Economy

Foreign institutions support the undervalued and resilient A-share market in China

2025-04-14   

Recently, multiple foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley, UBS AG (hereinafter referred to as "UBS"), and Deutsche Bank collectively spoke out, expressing three core judgments: significant valuation advantages, sufficient policy "toolbox" reserves, and strengthened logic of technological innovation. Supported by multiple advantages, the Chinese market has obvious resilience. Specifically in the A-share market, Goldman Sachs' latest research report predicts that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will still have 11% and 15% upside potential, respectively, in the next 12 months; Morgan Stanley research suggests that investors gradually increase the proportion of Chinese A-shares in their global investment portfolios. Optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese market. Recently, multiple foreign institutions have released their latest research reports, expressing optimism about the prospects of the Chinese market. Goldman Sachs China stock strategy analyst Fu Si stated at a media briefing on April 11th that the A-share market may perform better than the Hong Kong stock market. The reason is that A-shares are more sensitive to domestic policy stimulus and less affected by international market fluctuations. Regarding the position of overseas funds, Fu Si stated that since the beginning of the year, global active funds and overseas hedge funds have slightly increased their positions driven by this AI market, but overall they are still at historical lows with limited selling space and low downside risks. In the medium to long term, there is a possibility of global allocation funds flowing back and rotating in the A-share market. In addition, foreign institutions also believe that the current valuation of A-shares is relatively low and has higher resilience. Meng Lei, China stock strategy analyst at UBS Securities, said that currently, the static P/E ratios of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and all A-shares are 11.7 times and 13.8 times, respectively, which are 0.7 standard deviations lower than the five-year average. At present, the stock risk premium in the A-share market is still 1.7 standard deviations higher than the long-term average, approaching the highest level in history. Looking at the world, the current valuation of the CSI 300 Index has a discount of 12% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets (excluding China) Index, and the premium is lower than the historical average of 21%. "The lower valuation level may make the A-share market more resilient. The policy combination has a significant effect. Since late September last year, a series of economic stimulus policies and positive economic data have continuously increased global investors' interest in the Chinese market, and foreign investment's willingness to allocate to the Chinese stock market has significantly rebounded. Stefan Hopps, CEO of Deutsche Bank Group Asset Management, recently stated that "A-share ETFs saw significant inflows of funds when stimulus policies were announced in September and October last year. The government's clear support for private enterprises, technological innovation, and the rise of DeepSeek have all sparked interest from retail and institutional investors in the Chinese market Foreign institutions have also paid attention to the implementation effect of the "stabilizing the stock market" policy and the "combination punch". Fu Si said that from the perspective of confidence support, this round of central Huijin and other "national team" fund purchases has stabilized market sentiment. In the long run, more medium and long-term funds entering the market will further enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. Especially in China, the equity investment ratio of pension funds is still at a relatively low level, and it may release greater potential in the future. From the perspective of investment strategy, for global investors, the A-share market has a low correlation with other markets and presents a good defensive stance. Zhu Liang, Deputy General Manager and Investment Director of Lianbo Fund, said, "The Chinese capital market has always been mainly driven by internal factors, making it a good target for overseas investors to diversify risks. Overall, the current valuation of the Chinese market is relatively low, and there are still many high-quality enterprises with healthy cash flow, which makes the Chinese stock market very attractive. Focusing on technology, consumption and other sectors is the main investment line, while foreign institutions mainly focus on AI, consumption, high dividend and other sectors. Zhu Bingqian, Chief Market Strategist of Lu Bomai Fund, believes that although there has been a significant adjustment in the technology sector recently, China is still in the long-term context of technological transformation, and new quality productivity is still a policy priority. Therefore, she is optimistic about the future performance of Chinese technology stocks in the medium and long term. Fu Si said that it is suggested to focus on consumer sectors (such as service internet and medicine) and high dividend stocks benefiting from domestic demand. She explained that high dividend stocks are still favored by overseas investors, and recently listed companies have become more active in repurchasing, leading to a significant increase in investor demand for defensive allocation. Guo Peng, Deputy General Manager of Morgan Asset Management (China), said, "China is demonstrating strong competitiveness and growth potential in strategic emerging industries such as technological innovation, green energy, and artificial intelligence. In addition, the banking industry still has attractive allocation potential. Yang Shuo, a financial industry analyst at Goldman Sachs in China, said, "The current dividend yield of A-shares and Hong Kong bank stocks is 4% to 6%, which is attractive to long-term and value investors. If banks can increase their dividend payout, the dividend yield will be more attractive, or trigger a valuation reassessment." Meng Lei suggested that investors strategically rebalance between "value" and "growth. Large cap stocks may outperform the market in the short term due to their relatively high defensive nature. In terms of industry preferences, Meng Lei said that tactically, he is optimistic about industries that benefit from favorable domestic policies. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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