The global mobile phone market runs at the bottom of the L-shape Huawei took five years to gain a firm foothold in the high-end market (data source: GfK) The consumer electronics industry is at the beginning of an accelerated fission period, as a "single category" of the consumer electronics industry Mobile phone mobile phone mobile phone novel coronavirus pneumonia has been a major player in the mobile phone market. The largest market for mobile phones has entered a period of great change in ten years. The uncertainty of world political and economic development and the new crowned pneumonia Black Swan have caused a great impact on the entire mobile phone industry. The global mobile phone market has undergone profound changes. Heraclitus, an ancient Greek philosopher, said: the only constant is change itself. All changes are trends; all trends are long-term. Trends are long-term and unchangeable. Let's interpret the development trend of the global mobile phone industry from the perspective of market and competition, insight into the law from change and invariance, and explore breakthroughs from the law. The global mobile phone market runs at the bottom of the L-shape From the 3G era to the 4G era, the global smartphone market has been in a period of rapid development. Until 2017, the global smartphone retail volume reached a historical peak and the market was close to saturation. Then, the smartphone retail volume continued to decline. According to the GfK global mobile phone retail monitoring data, 2019 was the third year of continuous decline in the global smartphone retail volume, with sales of 1.376 billion units, down from the same period last year In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the global sales of smart phones reached 1.267 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the sales of smart phones have picked up. GfK predicts that the global retail sales of smart phones will be 1.306 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. If the market scale drops to a certain low level, the sales will certainly pick up, but if the recovery speed is only 1% ~ 5%, it is equivalent to the market running at the L-shaped bottom; after falling to the bottom, if there is a growth rate of more than 10% V-shaped trend is the recovery expected by the industry. So, why is it predicted that this year and next year, the global mobile phone industry is difficult to show a V-shaped recovery trend? Taking history as a mirror and looking back on the past, it is not difficult to find that the biggest driving force for industrial development is technological innovation. In 2010, apple iPhone4 was born, opening the channel for the golden development of smart phones for ten years. So far, 5g, as a new communication technology, has developed rapidly from the first year of business in 2019 to the current commercial development. It does not show as much as expected for the civil market on the consumer side Big push. At present, the upgrading of the underlying technology of smart phones has entered the platform stage, and it is difficult to make a bright breakthrough in a short time. From the current situation of terminal sales, by July 2021, the global 5g smartphone penetration rate was 38%, of which the 5g penetration rate in China was 82%, and the overall overseas 5g penetration rate was only 20%. 5g products have basically been fully switched in the high-end market above $600, and 5g penetration in the overseas high-end market The penetration rate reaches 74%. However, for the low-end market below $300, the penetration rate of overseas 5g smartphones is only 2%. There is still a large amount of 4G smartphone space in developing regions. You should know that 70% of the market space in overseas regions is products below $300 (the data is from GfK global retail monitoring). On the one hand, from the perspective of consumer replacement, the global mobile phone market has entered the stage of long-term replacement of stock. So what is increment? The early replacement brought by the growth of consumer demographic dividend and per capita disposable income is increment; the conventional replacement has always existed every month, but this part of sales does not represent the market increment. Does 5g drive consumers to change phones in advance and bring about increment? The answer is No. according to the survey results of China mobile terminal laboratory, the average change cycle of Chinese mobile phone users in 2021 reached 27.1 months, an increase of 2.8 months compared with the survey in early 2019. In the first half of 2021, 70% of users passively changed 5g mobile phones, mainly due to mobile phone jamming, loss and insufficient storage space The battery is not durable, and only 14.3% of the users take the initiative to change the machine. Overseas, the average change cycle of the British group is 38 months and that of the United States is 41 months. When the change cycle of users reaches more than 27 months, it means that the "next generation upgrade" can not immediately arouse users' desire to buy, and consumers are more rational in their consumption of mobile phones. On the other hand, from the perspective of the supply side, the lack of core is the biggest obstacle in the industry. According to market news, the lack of core has affected the delivery time of the mobile phone industry. At present, the average delivery cycle of mobile phone chips has reached 19 weeks. The industry generally believes that as long as the delivery cycle exceeds 16 weeks, it means that the supply chain is in a very tight state. In addition to the SOC core in smart phones In addition to the chip shortage, other chips, such as screen driver chips and power management chips, also have a large-scale shortage. The industry generally expects that the core shortage will continue until the end of this year, and the global smartphone industry will face a hard battle and big test in the supply chain. Chinese manufacturers' competitive strategy turns to "multiplication and division" The industry competition before 2020 is that the head players squeeze the small players, and the head players "fight hand to hand" because of the existence of small players There is still a buffer. The competition after 2020 is an advanced competition between head players. The competition is further intensified, and the final has been put on the agenda. Focusing on Chinese head players, the strategic competition has shifted from extensive squeezing the space of other manufacturers to benchmarking with top brands for growth, from the "addition and subtraction" strategy to the "multiplication and division" stage. In the "addition and subtraction method" stage, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers look outside, select opponents, divide the battlefield, look for opponents' weak defense and strengthen their advantages. Since 2017, the competition in the domestic mobile phone market has become more and more fierce, and the market has been saturated to some extent. Therefore, the domestic mobile phone manufacturers have collectively gone to sea, and the Southeast Asian and Indian markets have become the first places for domestic mobile phone manufacturers. Overseas, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have implemented the "addition and subtraction method" The strategy is to select competitors with weak competitiveness, and quickly squeeze the space of other local manufacturers to obtain market share by virtue of price advantage. According to GfK's global mobile phone retail monitoring data, the market share of other mobile phone manufacturers in India and South Asia, except apple, Samsung and China's top brands, fell rapidly from 50% in 2016 to 13% in 2020. In Eastern Europe, the above data fell from 47% in 2016 to 10% in 2020. In "multiplication and division" At this stage, Chinese mobile phone manufacturers look inward, allocate internal resources, refine management and compete for comprehensive strength, and strive not to reveal flaws. By the first half of 2021, other brand space other than Chinese brands in the Asia Pacific and Europe region has been eroded, the brand share of the global mobile phone industry is highly concentrated, and the competition of top brands has been transformed from extensive squeezing space to competing for internal refined management If China's brand globalization is to go further, it will launch an impact on Samsung and apple, competing for internal fine management and comprehensive strength. No obvious weakness can be found when striving for comprehensive strength. According to the multiplication formula, if an item is less than 1, the overall results will be greatly reduced. This means that in any case, every field of the enterprise can not be lower than the industry benchmark, otherwise no matter how well it is done in other aspects, the overall work will be twice the effort. Whether it is Xiaomi's lightning expansion of Xiaomi's stores in China's offline channels, or OPP O the official inclusion of e-commerce into the 2021 global strategy shows that all top manufacturers are making up for their shortcomings and improving their comprehensive strength. Fine management requires investment in every field. More accurate strategies, more efficient input-output and more detailed channel management will affect the stratification and grading of mainstream brands again, and even lead to reshuffle. We need to seek breakthrough of innovation premium in the future Looking back on the past decade, there is only one logic in the entire technology industry, that is, the mobile Internet. The underlying logic of the consumer market is changing with the advent of the technology era - technology not only makes one group of enterprises lose the moat, but also provides the strongest assistance to another group of enterprises. Hardware products do not have the attribute of directly connecting more users, but it has become a trend with the unimpeded flow of information , the use of Hukou tablet will determine the life and death of the enterprise. In the buyer's market, the user is the key to the targeted brand. When Chinese brands become the absolute mainstay of the global mobile phone market, high-end breakthrough will be a tough battle that Chinese brands must face. So how to achieve high-end breakthrough? The key and opportunity is to use the characteristics of the Internet of science and technology to attract more users with current users. The best thing to do on this road is apple, which has led smart phones for more than ten years since the birth of the iPhone The leading end market is the perfect embodiment of Apple's product value and user reputation. Previously, Huawei was the most successful Chinese brand in high-end breakthrough. It also started from P9 and went through mate9, P10, mate10 and P20. It didn't achieve the goal until mate20, which took four years to build product reputation. The successful breakthrough of high-end brands lies not in how wide and deep the moat is dug, nor how fast and good the innovation is, but in whether the positive reputation of users can be maintained in the changing market. The reputation of hardware products can be expressed as: user reputation = (expected price) × (experience expectation). To make hardware products is to do expectation management. Technology is accumulated, and there is a lag effect between its own input and output. The more the network system iterates, the more it depends on the industry and its own technical reserves. Under this logic, high-end brands have no other shortcut except the accumulation from generation to generation. (Xinhua News Agency)