The trend of stabilizing the real estate market continues, and the "Little Spring" market in core cities is expected to continue
2025-02-07
Recently, many places have successively disclosed the transaction data of the real estate market in January 2025, which overall continues the trend of stabilizing and stopping the decline. According to statistics from Shanghai E-house Real Estate Research Institute, from January 1 to 21, 2025, the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential properties in 20 key cities across the country was 5.58 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Among them, the performance of the real estate market in first tier cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen is particularly impressive, with both new and second-hand housing transactions achieving year-on-year growth. According to data released by the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau on February 4th, nearly 10000 new and second-hand residential properties were sold in Shenzhen in January, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The market is experiencing a "daily boom", with the premium rate for the first residential land transaction exceeding 70%. According to the data released by the Guangzhou Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, the online signing volume of newly-built commercial housing in Guangzhou in January 2025 was 5305 sets, a year-on-year increase of 48% compared to 3581 sets in January 2024. According to data from the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association, in January 2025 (with a statistical period from December 26, 2024 to January 25, 2025), there were 10038 online signings for second-hand residential properties in Guangzhou, covering an area of 1.0122 million square meters. Thanks to the continuous stimulus of heavy policies, the pace of citizens entering the market has significantly accelerated compared to the same period last year. Along with the year-on-year increase in transaction volume, the prices of newly-built residential properties have also shown a trend of stabilization. According to statistics from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, in January 2025, the average price of newly built residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 16693 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.23% month on month and 2.76% year-on-year. Among them, the price of newly-built residential buildings in first tier cities increased by 0.36% month on month and 6.01% year-on-year. Yan Yuejin, Vice President of Shanghai E-house Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the performance of the real estate market in January 2025 continues the positive development trend since the fourth quarter of 2024, and is comprehensive and sustainable. Key cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen have shown impressive performance in the real estate market at the beginning of the year, which has a good guiding role in future market expectations. The stable and positive trend of the national real estate market will be more prominent. To promote the stabilization of the real estate market, many regions have further optimized relevant policies. According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, in January, over 50 policies related to the real estate sector were introduced across the country, with many cities holding housing fairs and increasing subsidies for home purchases. For example, on January 26, the General Office of the People's Government of Guizhou Province issued the "Several Measures to Achieve a Good Start in the Economic Work of the Whole Province in the First Quarter of 2025", proposing to make every effort to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. Encourage various regions to implement policies tailored to the city, such as issuing housing subsidies, paying deed tax and returning consumption vouchers, and promoting Spring Festival sales, to promote residents' rigid and improved housing needs. On the basis of the adjustment and optimization of real estate policies in 2024, various regions will continue to maintain relaxed housing purchase policies and environments in 2025, further promoting housing consumption Yan Yuejin stated that 2025 is a crucial year for continuing to do a good job in "exploring potential" and "continuously exerting efforts", and it will also be a crucial year for optimizing the effects of policies such as purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage interest rates to continue to be released. Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department of the China Index Research Institute, also believes that overall, the policy environment for the real estate market will remain loose in 2025. Various regions are expected to continue optimizing real estate policies from the aspects of promoting demand and optimizing supply, such as increasing subsidies for residents to purchase houses, accelerating the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, and continuing to optimize restrictive policies for purchasing houses in first tier cities. If various policies can be implemented quickly and effectively, the market is expected to continue stabilizing in the first quarter, and the market situation in the core city of 'Xiaoyangchun' is promising
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Securities Daily
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