China

Dealing with External Uncertainty with High Quality Development Certainty: Focus on Economic Work from the Central Politburo Meeting

2025-04-27   

In the final year of the 14th Five Year Plan, it is crucial to do a good job in economic work. On April 25th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and work, emphasizing the need to "firmly handle our own affairs and expand high-level opening up to the outside world" and "respond to the uncertainty of rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development". A series of important deployments were made to further strengthen the confidence of all parties in development, actively and effectively respond to difficult challenges, and continuously consolidate the foundation for sustained economic recovery and improvement, pointing out the direction and focus of progress. Focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, ranking among the top economies in the world in terms of economic growth rate. The meeting of the Central Political Bureau pointed out that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has shown a positive trend, social confidence has continued to rise, high-quality development has been solidly promoted, and the overall social situation has remained stable. At the same time, it was pointed out that the foundation for sustained economic recovery and improvement still needs to be further consolidated, and the impact of external shocks has increased. The new statement at the meeting, 'Focus on stabilizing employment, stabilizing enterprises, stabilizing the market, and stabilizing expectations,' has attracted attention. Employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations are crucial to the overall economic development. Faced with a complex and severe external environment, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations provides a solid foundation for the Chinese economy. ”Guo Liyan, Deputy Director of the Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that the proposal of the "four stabilizations" for the first time at the meeting fully demonstrates the Party Central Committee's comprehensive and scientific grasp of the economic situation, and sends a strong signal to solidly stabilize the overall economic situation. To strengthen bottom line thinking, fully prepare contingency plans, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, and continuously improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and economy... In response to the current economic situation, the conference has made a series of new important deployments. Guo Liyan analyzed that this series of work arrangements adheres to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, with clear and precise directions, better coordinating development and security, and balancing the stimulation of endogenous power and the expansion of external space. It will effectively guide social expectations, boost development confidence, and continuously consolidate and enhance the trend of China's economy towards new and positive development. Intensifying the implementation of more proactive macro policies is an important driving force for maintaining stable economic operation. The meeting emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of more proactive macro policies, make full use of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. In response to the current situation, the meeting emphasized the need to 'intensify efforts' and' make full use of resources', with the aim of requiring policies to be proactive and fully effective, and to respond to external environmental uncertainties with policy certainty. ”He Daixin, Director of the Finance Research Office at the Institute of Financial Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said. The meeting stressed that the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra long term special treasury bond should be accelerated. Since the beginning of this year, local governments have accelerated the issuance of new special bonds, with a cumulative issuance of nearly 1 trillion yuan in the first quarter; The issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond in 2025 has also started. The important focus of this year's fiscal policy is to comprehensively expand domestic demand. The issuance of larger scale ultra long term special treasury bond and local government special bonds, the promotion of "dual" and "new" projects and the construction of projects around the country will help boost consumption and improve investment efficiency. ”He Daixin said. In terms of monetary policy, the meeting clarified multiple arrangements, including timely reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, the creation of new structural monetary policy tools, and the establishment of new policy oriented financial tools. Zeng Gang, Director of Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that under the moderately loose monetary policy tone, reducing reserve requirement ratios and interest rates will further strengthen countercyclical regulation, ensure sufficient financial aggregate, and promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs. Financial support for the real economy should not only continue to focus on the overall quantity, but also concentrate on the structural strength. ”Zeng Gang said that the new tool created this time has a clear direction, which will accurately guide the flow of funds to areas such as technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade. It is an enrichment and upgrade of the existing financial instrument system. Our country still has ample policy space, and the synergy between existing policies and incremental policies will continue to enhance the driving force and vitality of economic development. Enhancing the role of consumption in driving economic growth and boosting consumption is of paramount importance in expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation. The meeting clearly proposed to enhance the role of consumption in driving economic growth. At present, the fundamental role of consumption in China's economic development still needs to be further played. The overall consumption rate is relatively low, and compared with developed countries, China has enormous potential to expand consumption. ”Huang Qunhui, a researcher at the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said. Since the beginning of this year, a series of policies have been continuously introduced from the central to local levels, effectively promoting the recovery of consumption. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 4.6% year-on-year, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than the whole year of last year. The meeting proposed measures such as "increasing the income of low - and middle-income groups", "vigorously developing service consumption", "clearing restrictive measures in the consumption field as soon as possible", and "establishing service consumption and pension re loans". The series of deployments in the conference have strong targeting, such as the high marginal propensity to consume of the middle and low-income groups, which can directly convert their income into consumption power; Establishing service consumption and pension refinancing is an innovative financial policy tool that can provide lower cost financial support for related industries. ”Chen Lifen, a researcher at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that these policies complement each other and work from both the supply and demand sides, injecting "fresh water" into the consumer market. In response to the "two new" and "two double" work, the meeting proposed to increase financial support, expand the scope and improve the quality of the implementation of the "two new" policy, and strengthen the implementation of the "two double" construction. Huang Qunhui stated that the implementation of the "two new" and "two double" policies last year had significant results, providing strong support for the annual economic growth. The strengthening and expansion of the "two new" and "two double" policies this year will further drive the growth of related industries such as the service industry, injecting stronger momentum into high-quality economic development. Multiple measures are being taken to assist struggling enterprises. Currently, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and there is a lack of effective demand growth momentum in China. Some enterprises are facing operational difficulties. The meeting emphasized the need to take multiple measures to assist disadvantaged enterprises. The series of deployments at the conference, including "strengthening financing support," "accelerating the integration of domestic and foreign trade," "cultivating and strengthening new quality productive forces, and creating a number of emerging pillar industries," directly address the concerns of enterprises and support them in better responding to difficult challenges. Cai Zhibing, a professor at the Economics Teaching and Research Department of the Central Party School (National School of Administration), stated that the conference emphasized the need to continuously promote key core technology research and development, which has strong practical significance. Overcoming key core technologies is the only way to break through bottlenecks and achieve high-level technological self-reliance, and also helps to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises in the global industrial chain. The deployment of the 'Technology Board' to innovate and launch the bond market at the conference has attracted attention. In the opinion of Li Xiangjun, director of the Investment and Financing Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, after the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in A-shares, the bond market will launch the "Science and Technology Board", which will better play the role of the capital market in serving the real economy, further broaden the financing channels for technology enterprises, and accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements with low-cost funds. Currently, artificial intelligence is accelerating the empowerment of thousands of industries. The meeting proposed to accelerate the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative. Cai Zhibing stated that the widespread application of artificial intelligence models will better empower industrial transformation and upgrading, cultivate and strengthen new quality productivity, further enhance the resilience and security level of China's industrial and supply chains, and strengthen enterprise competitiveness. The more difficult and challenging it is to solve development problems through deepening reform and opening up, the more we need to seek motivation from reform and vitality from opening up. We must persist in solving development problems through deepening reform and opening up, "the meeting released an important signal of deepening reform and opening up. Accelerating the construction of a unified national market is an inevitable requirement for smoothing the domestic circulation and promoting the construction of a new development pattern. The meeting called for accelerating the construction of a unified national market and solidly carrying out special actions to regulate law enforcement related to enterprises. Building a unified national market is a major reform task. To implement the conference deployment effectively, we need to accelerate the improvement of market system rules, strictly regulate law enforcement related to enterprises, smooth the flow of factors, promote the transformation from a 'big market' to a 'strong market', and continuously accumulate momentum for high-quality development. ”Zou Yinyi, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said. Currently, the world economy is facing a severe test of unilateralism, with trade protectionism rapidly escalating and increasing uncertainty in the global political and economic landscape. A series of important deployments, including "increasing the pilot policies for opening up the service industry," "strengthening services for enterprises to" go global, "" working with the international community to actively uphold multilateralism and oppose unilateral bullying, "have released China's unwavering determination to expand high-level opening-up to the outside world. The door of China's opening up will continue to widen, continuously injecting certainty into the global economy through its own development, and continuing to serve as the main engine and anchor of world economic growth. ”Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Institute at Tsinghua University, said. Continuous efforts to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, coordinate development and security, are necessary to ensure the stable and sustainable development of the Chinese economy. The meeting made specific arrangements for preventing and resolving risks in key areas. The meeting proposed to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, increase the supply of high-quality housing, optimize the policy of purchasing existing commercial housing, and continue to consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market. Since the beginning of this year, China's real estate market has continued its good trend of stabilizing and stopping the decline, showing a good recovery trend in key indicators such as transaction volume, housing price trends, and land market, which reflects that market confidence is further boosted. Lou Jianbo, director of the Real Estate Law Research Center at Peking University, said that the series of deployments at the conference have sent a clear signal to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market at the policy level. Lou Jianbo stated that the current real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the structural supply-demand imbalance contradiction urgently needs to be resolved. In this regard, the meeting clarified a series of measures to strengthen the implementation of urban renewal actions, effectively and orderly promote the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, and increase the supply of high-quality housing, which will help comprehensively improve the living quality and happiness of residents, better meet the increasingly diverse housing needs of the people, and promote the stable and healthy development of the industry in the medium and long term. The meeting also proposed to continue implementing the comprehensive debt policy for local governments and accelerate the resolution of the problem of local governments defaulting on corporate accounts. Preventing and resolving local debt risks remains an important task for the current and future period. ”He Daixin said that accelerating the resolution of local government arrears of corporate accounts is also conducive to relieving the pressure of corporate capital flow, stabilizing production and operation, and boosting market confidence. The ultimate goal of promoting high-quality development is to focus on ensuring and improving people's livelihood and well-being. The more complex and severe the economic situation is, the more we need to grasp the bottom line of people's livelihood. Billions of business entities are the main battlefield for employment. Recently, the United States has imposed excessive tariffs, posing challenges to some companies. The meeting proposed to increase the proportion of stable employment return from the unemployment insurance fund for enterprises greatly affected by tariffs. The deployment of this meeting aims to provide real policy support, effectively help enterprises reduce their burden and increase their momentum, support more enterprises to retain workers and stabilize their positions, and use funds wisely. ”Xu Guangjian, professor of the School of Public Administration of Renmin University of China, said. Price relationship affects economic operation and impacts hundreds

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:XinhuaNet

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