Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in December 2021. In December, the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued the downward trend since the fourth quarter, and the year-on-year increase fell. Specifically, new commercial housing in first tier cities decreased slightly month on month, and second-hand housing prices rose month on month. It is estimated that in December, the sales price of new commercial houses in first tier cities fell by 0.1% month on month. Among them, Beijing was flat month on month, Shanghai rose 0.4%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. In terms of second-hand housing, the first tier cities increased by 0.1% month on month from a decrease of 0.2% last month. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.8% and 0.4% month on month respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Second and third tier cities are still declining month on month. It is estimated that the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in second tier cities decreased by 0.3% month on month, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the previous month. The sales price of new commercial housing in the third tier cities decreased by 0.3% month on month, the same as that in the previous month; The sales price of second-hand houses decreased by 0.5% month on month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. Year on year, the year-on-year increase in the sales price of new commercial housing fell. It is estimated that in December, new commercial housing in first tier cities increased by 4.4% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. 2、 New commercial housing in third tier cities increased by 2.8% and 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of second-hand housing, the sales price of second-hand housing in first and second tier cities increased by 5.3% and 1.5% year-on-year, both down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The sales price of second-hand houses in third tier cities was flat from a year-on-year increase of 0.5% last month. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that the average month on month decline of house prices in 70 cities narrowed in December, the first time since the current round of market downturn. Specifically, among the 70 cities in December, the number of cities with month on month decline in new house prices decreased by 9 compared with the previous month, and the month on month decline in second-hand house prices in about 50% of the cities narrowed or stopped compared with the previous month. "The market can narrow the decline after several months of decline, indicating the resilience of China's real estate market demand." Xu Xiaole said that it was mainly the marginal improvement of the financial and credit environment in the fourth quarter of 2021, which promoted the bottom of the market trading volume, and the market expectation was improved to alleviate the pressure of falling house prices. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, since October 2021, the trading volume of second-hand houses in shell 50 cities has rebounded month on month for three consecutive months, and the prosperity index of second-hand houses representing market expectations also stopped declining in December. 58 Zhang Bo, President of the branch of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that there have been obvious signs of bottom recovery in first tier cities. In terms of second tier cities, the market has differentiated, and some cities are beginning to approach the bottom of the market, but Taiyuan, Harbin, Zhengzhou, Xining and other cities are still in the cooling channel. It is expected that the market differentiation of second tier cities will continue in the first quarter of 2022. Xu Xiaole predicts that the real estate market and house prices will be stable in 2022. Under the guidance of supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies, it is expected that the bank credit support will be maintained at the beginning of the year and the lending cycle will be accelerated, which will further promote the improvement of market transactions and drive the overall price to gradually stop falling and stabilize. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that the credit policy began to gradually release positive effects in the third quarter, and the continuous pessimistic trend was slightly curbed. It is expected that it will continue to decline slightly in the first quarter of 2022, but it is possible to change from negative to positive in the second quarter. For the second-hand housing market, he believes that the performance of big cities and small cities will be different. The potential demand for house purchase in big cities is large, and it is relatively easy for the second-hand housing market to recover. The potential demand for house purchase in small cities is small, and the recovery of second-hand housing will lag for a long time. (outlook new era)