With the recent heating season in northern China, the peak energy consumption season has been started, and the supervision has been increased to ensure that the supply and power are fully on. The reporter of economic information daily learned that since October, the effect of increasing energy production and supply has begun to show, and the growth rate of raw coal production has changed from decline to rise. In early November, the daily output of coal reached a record high, and the largest month on month decline in coal price was more than 30%. The tension between power supply and demand across the country has also eased, showing a tight balance. According to the judgment of insiders, with the continuous implementation of follow-up supply guarantee measures, the tight situation of coal supply and demand will continue to improve, and the coal price may decline steadily. The national tight balance between power supply and demand Since late October, China's thermal power generation capacity has increased significantly, and clean energy such as wind, solar and nuclear power has also been fully opened, with additional issuance and stable supply. Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of national economy, introduced at the press conference on November 15 that the added value of the power industry increased by 10.7% year-on-year in October, 1.8 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. Under this, the tension between power supply and demand has eased. The reporter of economic information daily learned from China Southern Power Grid Corporation that since November 4, the five provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan that it operates and serves have not implemented orderly power consumption, and the power supply is generally stable. The State Grid Corporation of China, whose business area covers 26 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), also said that as of November 6, the scale of orderly power consumption of the whole network was close to zero, except that individual provinces and local periods took orderly power consumption measures for high energy consuming and high polluting enterprises. At the power industry Symposium this winter and next spring on November 12 and the chairman's meeting of China Power Council in 2021, Xin Baoan, chairman of China Power Council, said that power supply has achieved important phased results. With the arrival of winter, the three periods of peak power consumption, winter heating period and hydropower dry season are superimposed. The power supply and demand presents the situation and characteristics of "national tight balance, local gap, fuel is the key and safety pressure", and the "war" and "big test" continue. Promoting the power supply guarantee this winter and next spring and giving full play to the role of market mechanism is an important path. According to the data of the national energy administration, in 2020, the national market-oriented trading power reached 3 trillion kwh, accounting for 40% of the power consumption of the whole society. By the end of last year, 6 regional power grids and 30 provincial power grids had started the power auxiliary service market. The reporter of the economic information daily learned from the National Energy Administration on November 12 that the comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration recently issued a notice, which defined the key points of market mechanism construction and market supervision in the work of power supply guarantee this winter and next spring, These include the implementation of the market-oriented reform policy of coal-fired power generation on grid price, and the supervision of self owned power plants. The output reached a new high, and the coal price fell by more than 30% month on month Fuel is the key to insufficient heating and electricity at home. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics on the 15th, in October, the added value of China's coal industry increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. Among them, the output of raw coal increased by 4% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from decline to rise. With the continuous implementation of measures to increase coal production and supply, the high-quality production capacity of coal mines was further released, and the national coal output recovered and increased rapidly after the cold wave. The national development and Reform Commission said that on November 10, the daily output of coal dispatching reached 12.05 million tons, a record high, an increase of 120000 tons over the previous peak, laying a stronger foundation for the work of ensuring supply and price stability of national energy. With the continuous increase of national coal output and market supply, the coal supply and storage level of power plant and port coal yard are further improved. On November 10, the coal supply of power plants across the country again exceeded 8 million tons, reaching 8.143 million tons; The coal supply exceeds the coal consumption by more than 2 million tons, reaching 2.043 million tons, the coal storage in the power plant reaches 123 million tons, and the available days exceed 21 days. On November 11, 24 million tons of coal were stored in major ports in the north, an increase of more than 4 million tons over the beginning of the month. The mitigation of the impact of coal shortage can be further confirmed at the company level. On the evening of November 15, Danhua technology announced that the coal supply in Tongliao gold coal has basically returned to normal. The company has increased the ethylene glycol production load from November 15, 2021 and gradually returned to the normal level. The phenomenon of "coal crazy" has also been curbed. "Judging from the price situation in the circulation field in late October and early November, the coal price decreased significantly month on month," Fu Linghui said. According to the data of China coal transportation and Marketing Association, the market price of thermal coal has continued to fall since November. At present, the pit mouth price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has fallen to less than 900 yuan / ton. On November 10, the main contract of thermal coal futures closed at 884 yuan / ton, down 51.9% since October 20. The peak season has started, and the coal supply will continue to improve At present, energy supply has achieved phased results, but the string of energy supply can not be relaxed. It is predicted that the temperature in the north this winter is lower than that in the same period of the year, and even prone to extreme weather. In addition, with the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the demand for heating electricity and gas in the peak period of winter will continue to rise. "Winter and spring are the peak of energy consumption, and the demand for coal will further increase on the basis of the current high level." a spokesman for the National Energy Administration said at a recent online news conference in the fourth quarter that in the next step, the national energy administration will co-ordinate the increase in production and supply and safety and environmental protection, pay close attention to coal production, and actively coordinate the outstanding problems in the process of stabilizing production and increasing production, Effectively increase coal production capacity. It is understood that as of the end of October, Shanxi has organized experts to complete the report review and on-site verification of 39 nuclear increased capacity coal mines. The net increased capacity is expected to be 41 million tons / year, and the annual output is expected to exceed 1.2 billion tons. Jilin is coordinating the coal supply in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and increasing the procurement of imported coal. With the recent significant decline in temperature, northern China is entering the peak of coal consumption in winter. According to the judgment of China coal transportation and Marketing Association, during this winter and next spring, it is expected that China's coal demand, especially the demand for coal for power generation and heating, will be relatively strong, and the coal supply is expected to maintain growth. It is judged that the tight situation of coal supply and demand will continue to improve, the coal for power generation and heating and people's livelihood will be effectively guaranteed, and the coal price may fall steadily. According to the Research Report of CITIC futures, the current fear of coal shortage has eased, and winter heating has been started in many parts of North China in advance, and the peak season of coal consumption has been started in advance. Production and transportation will continue to be inclined to the supply guarantee of power coal. Given that the terminal inventory has reached the safety margin of 20 days, the actual growth of later consumption may be difficult to drive a greater replenishment drive, the excess supply will gradually flow to the market trade link, and the spot focus may continue to decline. (outlook new era)