The central economic work conference held a few days ago required that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. How can macro policies be more stable and effective? Sheng Songcheng, Professor of Shanghai University of Finance and economics and former director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, said in an interview with the reporter of economic reference daily that while doing a good job in cross cyclical regulation, China should seize the current favorable opportunity to strengthen the counter cyclical regulation of macroeconomic policies. The implementation of the proactive fiscal policy should be accelerated, and the prudent monetary policy should be stable and loose. The central economic work conference pointed out that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined. "Now is still a good time to strengthen counter cyclical regulation." Sheng Songcheng stressed. He said that from a domestic perspective, fiscal policy has greater room for development. The issuance of local government special bonds began to accelerate in August 2021, and the amount of new special bonds in 2022 has been issued 1.46 trillion yuan in advance, providing conditions for all regions and departments to shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy. With the gradual implementation of measures such as energy supply guarantee, prices will also tend to be stable and will not become a constraint of marginal easing of policy. From abroad, the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates, which also leaves a window for China's counter cyclical regulation of monetary policy. He said that unlike in the past, the high inflation in the United States was mainly due to the supply shortage caused by the impact of the epidemic. "Under the repeated epidemic, the supply chain impact may not be solved simply by tightening money, and raising interest rates may also increase investment costs and further curb supply. Therefore, although the Fed has accelerated the reduction of bond purchase, it may not raise interest rates in advance as expected by the market. At the recent fed interest rate meeting, Fed chairman Powell also said that it is shrinking When the debt reduction is still in progress, it is inappropriate to raise interest rates. " Sheng Songcheng said that such an external environment provides a favorable opportunity for China's counter cyclical regulation of monetary policy. He also added that from historical experience, in the last round of RRR and interest rate reduction cycle, the monetary easing of China's central bank was basically staggered with the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve: the Federal Reserve began to reduce bond purchase in January 2014, ended bond purchase in October 2014, and started the interest rate increase cycle in December 2015; From November 22, 2014 to March 1, 2016, the people's Bank of China cut interest rates six times and cut reserve requirements five times. Most of the operations were in the gap period before the United States ended bond purchase and began to raise interest rates, which to some extent avoided the dislocation of monetary policies between China and the United States and exacerbated the pressure of capital outflow. "At present, foreign capital has a strong preference for the Chinese market, there are more capital inflows into China, the interest rate gap at home and abroad is still large, and the RMB exchange rate is strong." He said. Sheng Songcheng suggested that a more relaxed macro policy should be implemented as soon as possible. To continue to do a good job in the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", we also need to make appropriate efforts in macro policies, cooperate with micro policies, and stimulate the vitality of market players. In particular, he pointed out that 2022 may be China's "infrastructure year", and the improvement of infrastructure investment growth also needs further efforts of macro policies. "As the recovery of consumption and service industry will take time, real estate investment will maintain a tight balance and foreign trade expectations will weaken, infrastructure investment has become an important starting point for steady growth. Infrastructure investment should be in line with the general direction of China's economic transformation and development, such as 5g base stations, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence and big data centers, new energy vehicle charging piles, etc., but the proportion of new infrastructure is still small. Only by combining new infrastructure with traditional infrastructure can we stabilize the economic fundamentals. " He said. Sheng Songcheng pointed out that we should take multiple measures to deal with the short-term economic downward pressure. Without short-term economic stability and development, long-term structural reform will be impossible. Some people believe that we should "tighten monetary policy to prevent risks", that is, we advocate tightening monetary policy to prevent the two key risks of real estate and local government debt. "This view is biased. Risk prevention should be achieved through macro Prudential management rather than tight monetary policy. China's macro policy should strengthen support for the real economy and handle the relationship between steady growth, structural adjustment and risk prevention. Development is still the last word." Sheng Songcheng said. (outlook new era)