Economy

Short term bullish factors continue to ferment, international gold prices reach new historical highs

2025-03-17   

Recently, the main April contract for gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) hit a new high since its listing. In the view of multiple analysts, the international gold futures price has hit a historic high this time, mainly due to strong market risk aversion and lower than expected macroeconomic data in overseas markets; In the short term, the gold futures price will continue to fluctuate strongly, but investors should not blindly chase after the rise and should be cautious in holding gold assets. On March 14th Beijing time, COMEX gold futures hit a historic high of $3017 per ounce in the April contract, followed by a slight correction. In the eyes of analysts, short-term bullish factors are obvious, and futures prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. Cao Shanshan, a senior researcher at the Research Institute of COFCO Futures Co., Ltd., told reporters that the international gold price broke through the $3000 mark during trading mainly due to fluctuations in overseas geopolitical risks, which increased market risk aversion and supported the gold price to rise again. In addition, macroeconomic data from overseas markets fell short of expectations, affecting investors' predictions of global economic recovery. Overall, the dual positive factors have jointly driven up the price of gold. Wu Zijie, a precious metals researcher at Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd., also told reporters that the international gold price has reached a new historical high, mainly due to the fermentation of risk aversion and the significant intensification of trade frictions in overseas markets. In addition, the continuous weakening of macroeconomic data in the United States has raised concerns in the market that the United States will fall into an economic recession, thereby enhancing investors' risk aversion. It is expected that short-term bullish factors will continue to ferment, once again supporting the strong operation of gold prices, "said Wu Zijie. Since the beginning of this year, international gold prices have continued to fluctuate strongly, driving domestic investment enthusiasm. Recently, reporters learned from a futures company's Beijing branch that the company has added dozens of new gold traders this year, with nearly 10 new traders added since March alone. The general manager of the above-mentioned futures company branch told reporters: "Since the beginning of this month, the branch has added nearly 10 new trading gold customers, with a maximum capital of nearly 10 million yuan. From the perspective of trading direction, although the number of short customers is more than long, from the perspective of capital volume, long customers are significantly higher than short customers. At the same time, from the perspective of trading results, long customers are overall in a profitable state." Zhang Yingying, deputy director of derivatives business at COFCO Qidefeng (Beijing) Trading Co., Ltd., analyzed that the biggest short-term benefit for gold futures prices comes from the risk aversion caused by geopolitical risks, which not only promotes the enthusiasm for long positions in precious metals, but also has a positive effect on non-ferrous metals such as tin. At present, the strengthening trend of gold futures prices has not changed, and with the support of multiple favorable factors, prices will continue to operate at a high level, "said Zhang Yingying. On March 14th, multiple sectors of the domestic commodity futures market ended in a red trend, among which some precious metals and non-ferrous metals maintained strong trends, such as Shanghai Gold, Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Tin, International Copper and other futures varieties, with higher gains than other categories. Attention should be paid to the risk of pullback. Although international gold futures prices have reached a historic high, analysts advise investors to be aware of pullback risks and reduce their holdings or manage risks through derivative tools based on their own risk tolerance. Zhang Zhaoju, a senior researcher at the Research Institute of Jinxin Futures Co., Ltd., told reporters that the short-term international gold price will maintain a high volatility pattern, but there will be both upward and downward pressures. On the one hand, geopolitical factors will continue to support the strong operation of futures prices; On the other hand, macro level uncertainty will weaken the market's willingness to chase higher prices, resulting in a lack of sustained breakthrough momentum for gold prices. From a positive perspective, the market is still betting on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, and there is a possibility of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates supports the central valuation of gold, "said Zhang Zhaoju. Gold investors should adopt a diversified investment strategy and avoid holding heavy positions in a single asset Zhang Zhaoju believes that risk can be managed through derivatives such as futures and options, while also reducing the cost of investment capital occupation and avoiding excessive concentration of investment. Investors should manage risks based on their own risk tolerance, financial situation, holding time, and holding costs Cao Shanshan believes. Gold is an important part of the asset portfolio for both individual and institutional traders, and long-term holdings should be well allocated In Zhang Yingying's view, the international gold futures price has reached a historic high, and risk management for related precious metal industry enterprises is particularly important. It is recommended to comprehensively use various derivative tools for price risk management. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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