At present, these industries have a good foundation and preliminary preparations for entering the carbon market, and are expected to be incorporated into the national carbon market soon. It is understood that in 2021, the Ministry of ecological environment has entrusted China Building Materials Federation, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Iron and steel industry association to carry out the work related to the participation of building materials, nonferrous metals and iron and steel industries in carbon emission trading. Relevant preparations for the petroleum and chemical industry are also accelerating. Li Yongliang, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "Petrochemical Federation"), told the reporter of the economic information daily that according to the standards set by the Ministry of ecological environment, at present, about 2300 petrochemical and chemical enterprises meet the conditions for being included in the national carbon market. It is revealed that, entrusted by relevant departments, the petrochemical Federation is carrying out research on the carbon quota allocation scheme for the petrochemical and chemical industry and the operation test scheme of the national carbon market. According to the review and Prospect of China's carbon market (2022), seven other key energy consumption industries (petrochemical, chemical, building materials, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, papermaking and aviation) will be gradually included in the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is estimated that after completing the coverage of the eight industries, the total quota of the national carbon market may be expanded from the current 4.5 billion tons to 7 billion tons, covering about 60% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions. According to the current carbon price level, the cumulative trading volume is expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2030 when the carbon peak is reached. While covering the expansion and upgrading of industries, in the future, the national carbon market will also increase market participants, enrich trading products, improve systems and rules, and strengthen the synergy with other pollution and carbon reduction policies and measures. According to the review and Prospect of China's carbon market (2022), institutional investors will be given priority in the national carbon market from 2022 to 2023, and then individual investors will be gradually introduced. At the same time, the current national carbon market is mainly spot trading. It is expected that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, more market-oriented and financial products will be launched, and derivatives of carbon emission trading such as option futures will be added. Secondly, it is expected that the process of levying carbon tax will be accelerated to help achieve the dual carbon goal in coordination with the national carbon market. In addition, the system and rules of the national carbon market will be further improved, and the total carbon quota will be set moderately tight. Wang Ke, a professor at Beijing University of technology, believes that the diversification of carbon trading products can effectively avoid the risk of trading price fluctuation, increase the activity of carbon emission trading market and meet the needs of different participants, but at the same time, we need to pay attention to market risk management. Sun Chuanwang suggested that at present, the national carbon market is still in its infancy, and construction work needs to be carried out in many aspects in the future. First, improve the MRV (carbon emission monitoring, reporting and verification) system, improve the consistency, accuracy and transparency of the whole process of carbon accounting, and consolidate the foundation of carbon trading; Secondly, explore the linkage mode between carbon market and power market, and strengthen the policy coordination and mechanism complementarity of carbon and power market; In addition, guide enterprises to strengthen the capacity-building of Carbon Asset Management, establish and improve enterprise carbon accounts, and improve the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in carbon trading. (outlook new era)

Edit:Ming Wu    Responsible editor:Haoxuan Qi

Source:jjckb.cn

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