Optimizing housing land supply in multiple regions to promote supply-demand balance in the real estate market
2025-05-13
Recently, Beijing, Qingdao and other places have released annual plans for housing development in 2025, clarifying housing development goals, key tasks, and work requirements within the planned year. In terms of housing land supply, facing the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, various regions have made it clear that they will adhere to demand based supply and optimize housing land supply. Yan Yuejin, Vice President of Shanghai E-house Real Estate Research Institute, stated in an interview with reporters that optimizing the supply of housing land follows the national direction of appropriately controlling the pace and improving the quality of new land supply this year, and will have a significant impact on the land market and real estate market. In the future, various regions will need to make dynamic adjustments to land supply based on changes in market demand to improve the accuracy of supply. On May 9th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development released the "2025 Beijing Housing Development Annual Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), proposing to optimize the supply of housing land. In line with the trend of real estate development, we will reasonably control the supply of new real estate land and revitalize existing land. This year, we will allocate 240-300 hectares of land for commercial housing and 475 hectares of land for affordable housing. According to Fan Yijie, a senior analyst at the Zhongzhi Research Institute, the supply of residential land can be regulated from the source based on demand, so as to better match the housing supply with market demand, avoid significant fluctuations in housing prices due to oversupply or shortage, and help achieve stable housing prices. Scientifically arranging land supply based on housing demand has become an important principle for urban housing land supply at present. The General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development issued the "Guidelines for the Preparation of Urban Housing Development Plans and Annual Plans (Trial)" in March this year, which requires adherence to the linkage of "people, housing, land, and money" elements. Based on the current housing situation, population changes, industrial layout, etc., determine the housing demand, clarify the scale, structure, spatial layout, and temporal arrangement of housing supply, scientifically arrange land supply, guide the allocation of financial and fiscal resources, and achieve multi-dimensional and accurate matching of housing supply and demand through people determining housing, housing determining land, and housing determining money. Under this guidance, the Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of Qingdao City, Shandong Province, released the "Qingdao 2025 Housing Development Plan" at the end of April, which clearly aims to optimize the supply of residential land. Taking into account factors such as market demand, housing development plans, the turnover cycle and stock of commodity housing, and following the principle of determining land based on housing and supply based on demand, we have scientifically formulated an annual residential land plan. By 2025, we plan to increase the supply of various types of residential land by 227 hectares. The "Annual Plan for Housing Development in Guangzhou 2025" released by the Guangzhou Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau at the end of March proposes to adhere to the principle of supply based on demand and land based on housing, reasonably grasp the scale, timing, and structure of land supply, and maintain the basic stability of the total supply of housing land. Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, stated that optimizing the supply of residential land is essentially adjusting the market supply and demand relationship to promote supply-demand balance. In addition to adjusting the total amount of land supply, various regions should also optimize the land supply structure in different areas of the city as much as possible to meet different housing needs and achieve a dual balance between supply and demand in terms of both quantity and structure. For example, residential buildings along the rail transit line meet the demand for rigid housing, and the supply of land for housing types such as affordable housing can be appropriately increased. It is worth noting that the "Plan" released by Beijing proposes to increase the integration of stations and cities, prioritize development and construction in areas with relatively complete facilities such as rail stations, moderately increase construction intensity, and create a vibrant center for employment, housing, and commerce. According to the annual construction plan for affordable housing, we will coordinate and arrange the supply of various types of affordable housing land, steadily improve the quality of affordable housing space supply, and prioritize the layout around current and recently constructed rail stations and key functional areas. Beijing prioritizes supplying high demand areas such as the vicinity of rail transit stations, which can promote intensive land use, reduce the cost of separating work and residence, and promote work residence balance. ”Fan Yijie believes that optimizing the housing land structure based on factors such as market demand, population, and industry in different regions, and tilting land resources towards areas with strong demand and great development potential, can improve land use efficiency, allocate land resources more reasonably, and promote the optimization of urban spatial structure and functional improvement. Improving the quality of supply, boosting the popularity of land auctions, and optimizing the supply of housing land play an important role in stabilizing the land market and even the real estate market. Fan Yijie stated that by controlling the pace and structure of land supply, avoiding situations of oversupply or supply shortage in the land market can help stabilize land prices and create a stable environment for the land market. Under the measures of adjusting land supply plans, optimizing land supply rhythm and structure in various regions, the land market has shown a trend of recovery since the beginning of this year, and the land market in core cities has maintained a high level of heat. According to data from CRIC, in the first quarter of 2025, the total construction area of pre supplied land in China decreased by 47% year-on-year, and the land area decreased by 38%. In April, the land supply remained structurally optimized and further reduced. As of April 25th, the construction area of land supply in April was 43.54 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27%. In Zhang Hongwei's view, the continued popularity of the land market is due to the continuous improvement of the quality of newly added land supply. Since the beginning of this year, various regions have launched high-quality land parcels in core areas, which has increased the enthusiasm of developers to acquire land. Yan Yuejin suggested that the supply of housing land in the future can be dynamically adjusted according to the market demand in the second quarter. With the continuous optimization of the housing provident fund policy, the housing demand of the first-time homebuyers may be further released, and more suitable land needs need to be introduced on the land supply side. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Securities Daily
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