The issuance of local bonds has achieved a "good start". According to data from Wind Information, in the first two months of this year, a total of 1,863.296 billion yuan worth of local bonds were issued nationwide, reaching a new high in the past three years (944.411 billion yuan in the same period in 2024 and 1,219.631 billion yuan in 2023), showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year.

"Since the beginning of this year, thanks to the pilot of the 'self-examination and self-issuance' of special bond projects, which has improved the issuance efficiency, and the acceleration of the replacement of existing implicit debts by local governments, the issuance of local bonds, especially newly added special bonds and refinancing special bonds, has significantly accelerated," Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily. This is helpful for expanding effective investment and reducing local financial pressure.

In December 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Optimizing and Improving the Management Mechanism of Local Government Special Bonds", proposing to "carry out the pilot of 'self-examination and self-issuance' of special bond projects", delegating the examination and approval authority of special bond projects, and selecting some provinces with a good management foundation and regions undertaking major national strategies to carry out the pilot of "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bond projects to support major economic provinces in playing a leading role. Eleven regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province (including Ningbo), Anhui Province, Fujian Province (including Xiamen), Shandong Province (including Qingdao), Hunan Province, Guangdong Province (including Shenzhen), Sichuan Province, and Hebei Xiongan New Area, have become the pilot regions for the "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bond projects.

The reporter noticed that since the start of 2025, the pilot regions have continuously promoted the implementation of the "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bond projects.

For example, according to the website of the People's Government of Sichuan Province, on February 7th, Sichuan clearly stated at the provincial bond project management work conference that it is necessary to carry out the pilot work of "self-examination and self-issuance" of local government special bond projects well. It should adhere to the principle that project application is mainly the responsibility of relevant departments and project implementation is mainly the responsibility of local governments. Give full play to the advantages of industry departments in understanding policies and managing business, highlight key industries and scientific and technological innovation, strengthen the planning and management of bond projects, and improve the quality of project implementation and the efficiency of government investment.

Another example is that the "Report on the Implementation of the Budget in 2024 and the Budget in 2025 of Beijing" released on the website of the People's Government of Beijing on January 25th proposed in the part of effectively doing a good job in the reform of financial management in 2025 that "give play to the advantage of the low financing cost of government bonds and make good use of the pilot policy of 'self-examination and self-issuance' of special bonds" and "carry out the pilot of 'self-examination and self-issuance' of government special bond projects to promote the efficient implementation of projects".

Judging from the data, the scale of newly added special bonds issued by various regions in the first two months of this year reached 596.785 billion yuan, accounting for 32% of the total issuance of local bonds, which is also larger than the scale of 403.370 billion yuan in the same period in 2024.

The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year proposed that "a more proactive fiscal policy should be implemented" and clearly stated that "increase the issuance and use of local government special bonds, and expand the scope of investment areas and the scope of use as project capital". Zhang Yiqun, Director and Researcher of the Jilin Institute of Fiscal Science, told the reporter that the more proactive fiscal policy implemented by the country this year will be significantly different from the previous ones. One of its characteristics is "fast action". Judging from recent indicators such as the issuance of bonds in various regions, the progress of fixed asset investment, and the economic trend, there is a high probability of achieving a "good start" in the national economy in the first quarter, and the potential for economic growth is expected to be effectively released.

In terms of the issuance structure, in addition to the relatively large proportion of newly added special bonds, the scale of refinancing special bonds issued by various regions in the first two months of this year for the replacement of existing implicit debts is also relatively large, reaching 954.240 billion yuan, accounting for about 51.2% of the total issuance of local bonds.

"From the overall progress, the issuance of refinancing special bonds for the replacement of existing implicit debts has been accelerated," Wen Bin said. Its policy effects are also gradually emerging. For example, the regional financial environment has been significantly improved, the implementation of the replacement policy has created more space for local governments to support domestic demand, and the local capital chain has been further unblocked.

In addition, Wen Bin predicted that the issuance of local bonds in March will remain at a high level. As of the end of February, 22 provinces and cities specifically designated in the state plan have announced their local bond issuance plans for March, with the scale of newly added local bonds being 418.5 billion yuan. Considering that the planned repayment scale of local bonds in March is 99.6 billion yuan, and against the backdrop of the accelerated debt resolution of local governments, the remaining quota of about 1,045.8 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds for the replacement of existing implicit debts is expected to be issued intensively in March, and newly added local bonds are likely to be mainly arranged for issuance in the second and third quarters. It is expected that the overall issuance scale of local bonds in March will be around 1,550 billion yuan, an increase of about 900 billion yuan compared to the same period last year.