The National Bureau of Statistics released housing price data for 70 large and medium-sized cities in January yesterday (19th). In the first month of 2025, although affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of housing prices remained good. New housing prices in first and second tier cities continued to rise month on month, and real estate companies' confidence gradually recovered. Analysts believe that in the future, with the continued implementation of favorable policies and market self-regulation, the positive recovery of trading volume will guide prices to stabilize and improve, and the real estate market is expected to experience a "small spring" in March. The prices of new houses continue to rise, and the confidence of real estate companies has improved. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January, the prices of new houses in first tier cities increased by 0.1% month on month. Although the increase has slowed down compared to last month due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, it still maintains an upward trend. The prices of new houses in first tier cities will shift from a month on month decline to a flat trend in November 2024, and from a flat trend to an upward trend in December, achieving a "two consecutive increases" in January 2025. At the same time, in January, the prices of new houses in second tier cities increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, marking the first increase since June 2023. In January, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, 24 cities saw a month on month increase in new house prices, an increase of 1 city compared to the previous month. The off-season is not easy Zhang Bo, the director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said that in previous years, it was the off-season of the market before the Spring Festival, and the popularity declined significantly. However, this year, the market popularity still remains at a certain high level. Among them, the upward momentum of housing prices for improved new houses is stronger. According to data from 66 key cities monitored by Anjuke, the popularity of four bedroom and above apartments with an area of 120-150 square meters, 150-200 square meters, and over 200 square meters has maintained an upward trend. The prices of new homes with an area of 144 square meters or more in multiple cities, including Shanghai, Tianjin, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, have increased significantly. Improvement oriented demand maintains an upward trend, maintains good resilience, and will continue this year, "said Zhang Bo. According to Guan Rongxue, senior analyst at Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute, since the "9.26" Politburo meeting set the tone of "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", market expectations have improved, and the trend of new housing prices continues to improve and repair, with the number of cities experiencing price increases gradually increasing. At the same time, the confidence of real estate companies is gradually improving, and the supply of high-quality projects has also given new housing prices an upward momentum She said, "It is expected that under the guidance of policy support and positive recovery in transactions, prices will continue to steadily recover." The trend of the real estate market is differentiated, and first - and second tier cities will be the first to enter the "stop falling and stabilize" stage. Although the overall trend of housing prices has continued to improve month on month, various tier cities are not "advancing in parallel", but have obvious differentiation. During the rise in new housing prices in first - and second tier cities, the prices of new and second-hand houses in third tier cities decreased by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively month on month in January, with the same decline as the previous month. Market differentiation continues Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, stated that in the past four months, due to strong demand and relatively firm housing prices in first tier and some second tier cities, first tier cities have continuously improved for several months; However, in most third - and fourth tier cities, due to high inventory pressure, housing prices continue to adjust. In January, the month on month growth rate of new houses in Nanjing and Chengdu continued to lead, with both rising by 0.7% and an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; New housing prices in core cities such as Wuhan, Chongqing, and Tianjin have also achieved positive month on month growth; Among first tier cities, Shanghai's new housing prices have continued to grow positively month on month since June 2022, with a continuous increase of 32 months on month. The strong trend of housing prices is supported by the popularity of luxury homes... However, most third tier cities have shown a downward trend on a month on month basis, with Beihai, Dandong, and Hohhot ranking among the top three in terms of month on month decline, all falling by 0.6%. Zhang Bo believes that under the pattern of differentiation, the resilience of high-quality sectors in core cities will become the main support point for the market in 2025. The real estate market in first and second tier hot cities has completed the bottoming out process and is in the stage of recovery, steadily entering the "stop falling and stabilize" stage. Overall, the market is gradually recovering by 2025, and hot cities are expected to experience a small spring. Attention should be paid to the differentiation of different cities, but the overall direction of the market's stabilization remains unchanged He said. Zhang Dawei stated that in recent months, there have been continuous measures to stop the decline and stabilize the real estate market, and there are signs of stabilization in the current market. Looking ahead to the future, the heat of the real estate market will continue, but relevant departments still need to introduce more powerful support policies, and the market is expected to see a "small spring" in March. (New Society)