Starting this week, macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2025 will be released one after another, with the performance of core economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumption, investment, and foreign trade becoming the focus of market attention. For this purpose, the reporter interviewed several industry experts and chief economists to jointly forecast the economic data for the first quarter and deeply analyze the focus and direction of macroeconomic policies for the second quarter. Experts interviewed generally believe that the rebound in industrial production and consumption momentum in the first quarter provides strong support for the economy, while industries related to real estate investment and sales still have some drag. With the recovery of domestic demand and policy support, the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 is around 5.2%, which is higher than the economic growth target for 2025. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, told reporters that the economy is expected to operate smoothly at the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of around 5.2% in the first quarter of 2025. Although external demand has slowed down, policy efforts have boosted domestic demand. Mingming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, stated in an interview with reporters that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is expected to reach around 5.2%. In the first quarter of 2025, China's economy will continue its recovery momentum since the fourth quarter of last year, showing an overall positive trend. According to a research report released by the China International Capital Corporation (CICC) team, based on economic data from the previous two months, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be around 5.3%. Bian Quanshui, Chief Analyst of Western Securities, believes that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter may be 5.1%, which is slower than the 5.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. Mingming stated that based on the data released for the first two months of this year, industrial production has grown rapidly, domestic demand has rebounded under increased policies, and the "trade in" policy has supported zero social growth. Manufacturing and infrastructure investment (broad caliber) have increased significantly year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI data for March rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, and the stable and positive trend of the economy continues. From the perspective of accounting indicators, in the first two months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 5.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the whole year of last year; The production activity index of the service industry increased by 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the whole year last year Wen Bin stated that due to last year's GDP growth rate of 5%, this indicates that the growth rate in the first two months of this year is expected to remain above 5%. The March PMI showed that the economy continued to expand, but slightly weaker than seasonal. Wen Bin further stated that in terms of domestic demand, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months increased by 4% year-on-year, higher than the 3.5% for the whole of last year; Fixed assets investment increased by 4.1% year on year, higher than 3.2% in the whole year of last year. Among them, investment in infrastructure construction and real estate development was better than that in the whole year of last year, only the investment in manufacturing was slightly lower; From an external demand perspective, in the first two months, China's exports in US dollars increased by 2.3% year-on-year, narrowing from last year's 5.9%. However, the trade surplus in the first two months increased significantly compared to the same period last year, and net exports in the first quarter still provided support for economic growth. The China International Capital Corporation (CICC) team released a research report stating that due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival and policy incentives, the economic growth rate in March may have a marginal improvement compared to the previous two months. Among them, the misalignment of the Spring Festival is mainly reflected in the earlier recovery of economic activities compared to the same period last year, and the low base has provided some support for the growth rate. The policy stimulus is mainly reflected in the possible acceleration of consumption and infrastructure construction; In terms of consumption, the progress of "trade in" accelerated in March, especially with a significant marginal improvement in car sales; In terms of investment, the availability of fiscal funds and the promotion of physical workload have driven the growth of infrastructure investment. In addition, the export front under trade uncertainty may also boost the export growth rate in March. Looking ahead to the second quarter, macroeconomic policies continue to exert force. Mingming stated that the domestic economy is facing intensified external disturbances, and a series of policy uncertainties have impacted the global economy, trade, and capital flows. In order to better respond to the challenges of external factors, the policy side should actively exert efforts to expand domestic demand, especially to boost consumption and strengthen endogenous momentum. Xiong Yuan, Chief Economist of Guosheng Securities, believes that overall, policies in the past half month have continued to focus on stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand. We should closely monitor the three major types of policies that are likely to be introduced: reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, which may exceed expectations; The fiscal stimulus is increased, for example, treasury bond will probably be issued again this year; Intensify efforts to expand domestic demand, including expanding the scale of "trade in" subsidies, raising minimum wage standards, and increasing maternity allowance standards. When it comes to the focus of the next macroeconomic policy, Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities, said that firstly, actively expanding domestic demand. In the short term, according to the situation, it is necessary to increase the fiscal budget, lower reserve requirement ratios and interest rates as soon as possible, and launch the "Central Real Estate Stabilization Fund". In the medium and long term, China will be built into the world's largest consumer market, winning the global market discourse power with huge consumption potential. The second is to alleviate the difficulties of export related industries, stabilize the employment market, and strengthen the guarantee of people's livelihood. The third is to transform external pressures into driving forces for deepening reforms and increasing the potential growth rate of the economy. Further improve the structure of national income distribution. Deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and solve the problems of tight fiscal balance and debt in the short term. Deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, better support the development of the real economy, and increase residents' property income. In terms of fiscal policy, we can increase support for the consumption and social security sectors, and improve residents' willingness and security to consume through forms such as consumption vouchers and childcare subsidies; In terms of monetary policy, the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts can be appropriately advanced to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, further reduce corporate financing costs, better support the real economy, and support the stability of the real estate and stock markets Clearly stated. (New Society)