Solving the problem of entity financing is still an important focus of credit policy in 2022. At the beginning of the new year, the continuous conversion of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan was officially implemented. The cbcirc also said that it would continue to guide the financial system to transfer profits to the real economy. Meanwhile, scientific and technological innovation and green development are still the key areas of credit support. It is expected that with the support of carbon emission reduction tools, the scale of green credit will reach trillion yuan in 2022. Insiders said that the overall characteristics of credit supply in 2022 will be a moderate expansion of the total amount, a steady decline in prices and an accurate supply structure. Increased support in key areas Finance is the core of economy and the blood of real economy. On the first day of 2022, the people's Bank of China will send a "gift bag" to small and micro enterprises. The official website of the people's Bank of China announced that from January 1, 2022, the two direct tools of Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan will be implemented. Continue to promote the increment, price reduction and expansion of inclusive small and micro loans. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the people's Bank of China, said that from 2022 to the end of June 2023, the people's Bank of China will provide funds at 1% of the balance increment for inclusive small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households granted by local corporate banks to encourage the increase of inclusive small and micro loans. From 2022, the Pratt & Whitney small and micro credit loan support plan will be incorporated into the small re loan for supporting agriculture. The 400 billion yuan re loan line originally used to support Pratt & Whitney small and micro credit loan can be used on a rolling basis, and the re loan line can be further increased if necessary. In addition, the cbcirc also said that it would strengthen financial support for "specialized and special new" enterprises, promote financing increment, expansion and price reduction of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, optimize financial services for the private economy, and continue to guide the financial system to transfer profits to the real economy. In addition to supporting the continuous increase of funds for small and micro enterprises, in the next step, financial support for key socio-economic fields, including scientific and technological innovation and green development, will also be further strengthened. The supporting tools for carbon emission reduction in 2022 are expected to be fully developed. Wang Yifeng, chief financial analyst of Everbright Securities, said that the investment of green loans will maintain a high increase. It is preliminarily estimated that the carbon emission reduction support tools may release more than 500 billion yuan from 2021 to 2022, so as to leverage the growth of green loans by 800 billion-100 billion yuan. Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, also believes that the green credit increment directly leveraging by carbon emission reduction support tools is expected to reach trillion. In addition, in terms of supporting scientific and technological innovation, Wang Qing said that in 2022, the central bank may launch special policy support tools and guide commercial banks to increase credit support for long-term investment in high-end manufacturing. Wang Xin, director of the Research Bureau of the people's Bank of China, said that in the next step, the financial sector will be more proactive, improve the top-level design, guide and leverage more funds to enter the field of carbon emission reduction, and promote the all-round green and low-carbon transformation of energy structure, industrial structure, production and lifestyle. Wen bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that in 2022, credit will increase support for key areas and weak links, and monetary policy will comprehensively use a variety of policy tools to increase financing support for the real economy, especially in the fields of small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, At the same time, structural and direct monetary policy tools such as refinancing will play an important role in supporting the real economy. The total amount of credit is expected to grow steadily While increasing support for the real economy, the central bank reiterated that it would "enhance the stability of the growth of total credit" and continue to "maintain a basic match between the growth of money supply and social financing scale and economic growth." Therefore, it is generally believed in the industry that the total amount of credit is expected to continue to increase in 2022. Wang Qing judged that the total amount of bank credit in 2022 is expected to reach 22 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8 trillion yuan over 2021, and the multi growth trend will be accelerated. Considering the central economic work conference's deployment of "appropriate policy development", it is expected that the credit supply in the first half of 2022 will be higher than that in the second half of 2022. "The increase in credit supply will play an important role in hedging the downward pressure on the economy in the first half of the year, especially in the first quarter. At the same time, it will release the signal of wide credit overweight and continuous force of macro policies in the direction of stable growth, which will help stabilize the consumption and investment confidence of the market." Wang Qing pointed out. Ren Tao, a distinguished researcher of the national finance and development laboratory, said that, on the one hand, under the policy guidance of "three stabilities" and "Three Guarantees", the lending speed of mortgage loans may be improved in 2022. On the other hand, under the background of appropriate advance infrastructure construction and financial development, matching the financing demand of infrastructure projects will drive the rapid growth of credit. Therefore, the total credit supply in the whole year is expected to be higher than that in 2021, which is expected to be about 22 trillion yuan. It is worth noting that under the background that the total amount of credit in the whole year is expected to rise steadily, the credit supply in the first quarter of this year may usher in a "good start". Ming Ming, deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute, believes that the credit supply will be significantly boosted at the beginning of the year, and the overall structure will be improved compared with that before. The loan in January 2022 may exceed 3.58 trillion yuan in the same period in 2021. Considering the pace of credit supply by commercial banks, it is expected that the new loans in the first quarter will exceed 8.5 trillion yuan, while the RMB loans in the first quarter of last year increased by 7.67 trillion yuan. Wang Qing also believes that the "good start" of credit at the beginning of this year will be more obvious. It is expected that the credit supply in January is expected to reach about 4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 400 billion yuan over the same period last year. Real estate loans will be stable Under the tone of "real estate is not fried", many financial departments have also released signals to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises. Analysts believe that the decline in the overall growth rate of real estate loans will ease in 2022. On January 4, the Shanghai headquarters of the people's Bank of China held a 2022 monetary and credit work conference, which clearly proposed to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation" and strengthen expectation guidance. Commercial banks should further optimize the credit structure, improve their ability to serve the real economy, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. Zhou Maohua, financial market analyst of Everbright Bank, believes that the policy in 2022 will focus on effectively protecting the demand for just needed and improved housing and meeting the reasonable financing demand of real estate enterprises. It is expected that the credit demand of individual housing and real estate enterprises will gradually return to normal in 2022. Focusing on "housing without speculation", all localities will implement the "three stability" task of the real estate market and promote the construction of long-term mechanism of real estate, Meet domestic diversified housing needs. Wang Yifeng believes that in the next stage, the real estate policy orientation will transition from stable financing cash flow to stable sales. The resumption of sales is of great significance to maintain the normal operation of real estate enterprises. Mortgage loans may "increase in volume and decrease in price"; In terms of development loans, with the increase of steady growth, the market risk appetite will pick up. Ren Tao analyzed that in terms of housing related loans, the two areas will receive key support in 2022. On the one hand, in order to support the commercial housing market and better meet the first suite and improved housing needs of buyers, it is expected that the speed of bank mortgage lending will be accelerated and personal housing loans will continue to show a recovery trend. On the other hand, in order to help clear the market risks and resolve the crisis faced by some real estate projects, commercial banks will take the initiative to increase the investment of M & A loans to high-quality real estate enterprises. (outlook new era)