Having been included in government work reports for two consecutive years, possessing a trillion dollar market size, and having over 10000 industry related enterprises... Starting from the release of the "National Medium - and Long Term Development Plan for Civil Space Infrastructure (2015-2025)" in 2015, China's commercial aerospace industry, which has undergone ten years of development, will usher in its own shining moment in 2024. This year, commercial aerospace was included in the government work report for the first time, becoming a representative of new quality productivity. Top level design led the way, local policies, government funds, and industrial capital accelerated their entry, and the development of commercial aerospace ushered in vitality; In this year, the satellite Internet accelerated networking, the turning point of recoverable rocket technology was at hand, and Hainan commercial space launch site was put into use... China's commercial aerospace industry, which "honed a sword in ten years", moved from the original "one blueprint" to a critical stage of rapid growth, transformation and upgrading. Looking forward to the future, China's commercial aerospace industry is at a critical moment when the large-scale networking of satellite Internet is opening, and the turning point of recoverable rocket technology is at hand. How can we achieve technological ice breaking and commercial closed-loop faster? How to make the 'new growth engine' work better? How to narrow the gap with world-class standards? The answer may be a more standardized development environment, more precise support policies, and more sufficient financial support. This road is destined to be full of thorns, but as astronauts often say, "Every second a rocket flies upwards, it breaks through the resistance of the atmosphere." On the journey of the stars and the sea, China's commercial aerospace is writing a space legend belonging to this era with the pen of independent innovation. Ten years of sharpening a sword: The peak of industry development has arrived as scheduled. By the end of December 2024, 12 small satellites under Tianjin Yunyao Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd.'s Yunyao Meteorological Constellation have entered the China Meteorological Administration's comprehensive meteorological observation system and achieved business operation. This is the first time that domestic commercial small satellite data has been approved to enter the China Meteorological Administration's business system. In the view of Li Fenghui, Chairman of Yunyao Aerospace, national orders are not only financial support, but also a "vote of trust" in the technology of private commercial aerospace enterprises. In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly released the "National Medium - and Long Term Development Plan for Civil Space Infrastructure (2015-2025)", encouraging social capital to enter the aerospace field. This year is also regarded as the first year of China's commercial aerospace industry. After ten years of development, China's commercial aerospace technology, capital, talent and other factors have accelerated their gathering and achieved breakthroughs in multiple fields, entering a "golden growth period". ——The industrial scale is growing rapidly. Ten years ago, there were less than 10 commercial aerospace companies in China, but according to data from the China Aerospace Foundation, as of mid-2024, there are 546 registered and effectively operating commercial aerospace companies in China. As the journey to the galaxy welcomes more and more "disruptors", the commercial aerospace industry chain is also constantly extending. Zhang Shijie, chief scientist of Galaxy Aerospace, a satellite Internet solution provider and satellite manufacturer, said that at present, Galaxy Aerospace's partners radiate across the country, from more than 100 in 2018 to more than 1000 today, and the supply chain covers precision machining, casting, electronic integration, electromechanical, materials and other fields. According to data from the China Academy of Commerce Industry Research, the output value of China's commercial aerospace industry has increased from 1 trillion yuan in 2020 to around 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.9%. This data is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025. ——Technological breakthroughs are constantly being achieved. A person in charge of a commercial aerospace company said that at the beginning of entrepreneurship, we only had "one blueprint" and "one passion". At that time, the global commercial aerospace market was completely dominated by American companies such as SpaceX, and Chinese private commercial aerospace companies had not even broken through in the independent development of rocket engines. In 2024, multiple commercial rockets in China underwent vertical takeoff and landing recovery verification, which is considered a key path for commercial rockets to improve launch efficiency and reduce launch costs. In January and September of last year, Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque III" test rocket completed vertical takeoff and landing recovery verification at the 100 meter and 10 kilometer levels, respectively, and completed the first vertical takeoff and landing return rocket in China with secondary ignition in the air. In 2025, multiple recyclable commercial rockets are expected to make their first flight as planned. This marks the acceleration of the technological turning point for China's recyclable rockets. Technologically more mature commercial satellites are beginning to explore the transition from "small-scale customization" to "mass production", and leading companies in related fields have launched "assembly line" satellite production layouts. Against the backdrop of a mature industrial chain and increased production capacity, the large-scale networking of commercial satellites has begun, and giant constellations such as the Thousand Sail Constellation and GW Constellation, which aim to reach ten thousand stars, have started networking. ——Infrastructure is steadily being implemented. Last November, the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site successfully completed its first launch mission, and China's first commercial space launch site was put into operation smoothly. From then on, the launch vehicle, launch site, and payload formed a stable "triangular structure" for commercial aerospace, and the entire industrial chain of commercial aerospace was initially formed. In the opinion of Fan Ruixiang, an academician of the CAS Member and a rocket expert of China Aerospace Science and Technology Group, the first mission of Hainan commercial space launch site was a complete success, marking a breakthrough from 0 to 1 in China's commercial space launch site, and truly forming a complete ability to carry out the launch. Next starting point: Collaborative efforts in technology application and infrastructure. This year, commercial aerospace has once again been included in the government work report. This is the second consecutive year that commercial aerospace has appeared in government work reports, further highlighting its importance. Compared to 2024, there have been adjustments to the wording of commercial aerospace: firstly, the wording has shifted from "cultivating" to "promoting", proposing to conduct "large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies, new products, and new scenarios" for commercial aerospace; Secondly, commercial aerospace is clearly defined as an "emerging industry"; The third is to emphasize the safe and healthy development of commercial aerospace. Entering the next decade of commercial aerospace, higher expectations have been placed on it. A series of favorable policies, capital investment, and technological breakthroughs have brought reasons for optimism to the industry. Liao Tongkui, Vice Chairman of Aerospace Hongtu, believes that by 2025, China's commercial aerospace industry will enter a period of transformation and upgrading; Huo Liang believes that commercial aerospace has moved from the stage of technological exploration to the stage of industrialization and landing; Bu Xiangwei, Co CEO of Dongfang Space and Chief Designer of the "Gravity Series" Launch Vehicle, believes that China's commercial aerospace development is in its first period of rapid growth, with more and more participants emerging in various links of the industry chain... Standing on a new development coordinate, what other goals will commercial aerospace achieve in the future? Satellite Internet is rapidly networking on a large scale. Taking the Qianfan constellation, which plans to have over 15000 satellites, as an example, 54 satellites were launched in just four months in 2024. Under the launch plan of "one rocket, eighteen satellites", the Qianfan constellation will launch hundreds of satellites by 2025. The large number of satellite launches and fast networking speed have sparked considerable discussions within the industry. Satellite launches have entered the era of "scale", which has put forward higher requirements for the research and development efficiency of commercial satellite enterprises. Galaxy Aerospace has established a complete manufacturing chain for satellites ranging from 100 to 2000 kilograms. The production line has the capability to produce 100 to 150 medium-sized satellites annually, reducing the development cycle by 80%. The Geely Satellite Super Factory adopts an intelligent grid system to coordinate the design, research and development, production, testing, and operation processes. The satellite manufacturing cycle has been shortened to 28 days, and the mass production speed has been increased by 10 times. Commercial satellites that overlook the world have inherent globalization attributes, and the overseas business expansion of commercial satellite enterprises has emerged. Zhang Shijie introduced that the current increase in the number of satellites, the variety of satellite platforms, the improvement of satellite performance, as well as the commercialization and low-cost manufacturing of satellites, constantly enrich the application scenarios of satellites. Satellites can not only be used for ground emergency disaster relief, forecasting and early warning, but also for navigation services, network communication and other fields. "As a key step for the innovative application of satellite Internet technology to" go global ", Galaxy Aerospace is accelerating the launch of new quality productivity through practical exploration, and using aerospace technology to help the construction of the" the Belt and Road "spatial information corridor. ”Zhang Shijie said. Commercial satellites have taken the lead in providing more application space for the development of commercial rockets. Under the background of satellite acceleration into orbit, the launch frequency of commercial rockets will also increase significantly, and reusable rockets have taken on more expectations from the industry. In March of this year, Deep Blue Aerospace completed a B4 round of financing with a total scale of nearly 500 million yuan, with a focus on the research and commercialization of recyclable liquid rockets. This round of financing coincides with a critical juncture for China's recyclable rockets to shift from technology validation to commercial operation, "said Huo Liang. This financing not only provides financial support for the company's subsequent research and development investment and capacity expansion, but also once again confirms the capital market's optimism for the commercial aerospace track. Blue Arrow Aerospace is currently intensifying the development of a first stage reusable large rocket called "Zhuque-3", and it is expected to achieve the reuse of the first stage of the "Zhuque-3" rocket by 2026. In the next three years, there will be a singularity moment in the commercial aerospace field, when reusable rocket technology succeeds, which will propel China's commercial aerospace into the next era, "said Zhang Changwu, Chairman and CEO of Blue Arrow Aerospace. Huo Liang, CEO of Deep Blue Aerospace, introduced that Deep Blue Aerospace will also conduct the second vertical takeoff and landing recovery verification of the "Nebula 1" carrier rocket this year, and make efforts in commercial satellite loading, satellite launch commercialization and other fields to achieve the large-scale and normal launch of the "Nebula series" reusable rockets as soon as possible. In the next decade, reducing launch costs and increasing rocket capacity will still be the mainstream of commercial rocket development. Bu Xiangwei introduced that the subsystems of the company's "Gravity II" large liquid rocket have entered the initial sample development stage, with a carrying capacity of 15 tons, and will achieve its maiden flight before the end of this year. In the second decade, the recycling and reuse of rocket first stage will become mainstream, and the cost of space transportation will be significantly reduced to below 10000 yuan per kilogram. Exploration of second stage recycling and reuse will also begin, and ideally, the cost is expected to be further reduced to below 5000 yuan per kilogram, "said Bu Xiangwei. Infrastructure such as commercial launch sites will gradually enhance their support capabilities. In January of this year, the second phase of the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site project officially started, with plans to build two new liquid rocket launch stations on the basis of the existing two launch stations. Better development: Looking forward to standardizing the environment and increasing investment. Whether it is the focus of great power technology games, the highly anticipated "new growth engine", or the hope that ordinary people can get close to space in their lifetime, commercial aerospace carries full of eager expectations. Facing the challenges of the second decade of industrial development and moving towards maturity requires a more standardized environment, more targeted policies, and more abundant funding. We believe that as a manifestation of new quality productivity, China's commercial aerospace industry is facing unprecedented opportunities, and more disruptive technologies and technological innovations will continue to emerge. ”Zhang Shijie said that he hopes to open up more key industrial resources to private enterprises in the next stage of commercial aerospace development, improve the efficiency of production factor flow, and release more policy space for private enterprises. Specifically, the role of efficient markets can be fully utilized to explore innovative institutional mechanisms, market access, inclusive regulation, and new business rules, and to break down a number of institutional barriers that restrict the development of new technologies, new business models, and new modes. In the eyes of industry insiders, the disruptive innovation of China's commercial aerospace industry from 0 to 1 is still insufficient, with most innovation focused on localized, decentralized, and improved "from 1 to 10". This is not only due to our country's commerce