Implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year
2025-01-15
On January 14, the Information Office of the State Council held a series of press conferences on "China's high-quality economic development results". Xuan Changneng, Vice President of the People's Bank of China, Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and others introduced the financial support for high-quality economic development. In 2024, the People's Bank of China adhered to a supportive monetary policy stance and implemented significant monetary policy adjustments four times, helping the economy maintain a positive trend and supporting high-quality economic development. Overall, the monetary policy achieved good results last year, mainly reflected in four aspects: overall, maintaining stable growth of monetary credit. Comprehensively utilizing various monetary policy tools, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promoting the reasonable growth of social financing scale and monetary credit, and guiding loan interest rates to continue to decline. Last year, the statutory reserve requirement ratio was lowered twice by a total of 1 percentage point, and the central bank policy interest rate was lowered twice by a total of 0.3 percentage points, both of which were the largest in recent years. Structurally, increase support for key areas. Establish a 500 billion yuan technology innovation and technological transformation re loan, effectively guiding financial institutions to increase their first loan to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as financial support for technology transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas. We have launched 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing, abolished the lower limit of housing loan interest rate policy, and promoted the further reduction of existing housing loan interest rates, reducing borrowers' housing loan interest expenses by about 150 billion yuan per year. Both supply and demand sides are simultaneously making efforts to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Two capital market support tools have also been established to effectively improve capital market expectations. In terms of transmission, clear the channel for policy interest rate transmission. Clearly stating the main policy interest rates and gradually streamlining the transmission relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates. In terms of exchange rate, the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate has been maintained at a reasonable and balanced level under complex circumstances. Data shows that in 2024, China's financial aggregate will grow reasonably. As of the end of December, the scale of social financing has increased by 8.0% year-on-year, the broad money (M2) has increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and RMB loans have increased by 7.6% year-on-year, all of which are higher than the nominal economic growth rate. The loan interest rate has steadily declined. In December, the interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was about 3.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The interest rate for personal housing loans was about 3.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.88 percentage points. The credit structure continues to optimize, with medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry increasing by 11.9% year-on-year, loans for specialized, refined, and new enterprises increasing by 13.0% year-on-year, and inclusive small and micro loans increasing by 14.6% year-on-year, continuing to be higher than the growth rate of all loans during the same period. The RMB exchange rate remains relatively stable at a reasonable and balanced level, with a stable exchange rate of around 100 against a basket of currencies, taking into account both internal and external balance. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy by 2025 Xuan Changneng introduced that in the next stage, macroeconomic policies will further strengthen countercyclical regulation. The People's Bank of China will adjust and optimize policy intensity and pace according to the domestic and international economic and financial situation and financial market operation, and support the achievement of the annual economic and social development goals. By comprehensively utilizing various monetary policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, we aim to maintain ample liquidity and ensure a relaxed social financing environment. Strengthen the implementation of interest rate policies, while maintaining the healthy operation of the financial industry, and further reduce the comprehensive financing costs of society. Scientifically utilize structural monetary policy tools and give full play to the dual functions of both quantity and structure of monetary policy tools. Continue to take comprehensive measures to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Overall, good results have been achieved in foreign exchange management in 2024, "said Li Bin." In the past year, the high-level opening up of the foreign exchange field and the facilitation reform of cross-border trade investment and financing have continued to advance. In 2024, China's cross-border trade and investment will become more active, with non bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals receiving a total of $14.3 trillion in foreign-related income and expenditure, an increase of 14.6% compared to 2023, setting a new historical high in scale. The trading volume of the domestic RMB foreign exchange market will exceed $41 trillion, an increase of 14.8% compared to 2023; The international balance of payments remains basically balanced, with a current account surplus of 241.3 billion US dollars in the first three quarters of 2024, which is 1.8% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and is within the internationally recognized equilibrium range. Preliminary estimates suggest that the current account will still maintain a reasonable surplus in the fourth quarter; Outward investment has grown rapidly, with the stock of foreign assets exceeding 10 trillion US dollars for the first time by the end of September 2024. Funds such as direct investment capital and securities investment in China have maintained a net inflow. The balance of foreign exchange reserves remains stable at over 3.2 trillion US dollars, and the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The reform and opening up in the foreign exchange field continues to advance. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has cancelled the administrative license for registering foreign trade enterprises, and currently over 100000 enterprises have enjoyed policy convenience; Actively supporting the development of new trade formats, facilitating cross-border e-commerce to handle foreign exchange transactions worth approximately 26 billion US dollars throughout the year; Continuously promoting cross-border financing facilitation, with policy coverage benefiting 1.3 million science and technology innovation enterprises; Continuing to deepen the construction of cross-border financial service platforms, we have helped over 100000 enterprises obtain financing exceeding 380 billion US dollars and facilitated nearly 2 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange payments; Optimize the fund management regulations for qualified overseas institutional investors to invest in domestic securities and futures, and orderly support domestic institutions to carry out cross-border securities investment. In the coming period, the trend of China's economy stabilizing and improving will be further consolidated, the overall balance of international payments will not change, the resilience of the foreign exchange market will continue to strengthen, and the RMB exchange rate is fully capable of maintaining basic stability Li Bin stated that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will better coordinate development and security, implement more proactive foreign exchange management policies, and help promote high-quality economic development and high-level opening up. In response to the exchange rate issue of social concern, Xuan Changneng stated, "We will continue to take comprehensive measures to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, strengthen market management, resolutely correct market pro cyclical behavior, resolutely deal with behaviors that disrupt market order, resolutely prevent exchange rate overshoot risks, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level." Comprehensively improving the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy and doing well in the "five major articles" of technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance is an important focus of financial services for the high-quality development of the real economy. At present, the policy frameworks in various fields are basically sound, and the structural monetary policy tools have achieved full coverage in all five aspects, with sustained effectiveness Zou Lan, spokesman of the People's Bank of China and director of the Monetary Policy Department, said that in terms of science and technology finance, the People's Bank of China will set up 500 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation refinancing in 2024, continue to improve the intensity and level of financial support for scientific and technological innovation, deepen the construction of scientific and technological innovation financial reform pilot zones, optimize the cross-border financing system and mechanism of scientific and technological enterprises, and build a diversified relay type scientific and technological financial system; In terms of green finance, we will optimize carbon reduction support tools and pilot the expansion of support scope to low-carbon transformation in Shanghai, guiding more credit resources towards green and low-carbon development; In terms of inclusive finance, the interest rate for agricultural and small loans has been reduced from 2% to 1.75%, and the amount has been increased by 100 billion yuan. Five special actions have been organized and implemented to provide financial support for the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas; We will continue to make efforts in pension finance and digital finance, and continuously strengthen institutional and market construction. Zou Lan stated that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will further improve the top-level institutional design, formulate guidance on the "five major articles" of finance, focus on key areas and weak links to refine policy measures, and comprehensively enhance the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy. One is to strengthen positive incentives, give full play to the driving role of structural monetary policy tools and macro credit policies, strengthen coordination with fiscal policies, guide financial institutions to increase credit resource investment and optimize credit structure. The second is to enhance the service capabilities of financial institutions, improve the internal incentive and restraint mechanisms of financial institutions, further enrich the spectrum of financial products, improve risk assessment capabilities and financial service technology levels. The third is to broaden financing channels, support enterprises to raise funds through markets such as bonds and equity, and increase the proportion of direct financing. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:People's Daily
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