In November, manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range. Experts believe that China's economy has returned to a comprehensive recovery trend

2021-12-01

Data show that in November, the manufacturing purchasing manager index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the three indexes are located in the expansion range, indicating that China's economic prosperity has rebounded on the whole. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, believes that the manufacturing PMI index rebounded significantly in November and returned to above the boom and bust line, indicating that China's economy began to return to a comprehensive recovery. "A series of policies and measures recently introduced to strengthen energy supply guarantee and stabilize market prices have achieved remarkable results. In November, the shortage of power supply has eased, the prices of some raw materials have dropped significantly, and the manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion range, indicating that the manufacturing production and operation activities have accelerated and the prosperity level has improved," Zhao Qinghe said. In November, both supply and demand of the manufacturing industry rebounded. Recently, the power supply capacity has continued to improve, the manufacturing capacity has accelerated the release, and the production index has increased by 3.6 percentage points to 52.0% over the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The new order index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the demand side of the manufacturing industry has improved over the previous month. "The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has driven the price growth of energy and basic raw materials down significantly, and the cost pressure of raw materials has slowed down," said Wen Tao, an expert from China Logistics Information Center. The two price indexes of chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing and other industries fell significantly below the critical point, indicating that the purchase price and product sales price of some basic raw material production industries fell significantly. Affected by the continuous recovery of the world economy and the approaching foreign consumption season, the foreign trade boom continued to improve last month, and the import and export index continued to rise. The new export order index and import index were 48.5% and 48.1% respectively, up 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. In November, the non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the critical point. "The business activity index has been stable at more than 52% for two consecutive months and the new order index has been stable at about 49% for three consecutive months, indicating that the current operation of non manufacturing industry is relatively stable," said Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and procurement. Wu Wei, an expert from China Logistics Information Center, believes that the multi-point spread of the epidemic has an impact on the contact service industry and has become a major factor hindering the growth of non manufacturing industry. According to the data, the business activity index of the service industry in November was 51.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall recovery of the service industry slowed down. In November, the business activity index and new order index of the construction industry were 59.1% and 54.2% respectively, an increase of 2.2 and 1.9 percentage points over the previous month. Zhao Qinghe analyzed that the business activity index and new order index of civil engineering construction industry were 60.5% and 56.5% respectively, an increase of 5.4 and 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that with the gradual implementation of some major projects planned in the 14th five year plan, the progress of infrastructure construction has been accelerated. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that global demand is expected to maintain a recovery trend, the effect of rescue policies will continue to be released, the manufacturing industry remains profitable, the capacity utilization remains high, and the input cost of raw materials and other short-term factors have eased, which are positive factors for the development of the manufacturing industry. From the perspective of challenges, the global epidemic has not been controlled. It will take some time to repair the global supply chain, improve the supply of some important parts and unblock the global shipping logistics. Therefore, it is expected that the manufacturing industry will maintain a moderate expansion pattern. Zhang Liqun suggested that we should strive to expand domestic demand, especially give full play to the driving role of government investment in enterprise investment, employment and residents' consumption, and resolve the downward pressure formed by demand constraints as soon as possible. Cai Jin believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the recovery power of domestic demand still needs to be strengthened. We should continue to tap the potential of domestic demand and consolidate the endogenous power of economic recovery. (outlook new era)

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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