Economy

The overall level of economic prosperity has rebounded

2025-03-04   

On March 1st, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry rebounded significantly to 50.2%, while the Non Manufacturing Business Activity Index and the Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.4% and 51.1%, respectively. Experts say that all three major indices are in the expansion range, and the overall level of China's economic prosperity has rebounded. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced that in February, with the resumption of work and production by enterprises after the Spring Festival and the acceleration of production and operation activities, the manufacturing PMI significantly rebounded, rising 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and returning to the expansion zone. ——The production and demand index both rebounded. The production index and new order index were 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, up 2.7 and 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, both rising to the expansion range, indicating a significant improvement in manufacturing production and demand. From an industry perspective, the two indices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, general equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, etc. are both at 54.0% or above, and the related industries have released production and demand quickly, "Zhao Qinghe said." Driven by the recovery of production and demand, the purchasing willingness of enterprises has increased, and the purchasing volume index is 52.1%, up 2.9 percentage points from last month. "- The price index continues to rise. The main raw material purchase price index was 50.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of manufacturing raw material purchase prices has rebounded. ——The PMI of large enterprises has returned to the expansion range. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production by large enterprises has progressed rapidly, and the economic situation has significantly rebounded. The PMI of large enterprises is 52.5%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. ——The PMI of key industries has increased to varying degrees. The PMI for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries were 50.8% and 50.9%, respectively, up 0.6 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, both in the expansion range. According to Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, the changes in sub indices show that after the Spring Festival, the manufacturing industry resumed work and production quickly, market demand generally rebounded, production and procurement activities increased significantly, raw material prices rebounded, the downward trend in finished product prices narrowed, and the supporting role of large enterprises steadily strengthened. Enterprise expectations are relatively optimistic, and the manufacturing industry as a whole has rebounded positively. The non manufacturing business activity index rebounded in February, with a non manufacturing business activity index of 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non manufacturing industry continued to expand. In the first two months, it has been operating at over 50%, indicating that non manufacturing business activities have continued to expand since the beginning of this year, and the growth rate has slightly accelerated compared to last month. According to Wu Wei, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, by industry, the release of investment related demand has driven the acceleration of construction activities, and the demand for social financing has been significantly released. Residents' travel and cultural tourism consumption have performed well, and new energy related industries continue to be active. Zhao Qinghe introduced that from an industry perspective, the business activity index of industries such as air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and capital market services are all in the high prosperity range of 55.0% or above, and the total business volume is growing rapidly. Affected by factors such as concentrated pre holiday purchasing and the fading of holiday effects after the holiday, the business activity index of retail, accommodation, catering and other industries related to residents' consumption has fallen significantly. With the warming weather in some areas after the Spring Festival, investment projects starting one after another, and enterprises gradually resuming production, the business activity index of the construction industry has increased by 3.4 percentage points compared to last month Zhao Qinghe stated that the business activity index of the civil engineering and construction industry was 65.1%, with a significant increase, indicating that the construction progress of infrastructure projects has accelerated after the holiday. From the perspective of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index is 56.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has remained in a relatively prosperous range for five consecutive months. The expected index of business activities in the construction industry is 54.7%. Most non manufacturing enterprises have optimistic market expectations. In addition, there is a clear release of social financing demand, and financial related activities are active. Wu Wei introduced that in February, the business activity index and new order index of the financial industry both increased to varying degrees compared to the previous month, and both were above 55%, indicating a significant release of social financing demand and continued strengthening of financial support for the real economy. Under the guidance of a moderately loose monetary policy, the optimization of bank credit and the steady recovery of the capital market will support the sustained release of effective financing demand in the real economy. It is expected that market supply and demand will continue to expand. In February, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded significantly and returned to the boom bust line, which is influenced by seasonal factors and indicates that the Chinese economy is showing a trend of recovery. "Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the production index, procurement volume index, and price index have all shown a significant rebound, indicating that enterprise production and operation activities have been fully launched after the Spring Festival, and the effect of incremental policies is more obvious. Wen Tao believes that the implementation of policy combinations has been effective, coupled with the rapid resumption of work and production after the holiday, and market demand has generally rebounded. In February, the stock policies and a package of incremental policies implemented earlier continued to be strengthened, the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference was continuously implemented, and the policy combination effect continued to play a role. In addition, various industries resumed work and production quickly in early February, and several factors drove the manufacturing market demand to recover relatively well. "Wen Tao said," Overall, the market demand in February showed a generally positive trend, and the endogenous driving force of the economy tended to consolidate. "Zhang Liqun analyzed that although the order index has rebounded, the problem of insufficient demand is still prominent due to factors such as production preparation after the Spring Festival to a large extent. We should continue to increase the countercyclical adjustment of macro policies, strengthen the effective role of government public product investment in expanding enterprise orders, and accelerate the consolidation of the positive trend of economic recovery. Looking ahead to the future, Wen Tao said that the current foundation of China's economic operation is good, and the super large market and innovative development continue to inject strong impetus into the manufacturing industry. A complete industrial chain and supply chain provide guarantees for the development of the manufacturing industry, and the policy combination provides support and guidance for the development of the manufacturing industry. It is expected that market supply and demand will continue to expand, especially with new driving forces maintaining rapid growth, further empowering high-quality economic development

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:People's Daily

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