Economy

Financial support for the real economy is strong and effective, and the balance of international payments is basically balanced

2025-01-15   

On the 14th, the State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on the achievements of China's high-quality economic development, introducing the relevant situation of financial support for high-quality economic development. Xuan Changneng, Vice President of the People's Bank of China, said that in 2024, the People's Bank of China adhered to a supportive monetary policy stance and implemented four major monetary policy adjustments, helping the economy to maintain a recovery trend and support high-quality economic development. Overall, the monetary policy in 2024 has achieved good results. The total financial volume has grown reasonably. At the end of December last year, the scale of social financing increased by 8.0% year-on-year, the M2 of broad money increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the RMB loans increased by 7.6% year-on-year, all of which were higher than the nominal economic growth rate. The loan interest rate has steadily declined. In December last year, the interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was about 3.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The interest rate for personal housing loans was about 3.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.88 percentage points. The credit structure continues to optimize, with medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry increasing by 11.9% year-on-year, loans for specialized, refined, and new enterprises increasing by 13.0% year-on-year, and inclusive small and micro loans increasing by 14.6% year-on-year, continuing to be higher than the growth rate of all loans during the same period. The RMB exchange rate remains relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level, with a stable exchange rate of around 100 against a basket of currencies, taking into account both internal and external balance. The foreign exchange management work in 2024 has also achieved positive results. Cross border trade and investment have become more active. In 2024, the total foreign income and expenditure of non bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals reached $14.3 trillion, an increase of 14.6% compared to 2023, setting a new historical high in scale. The trading volume of the domestic RMB and foreign exchange market exceeded $41 trillion, an increase of 14.8% compared to 2023. The international balance of payments remains basically balanced, with a current account surplus of 241.3 billion US dollars in the first three quarters of 2024, which is 1.8% of China's gross domestic product and is within the internationally recognized equilibrium range. Preliminary estimates suggest that the current account will still maintain a reasonable surplus in the fourth quarter. China's outward investment has grown rapidly, with the stock of foreign assets exceeding 10 trillion US dollars for the first time by the end of September 2024. There has been a net inflow of capital for direct investment in China and securities investment in China. The balance of foreign exchange reserves remains stable at over 3.2 trillion US dollars, and the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated that in the coming period, the trend of China's economy stabilizing and improving will be further consolidated, the overall balance of international payments will not change, the resilience of the foreign exchange market will continue to strengthen, and the RMB exchange rate is fully capable of maintaining basic stability. Regarding the RMB exchange rate, Xuan Changneng believes that in 2024, the international situation is complex and changing, and multiple factors are driving the volatility and strength of the US dollar index. The Chinese foreign exchange market has shown great resilience, and the RMB exchange rate has generally shown a two-way fluctuation trend, maintaining basic stability in complex situations and performing well among major currencies. This has created favorable conditions for China to independently implement monetary policies and played a positive role in stabilizing the economy and foreign trade. The capital market is not only a "barometer" of confidence, but also an important channel for financial resource allocation, closely related to economic development. "Considering that the current regulatory provisions do not allow enterprises to purchase stocks with loans, and relevant securities institutions also face the problem of insufficient funds, the People's Bank of China has created two tools to support the stable development of the capital market, hoping to improve the financing capacity and investment capacity of relevant institutions, and create conditions and provide incentives for these institutions to continue to implement the new management requirements." Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that by the end of 2024, the cumulative operation of swap facilities for securities, funds, and insurance companies had exceeded 100 billion yuan. Financial institutions have signed stock repurchase and shareholding increase loan contracts with more than 700 listed companies or major shareholders, with an amount of more than 30 billion yuan. In 2024, the market wide disclosure of the upper limit of repurchase and shareholding increase plans was close to 300 billion yuan. In response to the recent rapid decline in the yield of long-term treasury bond, Zou Lan said that since the coupon rate of long-term treasury bond is fixed, changes in the market's expected interest rate will cause fluctuations in the transaction price of the secondary market, and sometimes the volatility will be relatively large, so investing in treasury bond is not without risks. Zou Lan said that, considering that the development of China's bond market is relatively short and has not experienced major setbacks, not all investors, managers, especially the public, are familiar with the market price risk hidden behind the high investment return of government bonds. Therefore, the People's Bank of China has strengthened macro prudential management, repeatedly warned of risks, strengthened market supervision, suspended buying operations in the secondary market during periods of low issuance in the primary market, and instead used other tools to inject liquidity. This can avoid affecting investors' allocation needs, exacerbating supply and demand contradictions, and market fluctuations. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Economic Daily

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