Think Tank

Pay attention to the price increase of coffee, and also pay attention to climate change

2025-04-14   

Recently, some media quoted Nestle Coffee distributors as saying that this global coffee giant has launched a new round of price adjustments in the Chinese market, and has taken the lead in implementing price increases for some large-scale instant products targeting enterprise channels, ranging from 11% to 15%. Some consumers have also noticed that the coffee prices of a large fast food chain brand have increased by at least 1 yuan recently. However, many large freshly ground coffee chain stores have not yet adjusted their prices. Correspondingly, global coffee bean prices have been consistently high in recent times. Coffee futures prices have continued to soar, reaching their highest level in over 50 years. This highlights the imbalance between supply and demand of coffee beans. In recent years, global coffee demand has continued to expand, especially in the rapidly growing Chinese market. We are discussing the "village coffee" that sells more than 4000 cups a year, focusing on the accelerated "sinking" of coffee brands in the county town, and sharing our tasting experience of premium coffee on social media platforms. Their common background is the strong rise of coffee consumption. However, compared to the hot demand side, the supply side is a different scene. In the past year, the main coffee bean producing areas such as Brazil and Vietnam have experienced climate disasters such as rainstorm and drought to varying degrees, and frequent extreme weather has seriously affected the production and supply of coffee beans. The International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) predicts that as global temperatures rise, existing coffee producing areas in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, and Vietnam will significantly shrink, and the suitable area for Arabica coffee cultivation in Central America and Brazil will decrease by 30% and 25%, respectively, while Indonesia will decrease by 21% -37%. And these four countries currently hold over 60% of the global market share for Arabica coffee. In addition, the rising shipping costs caused by geopolitical conflicts and other factors have intensified the tight supply of coffee beans, further widening the scissors gap between supply and demand. If you tell others that the price increase of this cup of coffee in my hand is the result of the "butterfly effect" under climate change, you may receive disdain, but that is the truth, at least partially. The price increase of a few yuan may not be sensitive to some people, and naturally it is not enough to make them feel that the bitter fruit of climate change has already climbed to the tip of their tongue. So, the endangered status of matsutake mushrooms may be sufficient. Although the impact coefficient of climate uncertainty on the sudden decrease in matsutake production cannot be accurately determined, there is a consensus on the establishment of the relationship between the two. Anthropologists wrote in the book "Matsutake at the End of the World": "It reminds us that we rely on natural processes that transcend humanity. We cannot repair anything, not even those we ourselves destroy." Climate change is closely related to everyone. As a slow variable, its impact is destined to be slow, but it must also be profound. Especially industries that rely on the weather for their livelihoods will be more directly impacted and affected by climate change, with no other choice but to adapt. Our discussion on the impacts of climate change is still too limited, too shallow, too light hearted, and lacks the necessary risk awareness. The corresponding risk management is also relatively weak. In other words, we may not be fully prepared yet. So pay attention to the price increase of coffee, and also care about our climate. Yes, in the face of such a large climate change process, we may speak lightly, but change always starts with discussion. (New Society)

Edit:Luo yu Responsible editor:Wang er dong

Source:GMW.cn

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