The total amount of social logistics in the first 11 months exceeded 320 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%
2024-12-30
On December 29th, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the China Logistics Information Center released data showing that in the first 11 months, the total amount of social logistics in China was 320.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% calculated at comparable prices, and the growth rate was basically the same as the first 10 months; In November, the growth rate was 5.8%, which was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in October. Meng Yuan, Deputy Director of the Logistics Statistics Department of China Logistics Information Center, told reporters that in November, thanks to a series of policies to stabilize the economy and promote development, positive factors in economic operation continued to accumulate. Since the fourth quarter, multiple policy areas have been working together, and logistics demand and market size have steadily increased. Major operational indicators such as total social logistics and total logistics revenue have continued to rebound. At the same time, the operational efficiency of the supply chain has improved, inventory turnover in multiple fields has accelerated, and the operating costs of transportation, warehousing, and other sectors have shown a trend of returning to a reasonable range. At the micro level, logistics companies are operating well, financial pressure is easing, and future expectations are stable. Driven by positive factors, the quality and efficiency of logistics development have steadily improved, and the operational situation continues to improve. The demand for logistics is steadily increasing, driven by policies such as the implementation of major national strategies and the construction of safety capabilities in key areas, as well as large-scale equipment updates. With high-quality development in multiple fields such as industry, consumption, and imports, the total amount of social logistics has been optimized and adjusted. The rebound in industrial logistics demand is expanding, and new driving forces are accelerating their growth. In the first 11 months, the total amount of industrial logistics maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%; In November, the growth rate increased by 5.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than that in October. Meng Yuan stated that the scope of logistics recovery in the industrial sector continues to expand, with regional and industry logistics demand growth still exceeding 80%, industrial product production output growth exceeding 60%, and related logistics volume growth expanding compared to October. From a structural perspective, traditional manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are showing a trend of recovery in multiple fields. The import logistics has undergone phased adjustments, and the growth rate has remained basically stable. In the first 11 months, the total import logistics volume increased by 3.9% year-on-year; The year-on-year growth in November was 1.9%. The growth rate of imported goods in November has slowed down, partly due to the higher base period level of the previous year, and partly due to the slight tightening of the import quantity of some key intermediate goods, equipment components, etc. due to overseas production capacity restrictions Meng Yuan analyzed that. It is worth noting that innovative development in the green sector has been vigorously promoted, and the logistics of renewable resources continues to grow rapidly. In November, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cell products increased by 51.1% and 10.9% year-on-year, respectively. In Meng Yuan's view, under the promotion of policies to promote high-quality industrial development, the green transformation continues to deepen, and the demand for logistics in related fields is growing rapidly. On the one hand, innovative development in the field of new energy has been vigorously promoted, and the flow of green products continues to grow. On the other hand, green development models such as waste resource recycling and utilization are gradually improving, and related industries in various fields are gradually being standardized. In addition, policies such as "two new" (large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade in) are further promoting the release of renewable space for resources such as automobiles, home appliances, and machinery. According to data showing the stabilization and improvement of logistics supply and demand, the total revenue of the logistics industry in the first 11 months was 12.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points higher than the first 10 months. The growth rate has rebounded for three consecutive months. The average prosperity index of China's logistics industry in the first 11 months was 51.6%, and in November it was 52.8%, with a month on month increase of 0.2 percentage points. Meng Yuan stated that with the recovery and improvement of industrial demand, logistics services are quickly adapting, and coupled with the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, the overall logistics activity is steadily increasing. From an industry perspective, over 80% of the total business volume index is in the expansion range, while the railway, e-commerce, express delivery, and warehousing industry indices have rebounded and improved. Entering November, various fields such as water transportation, express delivery, and highways have entered the peak season, and the logistics supply and demand relationship continues to improve. The transportation and service price indices have continued to rise. In November, the logistics service price index in the logistics prosperity index rebounded month on month for two consecutive months. In November, the overall supply and demand in the logistics market improved, and prices in some transportation modes and sub sectors showed a trend of stabilizing and stopping the decline, which is conducive to improving the operating conditions of logistics enterprises. The growth rate of logistics business volume and logistics business revenue of key enterprises has accelerated and rebounded, while the decline in profits has slowed down Meng Yuan. The revenue of key enterprises has rebounded, and the decline in profits has narrowed. From the perspective of key investigations, in the first 11 months, the logistics business revenue of key surveyed logistics enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year. Driven by the rebound in upstream production and sales logistics demand, the recovery of business revenue accelerated, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points higher than the first 10 months. In November, the effectiveness of operational efficiency control and adjustment in the face of business recovery has begun to show, and the upward trend of costs has weakened. The logistics revenue per 100 yuan has fallen by 0.4 yuan compared to the previous 10 months, and the profit decline of logistics enterprises has slowed down compared to the previous period. Profits are expected to enter an improvement channel. From the later trend, Meng Yuan stated that the expected index of logistics enterprise business activities has remained in the high prosperity range of over 56% for four consecutive months, and logistics operations will continue to develop steadily with progress. The total amount of social logistics for the whole year is expected to exceed 360 trillion yuan, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP may decrease. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Securities Daily
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