Golden Shield or Star Wars Trap? Trump's' Golden Dome Plan 'and the Real Strategic Dilemma
2025-03-14
On January 27th, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing the launch of the "Iron Dome for America" missile defense system construction plan. However, just one month later, the plan was renamed "Golden Dome for America", attracting widespread attention from the international community. This renaming not only reflects the political symbol preference of the Trump administration, but also reveals the complex dilemma of the US missile defense system in technology, strategy, and international political games. From "Iron Dome" to "Golden Dome": The political symbol and strategic intention of renaming. The renaming of the Trump administration's missile defense program is not accidental, but the result of multiple intertwined factors. Firstly, the name adjustment aims to distinguish itself from the Israeli "Iron Dome" system. The Israeli "Iron Dome" is mainly used to intercept short-range rockets and mortar shells, and its technical characteristics are fundamentally different from the positioning of the US plan to "cover the entire United States and defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles". Especially the name can easily cause confusion, as the order actually requires the use of Israel's defense system to defend the United States, but this is not the case. Missile defense experts unanimously believe that the 'Iron Dome' is not suitable for providing air and missile defense for vast territories like the mainland United States. The White House clearly wants to avoid public confusion while highlighting the "transcendence" of the US defense system. Secondly, "Golden Dome" implies Trump's personalized political symbol. Trump has always used gold as a symbol of power and luxury, frequently using gold elements in his private residences and political propaganda. Renaming "Jinqiong" not only caters to his personal aesthetic, but also attempts to strengthen people's confidence in national security and leadership through the imagery of the "golden age". This naming strategy is in line with Trump's style of "branding governance". The deeper strategic intention is to strengthen the legitimacy of space militarization. After the renaming, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) accelerated the deployment of space-based sensors and listed space interceptors as a "core capability". This move not only paves the way for technological upgrading, but also attempts to weaken the international community's questioning of the United States' replication of existing technology through the name "de Israelization", and instead highlight the "uniqueness" of its space military innovation. The technical architecture and implementation challenges of the "Golden Dome" plan. According to the executive order signed by Trump, the "Golden Dome" system needs to submit an architecture plan within 60 days. Its core objectives include defending against ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and cruise missiles; Deploying space-based tracking sensors; Develop a space-based interceptor with the ability to intercept during the boost phase. However, this grand vision faces multiple obstacles in implementation. Although the United States has deployed THAAD and Patriot systems in Guam and successfully tested interception, the difficulty of global defense on the mainland has increased exponentially. Taking Israel's "Iron Dome" as an example, its single system only covers about 390 square kilometers. If it covers the mainland of the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), more than 24000 sets would need to be deployed, with a cost of up to $2.5 trillion. The hypersonic missiles that the "Golden Dome" needs to deal with (such as the Russian "Vanguard") have the ability to change orbits, and existing interception technologies are difficult to effectively track. In addition, the development of space-based interceptors is still in the conceptual stage, and their kinetic energy killing technology (such as electromagnetic guns or laser weapons) is far from mature. The bottleneck of funding and production has led to a fatal weakness in the production capacity of the US military industry. Taking the Patriot missile as an example, its production cycle takes several years, while the Golden Dome program requires the rapid deployment of tens of thousands of systems. Although the Missile Defense Agency has proposed "innovative procurement methods," feedback from arms companies shows that supply chain disruptions and shortages of high skilled labor are difficult to solve in the short term. At the same time, Trump's fiscal policy has exacerbated the capital risk: his deficit in office is close to $2 trillion, and the credit rating of treasury bond has been downgraded. If investors are worried about the risk of US debt default, the rise in interest rates will directly squeeze the defense budget. Geopolitical countermeasures: Russia has clearly condemned the "Golden Dome" plan, calling it "disrupting the nuclear balance" and "promoting the militarization of space". If the United States insists on deploying space-based weapons, it may trigger a new round of arms race: China and Russia may accelerate the development of anti satellite weapons and hypersonic missiles, further weakening the defense effectiveness of the "Golden Dome". In addition, European allies are increasingly dissatisfied with the pressure to share military expenses, which may affect the coordination of the global missile defense network. The space force will play a "core role" in the "Golden Dome". According to senior officials of the US Space Force, the Space Force will play a "core role" in the Pentagon's efforts to develop the Homeland Missile Defense Shield or the "US Golden Dome" (formerly known as the "US Iron Dome"). The head of space operations, Chance Saltzman, recently stated, "I believe we can play a central role." "We are inclined to establish this technology IPT in order to start considering it from an overall perspective." In response to the "Golden Dome" program, the Space Force has established a dedicated team to accelerate the program. It is worth noting that the core innovation of this plan is to elevate space power from an auxiliary role to a pillar of the defense system, manifested in two directions. Establishing an Integrated Planning Team (IPT), Chance Salzman told reporters that given the executive order's emphasis on space systems, the Space Force will naturally play a key role in its development, and added that the service has already established an IPT to explore options in response to the order. We are currently evaluating what systems the Space Force has developed to support the President's orders and what capabilities need to be established. It is exploring issues related to technical feasibility and drafting cost estimates based on current plans, as well as predicting requirements for more advanced architectures. The "Full Time and Global Coverage" plan for space-based monitoring networks requires the accelerated deployment of "Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensors" (HBTSS) to achieve real-time monitoring of missile launches through a group of low orbit satellites. Compared with existing land-based radars, space-based sensors can shorten warning time by about 50% and provide critical data for interception during the boost phase. The US Space Force has launched the "Tracking Layer" project, planning to launch over 100 satellites by 2027 to form a global monitoring network. The "first line of defense" booster phase interception of space-based interceptors is considered the most effective anti missile means, as the missile has a low speed and has not released a warhead at this time. Space based interceptors can carry kinetic energy impact or laser weapons to carry out destruction during the missile's ascent phase. However, this technology faces two major challenges: firstly, the interception window is extremely short (usually less than 5 minutes), requiring ultra high speed computation and response; Secondly, the deployment cost is high, with a single interception satellite costing over 1 billion US dollars. Can the 'Golden Dome' ensure the security of the United States? President Trump's "Iron Dome" missile defense shield was quickly changed to "Gold Dome". This billionaire president, known for his passion for incorporating golden details into his residential aesthetics, promised in the opening remarks of his inauguration speech to usher in a 'golden age' for America. Although the Trump administration portrays the "Golden Dome" as the "ultimate shield," its actual effectiveness faces multiple questions: firstly, technological limitations and an imbalance in offensive and defensive costs. The defense system always faces the dilemma of 'spear is better than shield'. Taking hypersonic missiles as an example, their breakthrough cost is much lower than the construction cost of interception systems. Rand Corporation simulations show that if the enemy launches a saturation attack (simultaneously launching over 50 missiles), even if the interception success rate reaches 90%, there are still 5 missiles that can break through the defense, enough to cause a catastrophic strike. In addition, the popularity of decoy rounds and mobile warheads has further reduced the probability of interception. Secondly, political risks and trust crises. Trump's fiscal policy and treasury bond credit crisis may shake the capital base of the "Golden Dome". If the US bond interest rate rises by 3-4 percentage points due to political turmoil, the defense budget will be forced to be reduced, resulting in project delays or reductions. In addition, the Trump administration's disregard for international arms control agreements, such as withdrawing from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, has weakened the global nuclear balance and instead stimulated adversaries to enhance missile technology. Once again, the strategic backlash of space militarization. The deployment of space-based weapons may trigger strategic reactions or chain reactions. The United States' attempt to gain space advantage through the deployment of space-based weapons may prompt other countries to develop anti satellite capabilities, making the space environment more complex and dangerous, ultimately making space a "barrier free battlefield". The 2023 Russian "Nudor" anti satellite missile test has proven that the technological threshold for destroying low orbit satellite swarms is decreasing. Once the space-based system is destroyed, the 'Golden Dome' will be instantly paralyzed. The "Golden Shield" and the real strategic dilemma. The Trump administration's "Golden Dome" plan, packaged in symbolic "Golden Shield," attempts to reshape America's security hegemony through technological innovation and space militarization. However, behind this grand vision lie multiple strategic dilemmas, highlighting the profound contradiction between ideals and reality. The technological shortcomings, fiscal risks, and international countermeasures together form a constraining 'triangle'. Historical experience has shown that the pursuit of absolute security often leads to greater insecurity - the Reagan era Star Wars program ultimately failed due to technological and economic pressures, while the Golden Dome may repeat the same mistake. From this perspective, the pursuit of absolute security through militarization may lead to greater insecurity. True strategic stability relies on multilateral dialogue, arms control agreements, and risk management mechanisms, rather than unilateral arms races. If the United States continues to invest resources in arms race rather than diplomatic dialogue and risk management, then even though the "Golden Dome" plan is perfect, it will eventually become a fragile and costly "empty dome". (New Society)
Edit:Ou Xiaoling Responsible editor:Shu Hua
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