Recently, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has shown a fluctuating upward trend. According to Wind data, as of the close on March 12th, the onshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 0.54% in March, and at one point rebounded from around the "7.3" level to around the "7.2" level. Over time, compared to the lowest point of this year (7.3326), the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has rebounded by about 1.19%. The offshore RMB against the US dollar also showed a similar trend, with the offshore RMB against the US dollar rising by 0.93% as of the close on March 11th. In recent trading days, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has fluctuated upwards, mainly due to the significant decline in the US dollar index. Recently, non US currencies have generally appreciated, and the Chinese yuan has also risen accordingly Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, stated in an interview with reporters. Zhu Hualei, Senior Investment Advisor of Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Information Co., Ltd., told reporters that the US dollar index has recently fallen to a low point of the year. Due to Wall Street's increasing concerns about the "Trump recession", investment institutions have reduced their long positions in the US dollar and correspondingly increased their long positions in offshore RMB, driving the recovery of the RMB exchange rate. In addition, international investment banks such as Goldman Sachs are optimistic about the rise of AI technology in China, which is expected to attract more overseas capital to invest in Chinese assets, increase demand for the renminbi in the foreign exchange market, and to some extent promote the appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate. It is worth mentioning that during the period of severe fluctuations in the US dollar index, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is relatively small. Taking the week from March 3rd to March 7th as an example, the US dollar index fell by 3.41%, while the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.63% against the US dollar. Wang Qing stated that the recent significant decline in the US dollar index and limited appreciation of the renminbi are mainly due to the fact that the central parity rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has not changed much during this period. On the one hand, this helps to control the volatility of the RMB against the US dollar, stabilize market expectations, and also moderately release depreciation pressure, enhancing the resilience of the RMB in the later stage. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on March 12th, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar was 7.1696, an increase of 45 basis points from the previous trading day. Since March, the central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has been trading at a low of 7.1745 and a high of 7.1692, with little change. Wang Qing believes that the recent sharp decline in the US dollar and US stocks is due to a series of unexpected US economic data, including consumption. Against the backdrop of the significant depreciation of the US dollar and the basic stability of the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have been steadily rising recently. In the short term, the risk of fluctuations in the US dollar has increased, and there may still be some room for appreciation of the Chinese yuan. This year's Government Work Report proposes to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Zhu Hualei stated that this year's Government Work Report proposes "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "implementing a more proactive fiscal policy", which are expected to promote sustained improvement in China's economic fundamentals, enhance market confidence in the renminbi, and provide solid fundamental support for the renminbi exchange rate. Wang Qing also believes that more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to continue to boost economic growth momentum in the later stage, which will help enhance the resilience of the renminbi in the volatile global currency market. (New Society)