Economy

What are the considerations for China's GDP growth target this year, which is around 5%?

2025-03-06   

The government work report released on the 5th set the expected target for China's economic growth rate this year at "around 5%", which is also the third consecutive year that China will maintain this arrangement from 2023. Analysts here believe that this move is both necessary and feasible, reflecting multiple considerations behind it. Firstly, stabilize the overall economic situation and boost confidence in development. Riding a bicycle requires maintaining a certain speed to avoid losing balance. The same applies to economic development. At present, the Chinese economy has shown a significant recovery, but it also faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand, difficulties in production and operation of some enterprises, and deepening adverse external environmental impacts. Whether dealing with the uncertainty of the external environment, preventing and resolving risks in key areas, or stabilizing employment and increasing residents' income, it is necessary to maintain a certain level of economic growth. Only with development can we talk about high-quality development; With incremental growth, taking into account diverse needs is essential to have a solid foundation. Setting an economic growth rate of around 5% is also necessary to further stabilize expectations and boost confidence. Last year, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded RMB 134 trillion, and the economic growth was equivalent to the annual economic volume of a medium-sized country. On this basis, an increase of about 5% is expected, which is quite substantial in scale. The clear guidance of facing difficulties and striving for success is evident from this. As a "baton", setting the economic growth target at a relatively positive level will drive various fields of economic policies to actively advance, which will help to effectively boost the confidence of the whole society. Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Institute at Tsinghua University, said that setting this indicator is "the biggest expected guidance in itself", allowing all parties to see the certainty of China's economic growth this year, and also maintaining expectations for China's macroeconomic regulation and related policies this year. Secondly, it should be aligned with medium and long-term goals. The setting of economic growth targets cannot be based solely on the current year. In addition to considering the base of the previous year, it is also necessary to take into account sustainable development in the future and try to avoid fluctuations between years. China plans to basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035. Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center at Peking University, said in an interview with China News Service that according to estimates, in order to achieve this goal, China's average annual economic growth rate should be above 4.7% from now until 2035. Striving to achieve relatively high growth in the early stage can avoid pressure and delay, and win more initiative to achieve the established goals. Thirdly, achieving the goal has a foundation and confidence. Despite the overall slowdown in global economic growth, China's economy still recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 5% last year, ranking among the top in the world's major economies. Currently, China's consumer investment is accelerating, market activity is increasing, and confidence expectations are also strengthening. These positive changes have laid the foundation for achieving a year-on-year growth of around 5% in the economy this year. The advantages of China's super large market and complete industrial system have also been further consolidated. This means that China has the confidence to cope with the increasingly complex and severe external environment. As Dong Yu said, the target for China's economic growth rate is based on the analysis of major macroeconomic fields and data, and requires objective and practical analysis and prediction. In other words, the target of "around 5%" has economic growth potential and favorable conditions to support it, and is within the achievable range of that year. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:CNS.cn

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