Economy

The first quarter meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee released three major signals

2025-03-24   

Regular meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as "the central bank") are regarded as "wind vanes" of monetary policy. Changes in the wording of monetary policy often indicate the trend of monetary policy in the next stage. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China recently held its first quarter meeting for 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the "Meeting"). Against the backdrop of complex and volatile economic environments both domestically and internationally, this meeting not only continues the main tone of the previous "moderately loose" monetary policy, but also further clarifies the innovative direction of structural regulation tools. The wording of the meeting on structural monetary policy tools, exchange rates, and other aspects has changed, and some key points have been repeatedly emphasized, which sends three policy signals: firstly, the main tone of the "moderately loose" monetary policy has not changed. The meeting reiterated that 'based on the domestic and international economic and financial situation and the operation of financial markets, we will take the opportunity to lower reserve requirement ratios and interest rates'. Choosing the right timing to lower reserve requirements and interest rates is not only an important manifestation of moderate monetary policy easing, but also an important means to achieve moderate easing. At present, the average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions is 6.6%, and there is still room for decline. The central bank's structural monetary policy tool, the funding rate, provided to commercial banks also has room for decline. The meeting also proposed to "promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs", while the statement of the previous quarter's meeting was "promote the stable and moderate reduction of enterprise financing and resident credit costs". In the past year, the central bank has adhered to a supportive monetary policy stance, increased countercyclical adjustment efforts, implemented monetary policy adjustments several times, promoted reasonable growth of monetary credit, and guided the comprehensive financing cost of society to decrease. The author believes that this year's policy is expected to support the real economy through "quantity and price adjustment", promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in society, further stimulate the credit demand of enterprises and residents, and activate market vitality. Secondly, innovation in structural monetary policy tools, with a focus on supporting areas such as technology, consumption, and foreign trade. A major highlight of the meeting was the proposal to optimize the policy of re lending for technological innovation and transformation, study the creation of new structural monetary policy tools, and focus on supporting investment and financing in the field of technological innovation, promoting consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade. The industry believes that before a comprehensive interest rate cut, the central bank may first lower the funding interest rates of some structural monetary policy tools through structural interest rate cuts, guide credit to be invested in key areas, and support the real economy. This is also consistent with the overall requirements of doing a good job in the "five major articles" of finance. Thirdly, we will continue to maintain the stable operation of financial markets such as the stock market, foreign exchange market, and bond market. In terms of maintaining the stability of the capital market, the meeting proposed to "make good use of the exchange convenience of securities, funds, and insurance companies, increase holdings through stock repurchases and refinancing, and explore normalized institutional arrangements", among which "explore normalized institutional arrangements" was added this time. As of March 18th, the two tools of securities, fund, and insurance company swap convenience and stock repurchase increase and refinancing have been implemented for five months. Among them, the swap convenience operation has been carried out twice, forming a pool of 40 alternative institutions; At the same time, about 400 A-share listed companies have disclosed a total of 420 stock repurchase and increase loan plans, effectively maintaining the stable operation of the capital market. In terms of stabilizing the exchange rate, the meeting proposed "three resolute measures", namely "resolutely correcting market pro cyclical behavior, resolutely dealing with behaviors that disrupt market order, and resolutely preventing exchange rate overshoot risks". Among them, "resolutely correcting market pro cyclical behavior" is a new statement, and the previous quarter emphasized "resolutely preventing the formation of unilateral consistent expectations and self realization". Since the beginning of this year, despite the increasing volatility of the US dollar index, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has remained relatively stable and its elasticity has significantly increased. In terms of the bond market, the relevant statement changed from "enrich and improve the monetary policy toolbox, carry out treasury bond trading, and focus on the change of long-term yield" in the last quarter to "observe and evaluate the operation of the bond market from the perspective of macro prudence, and focus on the change of long-term yield". At the end of last year, the yield of long-term bonds rapidly declined. Since the beginning of this year, factors such as the rebound in long-term bond yields and the "stock bond seesaw" effect have led to an increased willingness of institutions to reduce duration, resulting in increased volatility in long-term bond prices. This also indicates that there is still significant pressure on the current bond market adjustment. From the perspective of macro prudential management, there is still a need to observe and evaluate market risks, weaken and block risks. Overall, since the central bank launched a package of incremental financial policies in September last year, several monetary policy adjustments have effectively boosted market confidence and promoted stable economic growth. In the future, under a moderately loose tone, monetary policy will continue to deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, focusing on the "five major articles" of finance, increasing support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links, and promoting high-quality development of finance. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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