The growth rate of imports and exports rebounded month by month in the first quarter, and there is hope for a dual approach of stabilizing foreign trade and expanding domestic demand in the second quarter
2025-04-15
The main economic data for the first quarter is being released one after another. The General Administration of Customs announced on the 14th that China's import and export of goods in the first quarter amounted to 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. This is the eighth consecutive quarter in which China's import and export scale has exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and from a monthly trend, the growth rate of imports and exports has rebounded month by month: it decreased by 2.2% in January, remained basically unchanged in February, and increased by 6% in March. China's foreign trade is moving forward under pressure, achieving scale growth and quality improvement Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director General of the General Administration of Customs, stated at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 14th that in the face of increasing external difficulties and challenges, various regions, departments, and foreign trade operators have actively responded and promoted a stable start to China's foreign trade imports and exports in the first quarter. Looking ahead to the second quarter, analysts suggest that measures to stabilize foreign trade are expected to significantly increase, while targeted policies to support the transition from exports to domestic sales will be introduced domestically, with a focus on expanding domestic demand. With the increase of countercyclical adjustment policies, the impact of external fluctuations on the overall macroeconomic operation is controllable. In the first quarter, foreign trade achieved a stable start under pressure, demonstrating strong resilience in exports and being one of the "three pillars" driving economic growth. In the first quarter, China's export scale exceeded 6 trillion yuan, achieving a rapid growth of 6.9%, demonstrating strong resilience under pressure. Especially in March, exports increased by 13.5% year-on-year, a significant acceleration of 10.1 percentage points from January to February, exceeding market expectations. Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, stated that there are three main reasons for the significant acceleration of export growth in March. One reason is that the base for the same period last year was relatively low. Secondly, external demand still has strong resilience, with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI index in the expansion range for each month of the first quarter. The third is the existence of a certain "export grabbing" effect. On the other hand, China's transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing has strong momentum, effectively enhancing the market attractiveness of export products. In the first quarter, exports of wind turbines, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, and other products increased by 43.2%, 18.8%, and 8.2%, respectively. At the same time, the majority of foreign trade operators have quickly responded to the diversified demands of the global market, such as industries like toys and clothing. Through the "small order quick response" model of small orders, multiple batches, and rapid response, the delivery cycle has been significantly reduced from the original one month to less than one week, significantly enhancing international competitiveness. In recent years, China has actively built diversified markets and deepened industrial and supply chain cooperation with various parties, which not only empowers each other's development, but also enhances our own resilience Wang Lingjun stated. Looking ahead to the second quarter: With a dual approach of stabilizing foreign trade and expanding domestic demand, the impact of external disturbances is controllable as we enter the second quarter. The so-called 'equivalent tariffs' have cast a shadow over the prospects of global trade and economic growth. Analysts say that although China's exports are indeed facing complex and severe external situations, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Liu Tao, a senior researcher at Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, said that it should be objectively and rationally recognized that China's export industry still has great advantages and resilience. Firstly, after years of adjustment, China's dependence on exports from the United States has become relatively low, and the export market is becoming increasingly diversified. Secondly, China has a competitive advantage in the entire industry chain and mid to high end manufacturing industry. At present, 90% of China's exported products are capital intensive and technology intensive products with high added value, and the mid to high end manufacturing industry will play a good supporting role in stabilizing exports. China is accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, and new technologies, products, scenarios, and formats such as cross-border e-commerce and new offshore trade are emerging at an accelerated pace. At the micro level, Chinese enterprises are also constantly responding flexibly through strategies such as' going global ', exploring diversified markets, and enhancing product added value Liu Tao said, "The related losses caused by the tariff issue can be completely offset by increasing policy incentives such as investment and consumption." Feng Lin believes that in the context of increasing external economic and trade environment variables, China's measures to stabilize foreign trade will be significantly intensified. At the same time, targeted policies will be introduced domestically to support the "export to domestic sales" policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and alleviating the impact of the decline in external demand on the export industry and even the overall macro economy. This year, under the policy orientation of comprehensively exerting unconventional countercyclical adjustments, especially vigorously boosting domestic consumption, the impact of external fluctuations on the overall macroeconomic operation is controllable She said. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China.org.cn
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