Recently, oppo, Huawei and glory released folding screen mobile phones one after another. On January 22, a reporter from China Securities Journal visited a number of offline channels in Shenzhen and found that folding screen mobile phones are still "hard to find". Industry insiders believe that at present, the supply chain involves many new materials, the yield is low, the production capacity is still insufficient, and the manufacturers do not have enough goods, resulting in "one product is hard to find" for folding screen mobile phones. Head manufacturers scrambled to release new products, the price was lowered, and the demand for folding screen mobile phones began to increase. Many institutions predict that the shipment volume of folding screen mobile phones will exceed 15 million in 2022, doubling year-on-year. The new track attracts manufacturers to enter. At present, domestic supply chain enterprises such as screen, hinge and UTG glass protective cover plate are already laying out. As the supply chain matures and the cost decreases, the selling price of folding screen mobile phones will decline and the market penetration will gradually increase. Insufficient capacity in the initial stage On January 22, when the reporter visited a glory channel in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, the staff in the store said that there were no glory folding screen mobile phones in stock in the store, so they needed to transfer goods from other stores, but the price needed to be increased. In an oppo authorized experience store in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, the reporter learned that oppo find n folding screen mobile phones are also out of stock. The price of this mobile phone starts from 7699 yuan, which ignites the market. On January 10, oppo said that the number of online reservations of oppo find n flagship mobile phones exceeded 1 million. On January 18, Zhao Ming, CEO of glory, said: "the popularity of the first selling folding flagship glory Magic V has exceeded our expectations, and it is difficult to find one machine in all channels. We are working overtime to arrange production, and start reservation pre-sale. We will deliver goods as soon as possible according to the queuing order." Samsung and Huawei are leading manufacturers in the folding screen mobile phone market. Samsung's market strategy is quite radical. In August 2021, Samsung released Galaxy zflip3, with the price dropping to 7599 yuan per unit, driving the global shipments of folding screen mobile phones. DSCC, a research institution, reported that in the third quarter of 2021, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones reached 2.6 million, with a month on month increase of 215% and a year-on-year increase of 480%. Samsung accounted for 93% of the shipments of folding screen mobile phones, and Huawei ranked second, accounting for 6%. In December 2021, Huawei's P50 treasure box was sold from 8988 yuan, which is also Huawei's first folding screen mobile phone with a price of less than 10000 yuan. Industry insiders believe that although the price of folding screen mobile phones has dropped from 10000-20000 yuan to less than 10000 yuan, brands are afraid to stock too much because the price is still expensive and the products are oriented to the niche market. In addition, because many new materials are involved in the supply chain, the yield is low and the production capacity is still insufficient. An executive of a mobile phone industry chain company told the China Securities Journal that the folding screen mobile phone is the "Pearl" of the mobile phone market. Due to its high pricing, its user group is mainly business people and "enthusiasts" of electronic products. The selling price of oppo folding screen mobile phones exceeded users' psychological expectations, and the user base began to expand. The relevant person in charge of panel manufacturer vicino told the reporter of China Securities Journal that the folding screen can perfectly combine "small body and large display" and adapt to application scenarios such as office and entertainment. At present, global mobile phone manufacturers have strong demand for flexible folding screens. At the same time, many key components of folding screen mobile phones have become more and more mature in recent years, such as flexible screen, hinge, flexible cover plate and content adaptation. Folding screen mobile phones are recognized by consumers, and the demand is rising rapidly. For the mismatch between market supply and demand, the relevant person in charge of vicino said that at present, the folding screen mobile phone market is in its infancy and has just shown a comprehensive flowering state among the head mobile phone manufacturers. As the price of folding screen mobile phones is positioned as the high-end brand, the supply is relatively small, and it is generally "difficult to find one machine". Panel factories also have limited overall shipments of folding screens, and are actively reducing costs and improving product quality to cope with the coming larger market space. Leading Apple has room for price reduction Zhao Ming believes that the folding screen mobile phone in 2022 is a good opportunity for domestic android manufacturers to enter the high-end computer market, and the market scale will expand rapidly. Folding screen mobile phone is no longer a water test product. It can be used as the main flagship mobile phone. In the future, straight mobile phones and folding screen mobile phones will develop in parallel. Cinno research predicts that the global sales volume of folding screen mobile phones is expected to reach 15.69 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 107%. Southwest Securities predicts that the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones will reach 18 million to 20 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%, and the penetration rate will rise to 1.83% from 0.18% in 2021. Zhao Ming believes that mobile phone manufacturers should be able to create folding screen products that fully meet the use needs of consumers in the closed and expanded state of products. Many suppliers said that for folding screen mobile phones, they should work with glory to make the industrial chain better and bigger. Industry insiders predict that vivo will also launch folding screen mobile phones in 2022. As a leader in the consumer electronics industry, Apple has not yet launched folding screen mobile phones. An apple industrial chain company once told the China Securities Journal that Apple's current strategy is to be stable and will not be released until the folding screen mobile phone enters the "walking volume" stage. According to the prediction of Guo Mingyu, an analyst at Tianfeng international, Apple may launch the folding screen iPhone in 2023. It is predicted that the shipment of folding screen iPhone in 2023 will be 15-20 million. According to the analysis of CSC, there are still some deficiencies in folding screen mobile phones that need to be improved, such as creases, high weight, high price and cost. The relevant person in charge of vicino said that at present, the folding screen mobile phone is still a "early taste" high-end machine, and the price is slightly higher. Although the price of folding screen mobile phones has decreased rapidly in the past two years, there is still room for further decline. For screen manufacturers, flexible AMOLED manufacturers mainly reduce product prices by improving product yield and reducing the raw material cost of display screen. At present, the yield of mature flexible display products has reached a considerable data. In the future, with the coordinated cost reduction of the industrial chain, the increased application of terminal products and the more release of panel capacity, the yield of folding screen still has room to continue to improve, and the product price will further decline. Liu zuohu, chief product officer of oppo, said: "after the supply chain and industrial chain are mature, the folding screen mobile phone market will soon change. Maybe in less than two years, the price of folding screen mobile phones will be the same as that of current flagship phones, selling for 5000 or 6000 yuan each. We should think about whether there are more innovative experiences." CITIC Securities said that it is optimistic about the cost reduction brought by the improvement of the technical maturity of the folding screen mobile phone market. It is expected that the flip type will dominate in the future, and the mainstream price band will be reduced to 5000-8000 yuan per unit. In the future, with the downward movement of the price center, the folding screen mobile phone market is expected to grow rapidly. It is expected that the global shipment will exceed 65 million units in 2025. The short-term market is still dominated by Samsung and is expected to occupy 60% - 65% in 2022. Arrange the cake in advance The folding screen new track market is popular, and the industrial chain company will also benefit. Chen Weida, board secretary of Changxin technology, told China Securities Journal that the large volume of folding screen mobile phones may be more beneficial to a few companies, that is, companies that can provide incremental components. CSC believes that the key technical points and value increment of the folding screen mobile phone industry chain are mainly flexible OLED, UTG glass protective cover plate, hinge and rotating shaft. From the perspective of flexible OLED, it is mainly supplied by panel manufacturers such as Samsung, BOE, TCL technology and vicino. According to the relevant person in charge of vicino, as domestic mobile phone companies continue to strengthen the layout of folding screen mobile phones and the huge domestic consumer demand, more folding screen mobile phones will be listed in the next two years, and vicino will also have more market share, which is expected to lead the supply of folding screens in China. From the perspective of UTG glass protective cover plate, Samsung led the market trend after launching UTG glass protective cover plate folding screen mobile phone in 2020. Brokerage analysis said that previously, most folding screen mobile phones used CPI (colorless transparent polyimide film) cover plates with better bending performance and cost. In the future, UTG (ultra-thin glass) protective cover plate will gradually replace CPI and become the mainstream material of folding screen cover plate. Samsung is currently the main supplier, and oppo find n adopts Samsung UTG glass protective cover plate scheme. A person from the industry chain told the China Securities Journal: "the folding screen mobile phones to be launched by Xiaomi and vivo may also use Samsung UTG glass protective cover." A few industry companies in A-share industry are laying out UTG glass protective cover plate. The reporter learned that Changxin technology is currently one of the leading companies in UTG glass protective cover plate technology reserve. Chen Weida told China Securities Journal: "UTG has better visual and sensory effect than CPI scheme, which is relatively less likely to scratch and crease, but the cost is higher. The company has developed a variety of components suitable for UTG, including UTG glass protective cover plate. At present, it has cooperated with customers to conduct prototype test, which has been recognized by end customers and received a definite order. The customer said that the folding screen mobile phone equipped with UTG glass protective cover plate is on the market The speed will increase. As long as customers need, we can mass produce at any time. " Hinge is the key technology of folding screen mobile phone, but it is difficult to make. Liu zuohu said that the key of hinge is not manufacturing, but design. The design depends on the mobile phone manufacturer's own skills, and oppo spent four years iterating the hinge. Securities companies predict that by 2023, the market scale of folding screen mobile phone hinge is expected to reach more than 6 billion yuan. This also allows some manufacturers to carry out market layout. Wang Tao, representative of Jingyan technology certification, told China Securities Journal that on folding screen mobile phones, the company has successively supplied MIM parts in hinges to Samsung and one of the top three international consumer electronics brands since 2019. In 2020, the company began to cooperate with customers in the R & D of the whole hinge, which is currently in the sample stage. The folding screen mobile phone market is expanding, bringing new business growth points to the company. However, the hinge space range is small, the number of parts is up to hundreds, and the design is difficult. In the folding screen mobile phone market, Samsung and Huawei are first mover brands. Other brands should enter the market and avoid the patents of first mover brands. (Xinhua News Agency)