Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute: strengthening the coordination and linkage between fiscal policy and monetary policy

2021-12-29

The central economic work conference held recently stressed that "we should continue to implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy" and "fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked". Looking forward to 2022, how will fiscal and monetary policies work? How to coordinate the linkage and make a good policy combination? The reporter of Economic Information Daily recently interviewed Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute. Lian Ping believes that the focus of active fiscal policy in 2022 is expected to advance to the first half of the year. Ensuring the main body of the market, income and employment will be the main foothold of cross cycle regulation of active fiscal policy. Specifically, expenditures related to people's livelihood such as education, social security and employment, medical and health care are expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate, and will increase support for major projects such as water conservancy and urban pipe network construction, safeguard the vital interests of the people and solidly promote common prosperity. The new local government special bonds will increase slightly to about 4 trillion yuan, moderately advance infrastructure investment, pay attention to "early, accurate and fast", and improve the "pull, lead and pry" effect of special bonds on investment. The new large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction policy is expected to be introduced next year to help enterprises reduce production and operation costs to a greater extent. In terms of monetary policy, Lian Ping believes that under the circumstances of increasing downward pressure on the economy, still existing inflation expectations and continuously increasing interest rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve, a sound monetary policy has a variety of needs such as stabilizing growth, maintaining employment, stabilizing prices, promoting balance and preventing risks, and stabilizing growth will be the first task. In Lian Ping's view, the monetary policy will remain stable on the whole, focus on me, take stability as the head, enhance foresight and accuracy, and keep the money supply and social financing scale basically matching the broad GDP growth rate. In the first half of the year, the reserve requirement may still be reduced slightly once or twice to release long-term liquidity, promote credit expansion, support the real economy and improve the financing environment. We will actively give play to the directional support function of structural monetary policy, continue to make use of support tools for agriculture, small loans and rediscount, and carbon emission reduction, and increase support for weak links and key areas such as agriculture, rural areas and farmers, small and micro enterprises, private enterprises, advanced manufacturing, and carbon emission reduction. We will promote market-oriented interest rate reform, unblock policy transmission channels, and continue to release LPR reform dividends. There is still some downside space for LPR. Grasp the balance between steady growth and risk prevention, consolidate the responsibilities of all parties, and promote the smooth operation of the bond market. "In 2022, the downward pressure on China's economy is great, and the price expectation may gradually tend to be stable. According to the internal mechanism of macro policy, it is more appropriate for active fiscal policy to cooperate with prudent monetary policy." Lian Ping said. The proactive fiscal policy will maintain the necessary expenditure intensity, moderately move forward, reduce taxes and fees, so as to stimulate production, investment and consumption and stimulate effective market demand. The prudent monetary policy focuses on maintaining price stability and the stable operation of the financial market. At the same time, through partial loose operations such as lowering the reserve requirement, landing structural instruments and promoting the downward trend of LPR, on the one hand, it releases medium and long-term liquidity, reduces the cost of bank bond purchase, improves its ability to purchase government bonds and supports government bond financing, Improve the policy effect of active fiscal policy on stimulating infrastructure investment and residents' consumption; On the other hand, it will increase the money supply and reduce the market interest rate, so as to meet the demand of the reduction of financing cost while the active fiscal policy expands the financing demand of the real economy. Lian Ping pointed out that fiscal and monetary policies need to appropriately increase countercyclical and cross cyclical regulation. The central bank can promote credit expansion and support fiscal policy by innovating the structural application of refinancing tools, adjusting corresponding policies, promoting the restorative growth of off balance sheet business of banks, unblocking direct financing channels for enterprises, and continuously promoting financial opening. Fiscal policy needs to pay attention to the debt risk of local governments, define the government enterprise boundary of implicit debt, reduce the excessive intervention of local governments in the financial market, maintain the smooth operation of the bond market and even the financial market, and prevent and resolve systemic financial risks. Active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy should also deal with the relationship between medium - and long-term development and short-term stable growth, so as to avoid the phenomenon of short-term excessive force affecting medium - and long-term development goals. (outlook new era)

Edit:Ming Wu    Responsible editor:Haoxuan Qi

Source:jjckb.cn

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