Think Tank

Take the lead and deliver a policy combination punch.

2025-05-06   

Driven by a more proactive fiscal policy stance, despite the fiscal revenue being under pressure in the first quarter of this year, the and pace of fiscal expenditure have been further enhanced. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, although the general public budget revenue in the first quarter decreased by 1.1 percent-on-year, expenditure increased by 4.2 percent; the revenue of government-managed funds decreased by 11 percent year-on-year, but expenditure increased 11.1 percent year-on-year; the general public budget completed 24.5 percent of the annual expenditure target, higher than the average level of the period in the past five years. In terms of structure, the expenditure on social security and employment increased by 7.9 percent year-on-year, and the expenditure on increased by 7.8 percent year-on-year, with the growth rate of expenditure in key areas far exceeding the overall level. It can be seen that under the trend tight fiscal balance, the proactive fiscal policy has shown a clear trend of increasing investment in key areas.

The high expenditure intensity and fast progress in the first quarter of this year the proactive and front-loaded nature of the fiscal policy, which has effectively promoted the economy to gradually recover. In the first quarter, GDP increased by 5.4 percent yearon-year, consumption and investment continued to improve, the overall employment situation remained stable, and new productive forces of good quality continued to grow and strengthen. Among them, the policy large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in continued to take effect, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter increased by 4.6 percent yearon-year, and the investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 19 percent year-on-year. In terms of investment, the fixed asset investment in first quarter increased by 4.2 percent year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than that of the previous year, among which, the infrastructure investment increased by .8 percent year-on-year, the manufacturing investment increased by 9.1 percent year-on-year, and the investment in high-tech industries increased by .5 percent year-on-year. In addition, the three major indices of China's Purchasing Managers' Index continued to rise in the expansion zone, and social continued to boost. These positive changes are conducive to expanding production and demand, not only providing momentum for the economic turnaround, but also promoting structural optimization, and helping to "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality".

It should also be seen that the current economic operation still faces many difficulties and challenges, and the impact of in the domestic and international environment will continue to be transmitted to finance, and the contradiction between revenue and expenditure is still prominent. The external environment is becoming more complex and severe, may impact some of our fields such as trade; there are still challenges within the country, such as insufficient effective demand, especially sluggish consumption, difficulties in production and operation of some, and pressure on employment and income growth. Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainties, fiscal policies must continue to play their counter-cyclical regulatory role, especially by continuously increasing the intensity expenditure and accelerating the progress of expenditure, so that policies can achieve maximum effectiveness. To this end, this year's deficit rate reached 4%, and the new government bonds 11.86 trillion yuan, both setting historical highs. From the budget perspective, this year's general public budget revenue is expected to increase by 0.%, but expenditure is expected to increase by 4.4%; the revenue of the government fund budget is expected to increase by 0.7%, but expenditure is expected increase by 23.1%, which reflects that despite the low growth of fiscal revenue, we also need to ensure the intensity of expenditure through overall planning of resources. At same time, full consideration should be given to the timeliness of policy implementation, so as to take the initiative to exert efforts in advance and to accelerate the progress of expenditure. This not only conducive to the formation of actual expenditure as soon as possible, to drive more social investment, to enhance the momentum of economic development and the effect of improving peoples livelihood, but also helps to improve the efficiency of funds and avoid problems such as "funds waiting for projects" and "rush spending at the end of the year"
Looking ahead, we still need to make full use of policy space and continue to increase the intensity of expenditure, optimize the structure of expenditure, and play a "combination of". We will continue to strengthen financial support for expanding domestic demand, building a modern industrial system, ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, promoting the integrated development of urban and areas and regions, and building ecological civilization, and truly use "real money" on the blade and spend it on the most important aspects. For example, this year, it is to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which will support the "two heavy" and "two new" policies with greater, and the pulling effect may reach a new high. For another example, in 2025, the central finance arranged 118.8 billion yuan of funds for the reconstruction of the industrial base and the high-quality development of manufacturing industry, an increase of 14.5%. In addition, we will thoroughly implement various policies, continue to implement the package of debt relief policies for local governments, and help difficult enterprises in various ways, such as speeding up the settlement of overdue accounts payable to enterprises and financing support.
We should exert efforts in advance to promote the implementation of the established policies as soon as possible, and the implementation of active fiscal policies should race against various to run an "accelerated" economy. We should also fully prepare for backup plans and reserve space for policy adjustments. On the one hand, we should speed up the issu and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. On the other hand, through pilot projects of "self-examination and self-issance" of special bonds, improving zero-based budgeting, strengthening the reserve of high-quality projects, and optimizing the progress and supervision of budget execution, we should use the and policies that have been arranged to produce benefits as soon as possible. Of course, we should not only spend money in time, but also spend it well, truly increase budget full cycle performance management, improve the efficiency of funds, and free up more funds for development needs and people's livelihood expectations

Edit:Luo yu Responsible editor:Jia jia

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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